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Contract trading strategy
BTC
Technical analysis: Daily line stable above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, with core support validated multiple times at $76,500-$76,800 below, and key resistance at $77,800-$78,300 above.

Operation strategy:
- Steady long: Enter long with light positions in the $76,500-$76,800 range on pullback, stop loss at $75,800, target at $77,500-$78,000.
- Aggressive short: Enter short with light positions at resistance in the $77,800-$78,000 range on rebound, stop loss at $78,500, target at $77,000-$76,800.
- Wait and see: If the price oscillates narrowly in the $77,000-$77,500 range, it is recommended to wait for clearer direction.

ETH
Technical analysis: Linked to BTC with a weak bias, RSI<50, MACD green bars, bearish sentiment dominant, $2,080 as the lifeline today, $2,155 as the dividing line of strength.

Operation strategy:
- Steady long: Enter long with light positions on stabilization in the $2,080-$2,090 range on pullback, stop loss at $2,050, target at $2,130-$2,150.
- Aggressive short: Enter short with light positions at resistance in the $2,123-$2,146 range on rebound, stop loss at $2,150, target at $2,085-$2,060.
- Follow up on breakouts: If it falls below $2,080, may enter short with light positions, target at $2,058-$2,060; if stable above $2,155, may enter long with light positions, target at $2,185-$2,190.

SOL
Technical analysis: Oscillating in the $84-$87 range, the long-short ratio remains very high (Binance 2.95, OKX 2.84), retail sentiment is heavily bullish.

Operation strategy:
- Long on pullback: Enter long with light positions on pullback in the $84-$84.5 range, stop loss at $82, target at $87-$88.
- Short on rebound: Enter short with light positions at resistance in the $87-$88 range on rebound, stop loss at $90, target at $84-$85.
- Note: The long-short ratio is too high, beware of rapid declines caused by concentrated long position liquidations.

South Korea plans to strengthen cross-border cryptocurrency regulation: Today at 13:07, the South Korean Ministry of Finance approved the revision of the "Foreign Exchange Transaction Act", requiring cryptocurrency platforms engaging in cross-border remittance services to register with the South Korean Ministry of Finance and Economy, and report trading activities to the central bank, information will be shared with tax and customs departments.
- BlackRock's contradictory statement: Today at 13:00, BlackRock's Global Head of Fixed Income for Asia Pacific stated that "if forced to choose between interest rate hikes and cuts, the Federal Reserve has ample reason to choose cuts," contrasting sharply with the market's general expectation of a rate hike within the year.
- Continued outflows from ETFs: The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net redemptions for six consecutive trading days, with approximately $1.26 billion flowing out in the week from May 18-22, marking the largest single-week outflow record since 2026, with BlackRock having the largest share.
- Trump's media withdraws ETF application: Truth Social has withdrawn its application for spot Bitcoin and Bitcoin-Ethereum ETFs.
- U.S. lawmakers propose ARMA bill: Aims to formally establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the U.S.

Macroeconomic and financial situation

- Federal Reserve expectations: CME's "Fed Watch" shows a 99.9% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, and a 90.3% probability of keeping them unchanged in July, with the market betting on a 66.9% probability of no rate cuts this year.
- Liquidation data: In the past 24 hours, global cryptocurrency market liquidations amount to approximately $120 million, predominantly from long positions, with $45.17 million in long liquidations for BTC in just 4 hours, and only $9.52 million from shorts.
- Whale movements: The number of wallets holding at least 100 BTC has significantly increased recently, indicating large investors are continuing to accumulate while retail sentiment is low.

Short-term impact (intraday - 3 days)

- Continued oscillating pattern: The market is at a crucial node of the bull-bear game, with ETF fund outflows and large whale accumulation forming a hedge, lacking clear direction.
- Limited impact from South Korean regulation: Primarily affects the domestic market, with a smaller impact on the global market, but may raise concerns about other countries following suit to strengthen cross-border regulation.
- BlackRock's statement brings hope: As the world's largest asset management firm, its views may change the market's expectations of Federal Reserve policy, providing some support for risk assets.
- U.S. market determines direction: U.S. markets will be closed today for Memorial Day, but the futures market will still have trading; evening market funds will determine the final intraday direction.

Mid-term impact (1-2 weeks)

- Progress of the CLARITY Act: If this bill passes the Senate and is signed, it will enshrine the commodity status of mainstream assets like BTC and ETH into federal law, expected to bring about $15 billion in new ETF inflows.
- Federal Reserve June meeting: The June 18th Federal Reserve interest rate decision and dot plot will be the most important catalyst for the market; if a dovish signal is released, the cryptocurrency market is expected to rebound.
- Capital rotation: Institutional funds are shifting from Bitcoin to XRP and Solana, as these two assets perform well in terms of regulatory benefits and ecosystem development.

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