From June 3 to 4, 2026, two exorbitant fundraising events ignited imagination in the primary market simultaneously: SpaceX confirmed IPO terms, planning to issue 555.6 million shares at $135 each, targeting to raise approximately $75 billion, which corresponds to an estimated valuation of about $1.77 trillion; almost at the same time, Alphabet raised its equity fundraising target from $80 billion to $84.75 billion and received several times oversubscription, as if all long-term capital was vying for tickets to the narratives of technology and space. However, on June 4, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with cryptocurrency stocks like Coinbase and Robinhood dropping about 6% that day, and the previous day, the U.S. dollar index had already surged 0.31% to close at 99.529, indicating a rising risk-averse sentiment—while the primary market embraced the long-term growth curve of SpaceX and Alphabet, the secondary market was evading short-term risks amidst the dollar's strength and sell-offs. This sense of "front-stage frenzy, back-stage braking" is the starting point for understanding all the market drama of these two days.

SpaceX and Alphabet: Primary Market Frenzy

While the secondary market was ruthlessly dumping risk assets towards the dollar, the primary market was pricing for the next few decades. SpaceX finalized IPO terms in early June 2026: planning to issue 555.6 million shares of common stock at $135 each, intending to raise about $75 billion, which implies a target valuation of around $1.77 trillion based on the issuance price, directly elevating itself into the realm of global market capitalization. If it successfully lists at this valuation, it stands to become one of the largest IPOs in history, telling a story of “long-term technology + AI infrastructure” at a staggering price—it's not about the current profit statement, but about paying for the long-term options interwoven with rockets, satellites, and computing power.

Behind this round of premium is a certain acquiescence to the power structure. Musk holds about 82.4% of the voting rights in SpaceX, meaning that even as a public company, the vast majority of significant decisions will remain locked in the hands of the founder. Investors are aware of this but simultaneously “voted with their feet” regarding Alphabet's subscription: this established tech giant raised its equity fundraising scale from $80 billion to $84.75 billion, ultimately obtaining several times oversubscription. Both transactions centered on narratives of technology and AI, demonstrating that in the face of geopolitical friction and short-term volatility, large funds still choose to bet on the long-term growth trajectory of a few platform tech companies and strong founders, and this greed for the “future” sharply contrasts with the risk-averse stance in the secondary market, embodying the essence of primary market frenzy.

Cloud Computing Drops Hard and Chip Stocks Rise Against the Trend

The U.S. stock market on June 4 superficially appeared to be experiencing a “normal pullback” with all three major indices closing lower, but the truly striking aspect was the widening price gap within the tech sector. The funds that had been scrambling in the primary market for SpaceX and Alphabet abruptly turned and mercilessly cut down the most “narrative-driven” segment in the secondary market: the leading players in cloud computing and software were collectively repriced downwards. Microsoft dropped over 3%, Amazon over 2%, and Oracle over 5%, a list of names that should have been the strongest consensus in the AI and cloud era, now being re-labeled as “high Beta” discount assets under the shadows of uncertainty in U.S.-Iran negotiations and a strengthening dollar. Funds began to pose a simple yet brutal question: in times of elevated risk premium, which stocks have the most elastic valuations and the largest room for retracement should be the first to be released.

Conversely, chip and storage manufacturers were pushing against the trend. SanDisk rose over 6% and Western Digital rose over 5%, standing out exceptionally against the backdrop of overall index declines, as if funds were silently migrating within the tech sector—from subscription revenues and long-term visions in the cloud back to the tangible underlying capacities of computing power and storage. At the same time, what was considered high Beta risk assets, cryptocurrency stocks, faced simultaneous sell-offs, with Coinbase down about 6.31% and Robinhood down about 6.00%. With both cloud computing and cryptocurrency as emotional levers being cut, it indicated that the risk appetite in the secondary market was rapidly contracting, with investors no longer willing to pay for the most aggressive tech narratives, but rather redrawing the risk map within technology with real capital.

