$135 per share, 555.6 million shares, $1.77 trillion.
SpaceX has pegged the IPO price here. According to the S-1/A submitted to the SEC by SpaceX on June 3 and the FWP roadshow materials filed on June 4, the company plans to issue 555.6 million Class A common shares at a price of $135 per share, with the stock expected to be listed on Nasdaq and Nasdaq Texas under the ticker SPCX. After deducting underwriting discounts and issuance expenses, the company expects to net approximately $74.4 billion, which could rise to about $85.7 billion if underwriters fully exercise their over-allotment option.
The real question thrown to the market in the roadshow is not "how much is a rocket company worth." What SpaceX repeatedly emphasizes in the materials is another matter: space transportation, satellite connectivity, and AI computing power are being bundled into the same balance sheet.
According to the same FWP roadshow materials, SpaceX describes itself as the only company building a three-layer hardware and software infrastructure for space, connectivity, and AI simultaneously. The space business is responsible for reducing the cost of access to orbit, Starlink is responsible for extending connectivity beyond ground, sea, air, and mobile networks, while the AI business integrates xAI, Grok, X, and the Colossus computing clusters into a single narrative.
SpaceX roadshow documents
The numbers presented are sufficiently large. According to the roadshow materials, SpaceX has accounted for over 80% of global orbital mass since 2023, with approximately 650 launches, operating over 9,600 Starlink satellites, and around 10.3 million Starlink users across 164 countries and regions. Grok and X have about 550 million monthly active users, with X posting approximately 350 million tweets daily, and the AI computing infrastructure has a nominal power consumption of over 1GW.
This is where Wall Street's largest divergence lies now.
SpaceX claims to be selling infrastructure. Skeptics say it is packaging infrastructure, AI, and Musk's personal premium together for sale.
First, let’s look at the hardest segment in the roadshow. Connectivity is currently the part most resembling "public company business." According to the roadshow materials, Connectivity is projected to generate $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $7.2 billion, up from 2024's revenue of $7.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 billion. The Space segment is projected to have $4.1 billion in revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $700 million in 2025. The AI segment is projected to have $3.2 billion in revenue, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.2 billion.
These three bills make for a very unbalanced SpaceX. Starlink is profitable, the rockets provide deployment capability, and AI is burning money while contributing valuation elasticity.
According to the roadshow materials, SpaceX's total revenue for 2025 is projected at $18.7 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.6 billion, but a GAAP net loss of $4.9 billion. Capital expenditures are expected to rise from $4.4 billion in 2023 to $11.2 billion in 2024, and then to $20.7 billion in 2025. By the first quarter of 2026, the company is still projected to report a GAAP net loss of $4.3 billion.
In stock market language, this is not a mature profit stock. This is a stock that sells future infrastructure control to the public market early.
The first wave of responses from Wall Street acknowledges that the story has changed.
Fund manager Mike Alves states in an article that investors should not only look at the top valuations of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion; the real question is whether SpaceX is building the infrastructure layer for the next-generation economy. Shaun Davies, associate professor of finance at the University of Colorado Boulder, describes SpaceX as a hybrid of aerospace, communication infrastructure, defense technology, and AI. Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University, aligns closer to the roadshow's narrative, believing that growth is driven by combining communication, data, and AI in new ways through space.
This is the core logic of the bulls. Don't compare SpaceX with Boeing, AT&T, or traditional aerospace companies. What it sells is a set of hard-to-replicate infrastructure entry points.
Reuters mentions that at least one institutional investor has privately refrained from comparing SpaceX with Boeing or AT&T but is looking at companies like Palantir, GE Vernova, and Vertiv, which have been revalued due to AI infrastructure. PitchBook analyst Franco Granda states directly in the same report that investors today are paying for platform premiums, betting on tomorrow's monopolistic economy in infrastructure.
However, this algorithm also has its own awkwardness. At a valuation of $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is equivalent to about 110 times the estimated revenue for 2025, which is even more expensive than Palantir on certain metrics. According to S&P Capital IQ data, with a market value of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion and total revenue for the past 12 months ending March 31, 2026, SpaceX’s price-to-sales ratio would be about 90 times to 103 times, surpassing all seven major companies and significantly higher than Tesla’s price-to-sales ratio of about 16 times at that time.
Bulls can accept this price because they do not see SpaceX as a rocket company. Bears cannot accept this price because SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company.
The valuation divergence becomes clearer from here.
The first line is $780 billion. Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens' first coverage of SpaceX gives a fair value estimate of $780 billion, less than half of the IPO target valuation. Owens' concerns center on the AI business, believing that Grok is not currently a leading AI lab, and technologies like orbital data centers remain unproven, suggesting that investors may find safer entry points post-IPO.
