The crypto market this weekend once again staged a typical "news-driven short-squeeze." Positive news spurred a rapid rise in the market, forcing a large number of shorts to stop-loss and exit, creating an emotional short squeeze. But the problem is that this kind of good news doesn’t actually provide any real marginal increase; it’s more of a short-term catalyst for sentiment. As expected, Trump stated again today that the agreement has "not yet been finalized," and market sentiment quickly cooled down.
From the recent rhythm, news related to the US-Iran situation has increasingly resembled a repeatedly used "emotional tool." It releases signals of easing to stimulate the rise of risk assets while constantly creating uncertainty, allowing the market to harvest funds amid fluctuations. Essentially, the current market has entered a typical "news arbitrage phase" rather than a trend-driven phase.
More critically, from a broader perspective, the market does not have a real basis for continuous rising. Current global liquidity remains tight, and the Federal Reserve's reluctance to cut interest rates essentially cuts off the core liquidity source for risk assets. Without new funds continuously entering the market, it's challenging to form a genuine bull market trend; it can only rely on short-term news and sentiment to create wave after wave of quick pullbacks.
From a cyclical structure perspective, the daily chart has gradually entered the bottom area, and the demand for recovery after the oversold conditions is clearly present. However, the weekly level pressure remains heavy, and the market is currently in a game between "bottom repair" and "weekly suppression," with no clear direction emerging.
Overall, the most obvious characteristics of the current market are:
There is sentiment, but no sustainability;
There is a rebound, but no real trend.
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This article is originally published by [Huijing Community] and represents only personal views. Due to delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate with caution.
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