Panic Greed Index has dropped to 25 today, falling into the extreme panic range, with yesterday's figure being 28. The geopolitical situation has yet to settle, but the market has already preemptively digested panic emotions.

The situation is intertwined with contradictions: A gunshot unexpectedly rang out in Washington, prompting an immediate upgrade of local security levels; however, the US side is privately negotiating with Iran through third-party channels to ease the situation. It is reported that Iran has reached a relevant consensus, agreeing to ceasefire, reopen shipping lanes, and unfreeze approximately $25 billion in related assets.

Both sides are still verbally confrontational in public, yet have finalized a framework for negotiation behind the scenes. The information barrier intensifies market divergence, with the crypto market being heavily influenced by emotions; most investors are only focused on conflict risks, leaving them unaware of private easing developments.

Panic emotions have indeed reached extreme levels, and the ultimate direction of the situation still holds uncertainties. In such extreme panic, is it a preemptive judgment of black swan risks, or is the market overly pessimistic setting the stage for a reversal?

The US stock market is closed on Monday, and is Bitcoin also "closed"? Now the price rebound is weak, relying on the positive expectations of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement to hold on. BTC's bullish volume continues to shrink on the 4-hour level, with daily trading volume concurrently declining, presenting a volume-price divergence pattern. The anticipated rebound range is between 78000-79500, and once the rebound reaches position, one can strategically lay out mid-term short positions. Many investors see $60,000 as a strong support bottom for Bitcoin, viewing any pullback as a good entry opportunity; while bears believe that $45,000 is the true bottom of this round. Coupled with continued significant outflows from ETF funds, the weekly chart is forming a head and shoulders top pattern, and the fifth wave of the downtrend has already begun.

Let me clarify one issue for everyone: 【Trading Plan】 does not represent precise strategies‼‼‼

What does this mean? Our plan is to go long if it breaks upward, and to go short if it breaks downward! However, this is just a plan; there’s a saying: plans cannot keep up with changes! Specific rise and fall situations need to be referenced against the magnitude of the change as well as the entry time and entry points, right?

Therefore, I would like to clarify one point to all followers: intraday short-term range trading and mid to long-term trend trading are entirely different operational logics and ideas! It’s not the case that just because I believe that Bitcoin can rise to 120,000+ in this bull market, I can only go long and can’t short! Especially since every year has 365 days, daily accurate strategies for intraday short-term trading will be provided; if bull markets only allow long positions and bear markets only allow short positions, then many friends would not experience losses in trading…

WeChat Official Account: Big Bull Talks Markets

The content of this article is solely for market situation analysis and personal thought discussions and does not constitute any investment advice, operational guidance, or trading basis. The crypto market is highly volatile and poses significant risks, with both geopolitical situations and market trends having uncertainties. All trading decisions should be independently judged by individuals, who assume all profits and losses; I am not responsible for any losses incurred from operations based on this information.

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