The second line is between $1.22 trillion and $1.29 trillion. NYU Stern School of Business professor Aswath Damodaran's valuation model, based on the limited financial data available at the time, sets a baseline valuation of $1.22 trillion, with a median value of $1.29 trillion after 10,000 simulations. He acknowledges that SpaceX is an engineering marvel and boasts significant competitive advantages, but his bottom line is clear: if priced at $1.75 trillion or even $2 trillion, the upside for buyers is minimal.
The third line is $1.25 trillion. Baillie Gifford's Scottish Mortgage held SpaceX at a valuation of $1.25 trillion as of March 31, 2026, emphasizing that the valuation is based on verifiable transactions rather than media speculation. This number is intriguing. Scottish Mortgage is a long-term holder; it does not short SpaceX, but it has not directly followed through to the $1.75 trillion target.
Only above this is SpaceX's own estimated price for the public market: $1.77 trillion.
When these four numbers are presented together, they paint the real picture of SpaceX on Wall Street today.
It's not just about shouting buy while simultaneously shouting sell. It resembles a price range more: $780 billion serves as a conservative anchor from fundamentals, $1.22 trillion to $1.29 trillion is the result of Damodaran's narrative and cash flow compromise, $1.25 trillion is the holding mark from existing institutions, and $1.77 trillion is the price SpaceX is prepared to let the public market take on.
The trading sentiment on social platforms is even more direct. Accounts like Ticker Wire, Surmount, VirtualBacon on X focus not on discounted cash flow but on $75 billion in fundraising, a $1.75 trillion valuation, potential index buying, and the trading rhythm of possible IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic after SpaceX. They view SpaceX as a liquidity event, not a company to be painstakingly dissected in Excel.
This is also the warning given by Scott Sacknoff. SPADE Defense Index manager Scott Sacknoff believes that the SpaceX IPO has pushed mainstream investor enthusiasm to near irrational exuberance levels, with the stock prices of publicly traded space companies having risen 60% to 100% this year. At a valuation of $1.75 trillion, those likely to make real profits resemble traders more than buy-and-hold investors.
Traders look at supply and demand, while long-term investors focus on the path to valuation realization.
This path has three checkpoints.
The first checkpoint is Starlink. It must continue to convert user growth, ARPU, mobile connections, and enterprise government customers into cash flow. SpaceX's roadshow places Connectivity within a $1.6 trillion potential market, with Starlink Broadband representing $870 billion and Starlink Mobile representing $740 billion. This market is not small, but the public market will first focus on the quality of revenue rather than TAM.
The second checkpoint is AI. SpaceX's roadshow claims a long-term AI opportunity of $26.5 trillion and outlines a roadmap for deploying AI computing satellites starting in 2028. Reuters Breakingviews characterized this market statement as "planetary absurdity" on April 24, for a simple reason: the total potential market of $28.5 trillion exceeds more than one-fifth of global GDP. This is not to say that AI has no value, but rather that SpaceX is betting valuation elasticity on the hardest-to-verify segment.
The third checkpoint is governance discount. According to SpaceX's S-1/A, under the equity structure after this issuance, Musk will control about 82.4% of the voting rights of common stock. Class B common stock carries 10 votes per share, while Class A shares carry 1 vote each. A public letter to SpaceX dated May 13 from New York City Comptroller, New York State Comptroller, and CalPERS CEO states that the combined asset management scale of the three representatives exceeds $1 trillion and demands that SpaceX adopt a one-share, one-vote system, or set a sunset clause of no more than seven years for super-voting rights.
Mike Alves of Kiplinger offers a bullish version of this explanation. He opines that in ordinary companies, such control might be a dealbreaker, but the market for SpaceX may consider "gaining exposure" more important than governance. The implication here is that investors are not buying governance rights but options on Musk continuing to steer the ship.
This roadshow has rewritten SpaceX from a rocket company into an infrastructure complex. What Wall Street now needs to do is decide how much of this complex is real cash flow, how much is future technology roadmap, and how much is Musk's premium.
If only looking at the roadshow, SpaceX has told a very complete story. Rockets bring costs down, Starlink connects users, AI brings in computing demand, and orbital computing continues to raise the ceiling.
If one observes Wall Street's reactions, another story is also quite complete.
Morningstar is waiting for lower prices, Damodaran is waiting for a major correction, Scottish Mortgage has not marked its holdings to the IPO target price, PitchBook and some institutions are looking for reasons to justify platform premiums, trading accounts are focused on potential index buying and short-term liquidity, and pension systems are monitoring control rights.
There is no controversy over SpaceX's rockets. The debate lies in how much investors are willing to pay for the entire sky behind the rockets.
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