On June 12, bitcoin breached the $64,000 mark as enthusiasm was sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement that Washington and Tehran had reached a deal to end hostilities. Market data show that after breaking the $63,000 resistance level shortly after Trump’s announcement Thursday afternoon, bitcoin largely oscillated between $63,200 and $63,800 until after 2 a.m. EST, when a sell-off wave briefly dragged it to $62,805.

Some three hours later, the cryptocurrency had risen to $63,800, a gain of roughly $1,000, but it could not hold the gains as another sell-off saw it tumble to just over $63,000. Bitcoin’s third rally in a 24-hour window ultimately saw it reach $64,349, its highest price level in the last seven days. At the time of writing at 12:45 p.m. EST, the cryptocurrency traded just below $63,900, leaving it with a daily gain of nearly 2%.

The modest increase pushed bitcoin’s seven-day gains to 4.5% and helped lift its market capitalization to $1.28 trillion. On the derivatives market, bitcoin’s price action resulted in the liquidation of $68 million in leveraged shorts and $20 million in longs.

While global markets initially rallied on news of the tentative accord, skeptical observers quickly countered that the deal remained dead in the water without formal Iranian ratification. That skepticism proved warranted just hours later when Iranian state media, citing high-level government sources, began systematically dismantling Trump’s narrative of a breakthrough. By the morning of June 12, a wave of reports confirmed Tehran’s outright denial of the agreement, triggering a swift and characteristically sharp rhetorical retaliation from Trump against Iranian leadership.

Yet, the ensuing volatility failed to rattle broader markets. While the initial outbreak of hostilities and April’s subsequent ceasefire declaration sent shockwaves through traditional assets and bitcoin alike, seasoned investors appear to have priced in a protracted, turbulent diplomatic timeline. This collective indifference to the geopolitical back-and-forth is reflected across asset classes.

To illustrate, benchmark Brent and WTI crude oil prices trended steadily downward over a week that, paradoxically, saw direct military exchanges between U.S. and Iranian forces. Market data show Brent crude slid from $97 a barrel on Monday to $87 by Friday afternoon, while WTI dropped from $94 to $84. Global equities similarly shrugged off the escalating war of words, with major indices resiliently closing the week in positive territory.

However, despite bitcoin’s temporary alignment with macro markets, its June 12 performance fails to mask a deeper structural vulnerability: a lack of liquidity. A Bitunix analyst highlighted that spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) bled roughly $405 million over the past week, capping off a massive $5.49 billion in net outflows over the past month. These outflows suggest that cooling tensions in the Middle East will not be enough to sustain a prolonged bitcoin rally.

“Even as geopolitical risks temporarily ease, institutional capital has yet to demonstrate a meaningful return to the sector. As a result, the market remains caught between liquidity recovery and a persistently high interest-rate environment. If gold competes with the U.S. dollar, then Bitcoin is ultimately competing with global liquidity,” the analyst said.

According to Bitunix, that dynamic may prove to be the most important theme for investors to monitor in the cryptocurrency market in the months ahead.

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