Brothers, recently CZ spoke out: "Bitcoin won't 'die' too long, everyone don't panic." How should this sentence be interpreted? It means: Bitcoin cannot collapse, and right now, don't blindly sell off, the bull market will come soon.

First, let's talk about the original intention behind his words. As the founder ofBinance, holding one of the world's leading exchanges, if the market falls into panic and everyone rushes to sell, the overall trading ecology of the exchange will also be affected. So, it makes sense for him to come forward to calm the emotions. It's not that he is deliberately misleading everyone, but rather that his perspective is different, and his words will carry commercial considerations. Overall, it is truly encouraging everyone to hold on and patiently await the next bull market.

Now, let's objectively analyze the rationality of this statement. First of all, saying "Bitcoin won't die" is completely justifiable when viewed from a long-term perspective. Throughout its journey, Bitcoin has been predicted to "go to zero" multiple times, yet it continues to operate robustly. Based on market data and cyclical analysis, I believe that around October this year, we will see the bear market bottom, which is commonly referred to as thegolden pit, with the bottom price likely above 40,000, and a new bull market phase likely beginning early next year. Secondly, "don't panic" suggests that during market declines, emotional trading is most likely to lead to mistakes and losses; remaining calm is fundamentally a basic principle of trading.

Of course, there are ambiguous aspects to this statement. The phrase "won't die too long" does not specify a clear timeframe; it could be a week, a month, or longer, which remains undefined. Using comforting words to calm emotions reflects more of a psychological guidance rather than being based on technical or data-driven market analysis. However, in the current market slump, it is overall a good thing when someone steps up to bolster confidence. A steadily developing industry benefits us all, and the crypto space will certainly not fall silent.

Returning to the Bitcoin market; looking at multi-dimensional data: from the volume analysis, neither the four-hour nor daily levels have shown effective bullish volume, and outside capital has not entered the market. Instead, the bullish force continues to weaken. Looking at on-chain data, institutions are currently reducing their BTC holdings on a large scale, with significant players frequently selling off, while smart money and miners are gradually exiting, leaving retail and ordinary investors to take over.

The macro environment is also not optimistic: the U.S. May CPI reached 4.2%, and Japan's interest rate hike is also on the agenda; combined with various events diverting market liquidity and major platforms launching U.S. stock services further withdrawing funds, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has already become a high-probability event.

In summary, there is no doubt that Bitcoin will have no issues for long-term development, but in the medium term, 6-12 months will still be in a downward cycle. Now is definitely not the bottom, and the 60,000 threshold is by no means the endpoint of the decline; in the second half of the year, it is very likely that we will see Bitcoin at the 40,000 level.

Finally, I would like to share my perspective: CZ's views can be taken as a reference to stabilize mindset, but they must not be treated as trading basis. He is an exchange operator who views the market with a long-term cycle orientation, which is completely different from the logic of short-term trading andswing trading.

When making decisions, we should rely on market patterns, capital volume, and real on-chain data. Currently, these three signals are highly consistent: a rebound presents an opportunity to short, primarily following the trend. The first target looks at 60,000, with the ultimate target of this adjustment seen in the range of 42,000-45,000.

Public account: Big Bull Says Market

The above content is only a sharing of market data and personal opinions and does not constitute any trading advice. The market is highly volatile, please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。