On June 4, 2026, the news feed appeared like a portrait of risk assets being torn in four directions at once: on one side, the San Francisco AI startup Lassie announced the completion of a $35 million Series A round led by a16z, bringing its total fundraising to about $47 million, as the primary market continues to rush into “AI new stories”; on the other side, AVGO, a key supplier in the AI industry chain, provided revenue guidance that fell short of expectations, causing its stock price to plunge nearly 14% in after-hours trading, further amplifying the vulnerabilities of the supply chain characterized by “high valuation + high sensitivity.” On the cryptocurrency side, Coinbase, in coordination with the U.S. Department of Justice, froze over $3 million in assets related to a Southeast Asian fraud network, while mainstream platforms are gravitating towards compliance and law enforcement, yet former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes simultaneously liquidated all of his HYPE and NEAR holdings and left the true reason for this action for a Tuesday article titled “Reality Check,” adding another layer of suspense to the already weak sentiment in the cryptocurrency space. Distant flames come from the Middle East: although Israel had previously agreed to a conditional ceasefire, reports indicated that it still launched attacks on Lebanon, overshadowing the market with energy and geopolitical risk, and on this day, the interweaving of AI speculative funds, regulatory crackdowns, and clouds of war seemed to conduct a concentrated stress test on global risk assets regarding future pricing discrepancies.

Lassie secures $35 million: AI startups still cashing in

At the same time that macro sentiment was stifled by news of war and regulations, a standard “AI hot money” story emerged from San Francisco. The AI startup Lassie announced the completion of a $35 million Series A financing round, led by a16z, which never hesitates to bet on new narratives, with Night Capital participating alongside founders from well-known tech companies such as Superhuman, Plaid, and Wise, pushing the company’s current total fundraising to approximately $47 million. While the secondary market debates whether the valuation is overstretched, the primary market's money has already rushed into the latest batch of “AI storytelling” targets.

Opening up Lassie’s equity structure makes it hard not to notice that this is a typical combination of “insiders + tech narrative” betting. The founding team members Steijn Pelle and Frédéric Renken both previously worked at Silicon Valley star companies like Robinhood and Superhuman, and now they are repackaging their networks and auras into a new project under a different banner, while sitting in the audience are familiar players from a16z and a group of tech company founders, all sharing a tacit understanding of each other’s backgrounds, rhythms, and exit strategies. In this setup, AI remains the most valuable keyword: at the same time, AVGO was cut by about 13.78% in after-hours trading merely for providing revenue guidance below previous expectations, while early projects like Lassie still manage to attract significantly premium funding, revealing the divergence in risk pricing approaches between the primary market's optimism about AI and the secondary market's high sensitivity towards the AI supply chain.

AVGO guidance hits a snag: A financial report tears the AI supply chain

In the same time window, while the primary market grants premiums to early-stage AI projects like Lassie, the secondary market focuses closely on key suppliers. AVGO only provided a “below previous widespread expectations” revenue guidance in its financial report, with Herman Jin disclosing that the stock price was immediately slashed by about 13.78%. He believes this is not a bomb capable of triggering systemic risk; the position of AVGO and the overall AI order flow did not fundamentally reverse because of this guidance adjustment, and the business fundamentals of the key supplier still stand firm.

What has truly been torn apart is the thin membrane of valuation narrative. Herman Jin cautions that fundamentals do not equal trading performance, and at the current high valuation of the AI industry chain, the market's tolerance for “just a little bit off” is virtually zero— even leading suppliers, if their future outlook falls short by a few lines in seller Excel sheets, face double-digit declines in after-hours trading to align with expectations. In sharp contrast, Lassie is still able to complete a funding round in San Francisco, securing a $35 million Series A led by a16z, bringing total financing up to about $47 million, with founders and VCs shaking hands in front, while behind the scenes, secondary assets like AVGO are forced to squeeze out bubbles, creating a misalignment of “primary optimism, secondary tightness” in the AI cycle, which thus becomes a theme that requires continuous vigilance.

Compliance crackdown vs liquidation escape: Cryptocurrency market at a crossroads

While AI stocks are still being repeatedly priced based on a guidance range, the cryptocurrency world is witnessing a different kind of “repricing.” In a new round of operations led by the U.S. Department of Justice targeting cryptocurrency fraud against U.S. citizens, Coinbase announced it would freeze over $3 million in crypto assets linked to a Southeast Asian fraud network, marking the first time its name appeared alongside tech giants like Meta, Microsoft, and Starlink in the same action report. Law enforcement agencies are targeting servers and custody infrastructures, tech companies are responsible for “cutting the lines,” and exchanges for “locking accounts,” forming a complete chain of compliance and anti-fraud collaboration, with mainstream platforms presenting a more high-profile narrative of “safety foundation” to regulators and the public.

