Today, there are really many foreign media regarding Fud #BTC. Will MicroStrategy become the biggest thunder in this cycle?!
Last night, $STRC closed at 94.65. To be honest, I am a bit anxious!
Today, I just happened to discuss this with a friend, and one point came up: "Why does MicroStrategy give the market an interest rate of 11.5% or even 13%?"
Are they being generous for charity? Of course not. As we all know, the current risk-free rate, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, is only about 4.5%. This extra 700 to 850 basis points is actually the "risk premium" they get by risking their lives.
This yield essentially tells the market that the risks are not small. Currently, those junk bonds rated CCC in the market have interest rates of about 12%. However, if you buy this kind of bond, the risk aspect shows a 24.5% chance of losing everything within a year, and the probability of not surviving three years is as high as 43%.
In the end, my friend and I agreed that this kind of high interest in a counter-cyclical context is theoretically unsustainable, and such a windfall will not just fall from the sky!
From the actual situation, there are really only two institutional funds that understand the industry and have invested in STRC so far. And one of them is a passive index tracking preferred stock fund, which counts as automatic machine buying.
So in the end, we discussed the most core question: how to fix this situation!
Let's speculate about what possible actions Strategy might take next; seemingly, the results aren’t very favorable for #BTC!
If MicroStrategy sells MSTR to pay dividends, that is a downright Ponzi scheme.
If MicroStrategy sells Bitcoin to pay dividends, that is a standard death spiral.
If MicroStrategy sells STRC to buy Bitcoin, the shares of us common shareholders will be "diluted" to nothing in the future.
If Strategy uses the dollar reserves on hand to pay off debts, that is basically a slow suicide by seeking death.
The only rescue plan now is either Trump shouting something, or a structural bill being implemented, or the U.S. Bitcoin reserve bill being passed!
Right now, it really feels a bit unsolvable, and it seems every cycle there is a company being sacrificed. Let's slowly dollar-cost average, don’t invest all at once; in the long term, I still believe #BTC will reach 500,000 dollars!! 🧐
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