Ceasefire or Mild Conflict: U.S.-Iran Negotiations Intensify

Behind the rapid braking of sentiment in the secondary market are the final few lines of text that have yet to materialize at the negotiation table. The U.S. and Iran are tugging between ceasefire and compensation surrounding Iran's proposed four-phase agreement: the first phase is designed as a “ceasefire,” while the second phase immediately ties the safety of the Strait of Hormuz to the lifting of sanctions. Iran's logic is that security concessions must progress in tandem with sanction relief. U.S. officials have pointed out that “economic compensation” is one of the present issues—Tehran wishes to receive some form of economic compensation quickly once the preliminary understanding memorandum is signed, while the Trump team requires a new agreement that can be publicly claimed to be “clearly superior to the Obama-era plan.” Under such narrative pressure, negotiations are forced to pile stronger symbolic language in the text, yet cannot effectively lower the firepower on the battlefield.

Trump exposed this awkward situation in public statements: he admits that the so-called ceasefire there is merely “a mild escalation of hostilities,” emphasizing that the ceasefire in that region is “entirely different” from others. Almost on the same narrative line, Iran claims to have struck a U.S. Navy command ship but did not provide specific details about the time and place, lacking multi-party verification, while U.S. responses in publicly reported statements also remained vague. This “action without detail” information structure is already sufficient for the market— the ceasefire as defined by the highest decision-makers as “mild conflict,” while the attack on the warship hangs in detail blurs, combined with the safe-haven buying reflected in the dollar index's rise on June 3, forms a geopolitical backdrop that cannot be overlooked when investors reassess risk premiums.

The Safe-Haven Chain of a Stronger Dollar and Weaker Risk Assets

When Iran bundles the ceasefire, the safety of the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions relief into its four-phase plan, while simultaneously seeking prompt economic compensation through mediation with the U.S., and claims to have struck U.S. Navy command ships without providing details, the “uncertainty range” of the negotiations has rapidly expanded. It’s difficult for the market to predict whether this will lead to an agreement or a misjudgment, and they can only initially discard the weakest link. On June 3, the dollar index rose by 0.31%, closing at 99.529, completing the first step in the traditional script of “geopolitical tension—dollar buying backflow”: as the world’s primary reserve currency, it has been regarded as a short-term value storage haven under this ambiguous and dangerous narrative, with risk appetite forced to take a backseat.

The very next day, June 4, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed lower, with leading declines in cloud computing and software, and cryptocurrency stocks becoming the first choice for sell-offs: Coinbase and Robinhood, among other high-volatility stocks, fell about 6%, manifesting risk-averse sentiment into candlestick patterns. On the surface, this represents yet another squeezing of the valuations of tech growth stocks, but in reality, it is the result of risk aversion being transmitted downstream in the chain—while capital was lining up in the primary market to vie for long-term funding in massive, narratively clear firms like SpaceX and Alphabet, in the secondary market, it actively pressured down the pricing of high Beta assets, shrinking the immediately tradable volatility exposures to a minimum. In the context of U.S.-Iran negotiations possibly sliding from “mild conflict” to more intense confrontation at any moment, the stronger dollar alongside declining risk assets is not contradictory, but rather two sides of the same coin: institutions would rather lock in relatively safe bets in dollars and top issuers, than continue to pay higher premiums for optimistic stories on short-term price curves.

Reassessing Technology and Cryptocurrency Risks Between Ice and Fire

The primary market is lining up for a super IPO of SpaceX, valued at approximately $1.77 trillion and aiming to raise about $75 billion, while at the same time, Alphabet raised its issuance from $80 billion to $84.75 billion, still receiving several times oversubscription; meanwhile, the U.S. stock index pulls back, with Microsoft, Amazon, and Oracle leading declines, and cryptocurrency stocks collectively plummeting, while the dollar index notably strengthened on June 3, and the U.S.-Iran negotiations fluctuate between the four-phase plan and “economic compensation.” In the secondary market, however, a sell-off of high Beta assets adds pressure to short-term macro and geopolitical risks. For investors in tech stocks and cryptocurrency, the current moment resembles an inquiry about rhythm: is it a misreading of emotional fluctuations associated with sectors sensitive to historical interest rate expectations and geopolitical conflicts as a fundamental reversal, or a recognition that valuation, interest rates, wartime considerations, and long-term technology curves inherently diverge and lag? Moving forward, the trading feedback after SpaceX's IPO listing will tell us whether the optimism in the primary market can sustain the high volatility of the secondary market; whether U.S.-Iran negotiations are progressing toward verifiable easing or are continually dragged back to escalation by sporadic conflict events will determine how long the safe-haven dollar can last; and whether the back and forth between the dollar and risk assets will evolve into a short-term scare or a long-term repricing of technology and cryptocurrency risk premiums will be the starting point for all stories after 2026.

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