However, nearly on the same timeline, the body language of the old players seems closer to retreat rather than offense. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes openly stated that he has liquidated all of his HYPE and NEAR positions and announced he would explain the reasons in an article titled “Reality Check” next Tuesday, an action that many market participants interpreted as a signal for “risk aversion” or even “profit-taking” regarding the current market conditions; meanwhile, discussions around the decline of retail participation and cooling spot trading have become increasingly intense. On one side, companies like Coinbase are repairing trust with compliance endorsements, while on the other side, Hayes's cash exit serves as a precaution against the “retail exodus, cooling spot trading” narrative, creating a cryptocurrency market that is torn between regulatory benefits and the exiting of old money, exposing profound disagreements regarding the upcoming risk-return structure.

From the Iran war to AI IPOs: The macro winds Hayes is betting on

In the matter of liquidating HYPE and NEAR, Hayes does not merely present a simple “I’ve made enough, so I’m leaving,” but rather an entire macro narrative: the Iran war is still unfolding, the inventory replenishment cycle has begun, and he predicts that energy prices will rise as a result; from now until early Q3, three major AI companies are expected to hold concentrated IPOs; and on a political level, he even anticipates that Trump will shift to opposing AI during his campaign to mobilize voters and help the Republican Party win. Rising energy costs, combined with a surge in primary market supplies and potential policy hostility, point to the same conclusion in Hayes’s view— that the existing high valuations and expectations for the AI sector are losing their dual moats of macro and narrative protection.

If energy prices indeed begin a trend of upward movement as he predicts, the growth narrative will be diluted by higher operational costs and thicker risk premiums, while the IPOs of three major AI projects will mean new chips and valuation anchoring being constantly thrown into the secondary market; should the uncertainties brought by Trump’s anti-AI shift be added to the regulatory and public opinion landscape, AI assets will no longer be considered merely a symbol of “high growth,” but rather as vulnerable high-beta assets subjected to the squeeze of policy and cycles. Echoing this are the developments in the Middle East, which are also accelerating this perception of risk: Lebanese state media reported that despite the previous conditional ceasefire agreement, Israel still launched attacks on Lebanon, reminding the market that the Iran war and broader tensions in the Middle East could raise energy and geopolitical risk premiums at any moment. As both energy and geopolitical clouds loom, AI stocks and cryptocurrencies are high-beta assets that are easily prone to face discounts at valuations and can suffer withdrawals during emotional stresses, and Hayes's decision to exit at this moment is a timely response to these macro shifts.

Pricing the future amid AI frenzy and shadows of war

The primary market is still elevating bids for San Francisco AI startups like Lassie, with a16z writing a $35 million Series A check, raising total funding to about $47 million; meanwhile, in the same time window, AVGO as a key supplier issued revenue guidance below expectations, causing its stock price to drop nearly fourteen percent in after-hours trading, indicating that in the secondary market, even if the fundamentals have not been identified as a “systemic issue,” the AI supply chain has already entered a phase where tolerance for error is nearly zero. In the cryptocurrency world, another tearing action is simultaneously unfolding: on one side, Coinbase collaborates with the U.S. Department of Justice, Meta, Microsoft, and Starlink to freeze over $3 million in assets from a Southeast Asian fraud network, representing the leading platforms' alignment towards compliance and law enforcement; on the other side, Arthur Hayes empties his HYPE and NEAR holdings, in line with the narrative of “retail exit, spot trading cooling,” combined with incidents of attacks resuming between Lebanon and Israel after a conditional ceasefire, forcing the market to re-account for Middle Eastern risks and future energy prices into discount rates. Against this backdrop of rising macro and geopolitical uncertainties, Elon Musk is both confirming on social media that X Money is gradually “expanding its availability” and systematically advancing a new payment network while quietly building foundational channels for capital circulation and asset holding. In the next phase, the timing of IPOs for the major AI projects mentioned by Arthur Hayes, the specific trajectory of energy prices under the Iran war and inventory replenishment logic, and how regulatory law enforcement evolves around cryptocurrencies and AI will jointly determine whether these two high-beta tracks are forced to continue towards bubbles or gain a more selective upward opportunity in the next risk premium reevaluation.

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