In the early hours of today, the cryptocurrency market received a significant positive signal. The U.S. and Iran are close to reaching a peace agreement, and global market risk sentiment has notably improved. Oil prices have plummeted by 6% below $94, directly easing inflation concerns and opening up room for a more relaxed Federal Reserve policy. Meanwhile, Coinbase's CEO announced eight visions, aiming at "on-chain Wall Street," signaling that traditional financial institutions are accelerating their layouts. These two pieces of news combined provide strong support for a rebound in BTC and ETH. However, the market is not smooth sailing, as the ESports project has sold off 178 million tokens, resulting in a 90% price drop, and the altcoin sector is under significant short-term pressure. Overall, the easing of geopolitical risks is the main theme, but capital market differences remain. We need data to verify the current real trend.

Current Price and Time

The current time is May 26th, 08:51, with BTC priced at 76,778 USDT, showing a 24-hour increase of only 0.33%, and is in a narrow range of fluctuation. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 30, indicating market sentiment is leaning towards fear, but prices have not significantly fallen, suggesting there is buying support below. BTC's market share is 58.25%, indicating that funds are still seeking shelter in mainstream coins.

Multi-Cycle Status Overview

First, let's look at the daily timeframe. BTC's daily MA5 is at 76,691, MA10 is at 76,991, and MA30 is at 78,548. The MACD’s DIF is -227.78, DEA is 162.05, and the histogram value is -389.82, indicating continued bearish momentum. The RSI is at 34.98, close to the oversold area. Overall, the daily timeframe is in a bearish trend, but the downward momentum is diminishing, showing signs of a bottom forming.

On the 4-hour level, MA5 is at 77,305, MA10 is at 77,116, and MA30 is at 76,792. The MACD's DIF is 94.56, DEA is -1.38, and the histogram value is 95.94, forming a golden cross signal. The RSI is at 58.71, in a neutral to strong region. A bullish rebound signal appears on the 4-hour level, but it has not yet broken through key resistance.

On the 1-hour level, MA5 is at 77,171, MA10 is at 77,377, and MA30 is at 77,249. The MACD’s DIF is 40.42, DEA is 136.65, and the histogram value is -96.23, indicating continued bearish momentum, but the histogram value is shortening. The RSI is at 33.65, close to oversold. EMA55 is at 77,006, and the current price of 76,778 is below EMA55, with the bearish trend dominant.

On the 15-minute level, MA5 is at 77,064, MA10 is at 77,153, and MA30 is at 77,349. The MACD’s DIF is -126.61, DEA is -83.23, and the histogram value is -43.38, indicating ongoing bearish momentum. The RSI is at 27.08, having entered the oversold region, indicating a short-term rebound demand.

In summary, the bearish trend in the daily and 1-hour levels has not changed, but a golden cross appears on the 4-hour level and the 15-minute shows oversold conditions; there are contradictions across multiple timeframes. The market is in a repair phase after a decline, and a directional choice is imminent.

TPV Signal Verification

According to the Qinglan TPV system, we use the 1-hour EMA55 as the division line for long and short positions. Currently, EMA55 is at 77,006 and the price is 76,778, confirming the bearish trend area.

Short-selling Condition Verification: First, the price is under pressure below the 1-hour EMA55 with two consecutive 1-hour K-line closing prices below 77,006, meeting the condition. Second, encountering a resistance pattern; the current price is near 76,778 with recent resistances at 77,006 and 77,300, but there has not been a clear long upper shadow or top distribution, partial morphological conditions are insufficient. Third, the rebound is weak; the MACD histogram has shortened for two consecutive cycles, but the RSI has risen from 33.65 without retreating from above 70, partially meeting momentum conditions. Overall, the short signal is weak.

Long Condition Verification: First, the price has not stabilized above EMA55, thus not meeting the condition. Second, support is stabilizing; the current price is at 76,778 with support at 76,500 and 76,000, but there has been no long lower shadow or bottom distribution, partial morphological conditions are insufficient. Third, the downward momentum is failing; the MACD histogram has shortened for two cycles, and the RSI has risen from below 30 to 33.65, partially meeting momentum conditions. Overall, the long signal is also weak.

Oscillation auxiliary data shows that in the past 8 1-hour K-lines, the closing prices above EMA55 occurred 7 times, with only 1 crossover, and the price is 0.30% away from EMA55, indicating a tight line fluctuation, with increased oscillation probability. However, the system determines it does not meet the oscillation threshold, suggesting it may be in a one-sided trend. Combined with the current price close to the line, it is recommended to treat it as an oscillation strategy and wait for a clear breakthrough.

On-Chain Capital Situation

In terms of on-chain data, the Fear and Greed Index is at 30, in the fear zone, historically corresponding to a phase bottom. BTC's market share is 58.25%, indicating that funds are concentrated in mainstream coins, while altcoins lack liquidity. The extension of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran for 60 days, the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and plummeting oil prices indicate that these macro positives are being transmitted to risky assets. However, the whale nemorino.eth has leveraged to buy at the bottom of ETH after a $2.14 million loss, indicating divergence among large holders, with some funds engaged in low-level speculation. Overall, on-chain sentiment is cautious, but positive factors are accumulating.

Key Offensive and Defensive Levels

The first resistance level above is the 1-hour EMA55 at 77,006, which is the division line between long and short; breaking through and stabilizing here confirms a strengthening bullish trend. The second resistance level is the 4-hour MA5 at 77,305; if broken with volume, it will open upward space to 78,000. The first support level below is 76,500, the recent low; if it drops below this level, it will test the 76,000 mark. The second support level is the daily MA5 at 76,691, which has some buying pressure. The key range is between 76,500 and 77,300, and the breakout direction will determine the subsequent trend.

Trading Thoughts

The current market is at a critical node of long and short contention; it is recommended to focus on a short-term oscillation strategy while waiting for a clear signal.

Direction: Temporarily observe, do not actively go long or short. If the price breaks through and stabilizes at 77,006, consider light long positions; if it drops below 76,500, consider light short positions.

Entry Conditions: For long, the price must have two consecutive 1-hour K-line closing prices above 77,006, and the MACD histogram must turn positive with RSI rising above 40. For short, the price must have two consecutive 1-hour K-line closing prices below 76,500, and the MACD histogram must amplify again with RSI falling below 30.

Stop-Loss Levels: For long, the stop-loss is set below 76,500; for short, the stop-loss is set above 77,300.

Target Levels: For long, the first target is 77,300, and the second target is 78,000. For short, the first target is 76,000, and the second target is 75,500.

Risk Warning

Easing geopolitical risks are positive, but Iran's tough stance and the Russia-Ukraine situation still carry uncertainties, and market sentiment may fluctuate, so it is imperative to control positions and implement strict stop-loss measures.

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