Good evening everyone, I am Xinya. Well, good afternoon everyone, I am Xinya. I didn't expect that at the beginning of June, Bitcoin would plummet, leading to a chain reaction. Within twenty-four hours, 280,000 people were liquidated for 1.66 billion, pushing some of the remaining believers out of the market. You should know that Xinya mentioned in April that there would be major movements in the cryptocurrency market in June. Clearly, the market is as expected, yet unexpected.

The reasons for the plunge are numerous: continuous outflow of institutional funds, exhaustion of incremental buying, large holders fleeing, and the most important reason is the chain liquidation. If you remember, last week the maximum pain point for Bitcoin options this Friday was 78,000, and now it's 69,000. Even stranger, in the following days it hovers around 65,000. It can be anticipated that the bulls have been completely annihilated. From June 1 to now, Bitcoin dropped from a low of 73,800 to around 61,300, losing 12,500 points.

This trend has already formed a bearish pattern. People are worried for two reasons: they either fear that the market will crash again after a brief pause like it did in early February, or they are concerned about a rebound similar to what happened on February 6. Not to mention you already know that market sentiment is like a flood; the places that should have rebounded these days have all been washed away, and all the gains since February of this year have been swallowed up. It is advised not to go against the trend.

The current price of Bitcoin is already below half of the highest point of the bull market at 126,000. Ethereum is currently at 1,750; if it drops another hundred points, it will reach a third of the bull market's peak of 4,950. In April 2025, Bitcoin's starting point at its highest was around 74,500, 11,500 points above the current price, about 18%. Ethereum was at 1,385, down 370 points from the current price, about 21%. Very strange, right?

Usually, when the same direction and different frequencies have been going on for so long, now it's become so cheap. Referencing Ethereum, Bitcoin has significant room to regress below, while Ethereum, when referencing Bitcoin, can only rise to the peak and drop point at the end of April. It's hard to judge, right? This is natural. The old major players have exited the market, and naturally, the market style has changed. Now let's start extrapolating. A market purely driven by emotion, indicators have lost their effectiveness, and there's no need for backtesting. It is worth noting that on June 3 at noon, there was a rebound at 65,800, with the rebound at 67,500. After another drop below, Bitcoin plunged 4,500 points, and the rebound point after the plunge was at 64,800.

Mark all these positions. Continuous plunges, by the weekend, if this one-hour drop is complete, there will be a one-hour consolidation. Today's rebound has already limited the potential for further rebounds; the range will be within 61,200-64,800, possibly widening a bit up and down, but it won't break through 65,800 because 65,000 serves as resistance. In this situation, trading within 61,000-64,000 is suitable.

A market driven purely by emotion with indicators failing, and no need for backtesting,
it is important to note that on June 3 at noon, there was a rebound at 65,800, with the rebound at 67,500. After another drop below, Bitcoin plunged 4,500 points, and the rebound point after the plunge was at 64,800. Mark all these positions.

Continuous plunges, by the weekend, if this one-hour drop is complete, there will be a one-hour consolidation, and the range will not be large. Today's rebound has already limited potential for more rebounds; the range will be between 61,200 and 64,800, possibly widening a bit, but it won't break through 65,800 because 65,000 acts as resistance. In this situation, trading within 61,000-64,000 is suitable.

The second scenario is an extension of the four-hour decline because there is no reliable support below. The daily downtrend is still in progress, and the four-hour decline may extend to 58,500. This process may see a one-hour move down, with a fifteen-minute upward rebound in the fluctuation, potentially leading to the market situation at the end of June 2024. At that time, it dropped from 71,500 to 58,800, then rebounded to 63,000, and dropped again to around 54,000. The situations are different, and we ignore the price but can reference the structure.

The likelihood of a direct plunge is very low. The reasonable approach is a stair-step decline. The next segment of the market will be around 54,500. The closer it gets to the mining cost, but it's a bear market, haha. It's quite normal to filter out those without sufficient strength in mining.

The third scenario is to consolidate before plunging again. The possibilities for the future may resemble early February, where a downward spike is followed by a rebound, completing a two-sided liquidation. This possibility might show a v-shape or even a w-shape structure.

This corresponds possibly to consolidating before a plunge. It might be like these past two days' gradual declines before plunging. It may take a while to hover around 61,200 before plunging again, with the downward space possibly around 58,800 or 59,500. The subsequent rebound might first return to the 61,500 range, and we will look at the struggle beyond that.

The second and third scenarios are actually very close; only the process may be mixed with rebounds caused by emotional resistance. Additionally, the third scenario holds the possibility of bulls overcoming, leading to a change in structure again. Therefore, the best course of action is to short during rebounds. Possible entry points are 63,000 and 64,500. Shorting rebounds should only be done on a very small scale, as the risks are high. Now that it has dropped to this level, there are many opportunities; make your own choice.

Let's move forward together, official account: Xinya Talks Chan

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