The fires of war in the Middle East have not truly been extinguished, yet the market has already begun to bet on the "peace dividend." On June 12, the Strait of Hormuz, a key global energy corridor, was announced to be fully open. A few days later, on June 15, the U.S. and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding related to the ceasefire—this MOU aims to lay the framework for ending the current Middle East conflict and subsequent negotiations, but there remains a significant distance to a true peace treaty. Some provisions began to take effect that day, requiring the reopening of the Strait and the lifting of the blockade on Iran, but the actual restoration of shipping and energy supplies will still take time. U.S. President Trump rushed to sell the results to voters, declaring, "The agreement has been fully signed. The Strait of Hormuz was completely opened on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped significantly while the stock market is rising," which actually highlighted the market's immediate intuitive response: the war risk premium began to be rapidly unwound, energy prices fell back, and funds flowed back into the stock market and other risk assets. The IMF president was more restrained, reminding that although the global economy remained relatively stable after months of war in the Middle East, the recovery of energy supplies still had a time lag, meaning risks were not fully cleared. In this misaligned narrative, an unavoidable question emerged: as risk-averse sentiment cooled and the war premium receded, would Bitcoin, which some investors had viewed as a "digital safe-haven asset" during heightened conflict, be reevaluated as a volatile risk chip, or could it still maintain a pricing premium of safe-haven narrative under the new geopolitical and macroeconomic environment?

From the brink of war to electronic signing: how the ceasefire suddenly landed

What truly accelerated the ceasefire process was not a carefully choreographed peace summit, but rather a series of nearly uncontrollable "critical points." On June 13, 2026, Iran's Supreme National Security Council initially approved the memorandum framework, providing domestic political authorization for potential ceasefire and reopening of Hormuz; a day later, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Beirut, Lebanon on June 14, prompting Iran to prepare for a large-scale strike against Israel, pushing the Middle Eastern battlefield closer to complete chaos after months of deadlock. As this red line was repeatedly approached, Trump intervened, the U.S. side threw out new concession conditions, and Iran assessed that the agreement was "generally in its interest," with negotiations not interrupted by missile preparations but rather pushed toward the signing point amid the flames. Ultimately, on June 15, the U.S. and Iran completed the electronic signing of the memorandum related to the ceasefire and agreed to hold a formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on June 19, with some provisions already in effect from the date of the electronic signing.

However, the ceasefire does not appear to be "all settled," as Trump claimed. On the same day he boldly announced that "the agreement has been fully signed," U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance publicly reminded that there were "many details to be finalized later"; Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian added from another angle: even if the memorandum might bring economic opportunities, Iran could not depend on it, as the entire plan was based on "lack of trust in U.S. past behavior." More crucially, as of June 16, the complete text of this memorandum had not been made public, leaving outsiders to piece together the contours of the provisions from fragmented statements, and the U.S. made it clear that it would not immediately reduce its troops in the Middle East during negotiations, only considering adjustments to military deployments at the level of a "final agreement." Under such a high degree of asymmetry in information and mutual trust gaps, this document resembled more of a "letter of intent for ceasefire," paving the way for cooling hostilities and reopening Hormuz rather than a definitive peace solution capable of reshaping the regional security architecture.

Reopening Hormuz: the slow-motion return of tankers and risk premium

The Strait of Hormuz itself is a price scale for this war. When hostilities escalate, this crucial global oil and gas corridor is "potentially closed," and every dollar on the futures market has to pay for the imagination of supply disruption, with oil prices driven higher by war premiums, and international shipping forced to reroute, slow down, or even come to a halt. On June 12, the news of "Hormuz fully opened" broke ahead of the electronic signing of the memorandum on June 15, effectively giving the market a "calming agent" as a precursor to "reopening the corridor." Trump then showcased the results of the agreement with "oil prices plummeting, and the stock market rising," and the market indeed began to unwind some of the risk premium under extreme conflict scenarios, pulling prices back from a narrative of collapse to a range of "manageable tension."

However, between the announcement and the restoration of shipping, there exists an entire realistic industrial chain. Although the memorandum specifies the requirements to reopen the Strait and lift the blockade on Iran, it did not provide a clear execution rhythm; some provisions took effect from June 15, but it made it difficult for shipowners and traders to determine when normal shipping routes could truly resume. IMF President Georgieva pointed this out: the announcement of the agreement does not equate to tankers immediately sailing at full capacity; the restoration of energy supply and shipping order takes time. More importantly, the U.S. has already stated that it would not reduce its troops in the Middle East during the negotiation phase, considering withdrawal only after a certain "final agreement" is reached, which means the regional security structure remains unchanged, and the intent for ceasefire might be overturned by unexpected incidents at the frontlines. Reopening Hormuz brought about a phase compression of the oil price war premium, but this compression resembled a slowly replaying video: any execution flaws or escalation of the situation could force the market to add the risk premium back in.

Stock market cheers, SpaceX surges: a collective bet on risk assets

Following the electronic signing of the ceasefire memorandum and the announcement of Hormuz's complete opening on June 12, the traditional stock market instinctively began to rewrite the "war script." With the Middle Eastern conflict persisting for months and oil transport routes once considered potentially out of control, the market had paid a hefty risk premium for the shock to energy supply and the prospect of larger-scale war. Now, the U.S. and Iran have at least provided a "ceasefire framework" on paper, with key corridors reopening, and the IMF repeatedly emphasizing that the global economy remains relatively stable, which provides macroeconomic support for the return of funds to risk assets. Trump frankly tied this emotional turnaround to the statement—"the agreement has been fully signed. The Strait of Hormuz was completely opened on Friday. Importantly, oil prices have dropped significantly while the stock market is rising," directly linking the stock market's immediate rebound with the signing of the agreement and the reopening of shipping lanes.

The most sensitive and daring to bet are still tech and growth assets. According to single-source data, SpaceX surged over 10% on June 16, with its market value reaching approximately $2.33 trillion, seen by many traders as a symbolic transaction of "risk preference recovery": in a world where expectations of ceasefire are rising, energy pressures are temporarily alleviating, and the "overall stability" mentioned by the IMF is still underpinning, yet U.S. troops have not pulled out of the Middle East, the choice of funds is not to entirely reduce positions, but rather to increase exposure to high-growth stories under manageable risks. Even though the complete text of the memorandum had still not been disclosed as of June 16, and details and trust gaps could bring reversals at any moment, the market had already expressed its stance with real money: as long as the war does not escalate further, high-beta assets are worth betting on once again, and this risk preference warming that spreads from the stock market will likely continue to spill over into Bitcoin and other high-volatility assets in the coming days.

Risk-averse sentiment cools? Bitcoin distances itself from war narratives

During the tensest phase of the Middle Eastern war, the market once paired Bitcoin and gold in the same line of research reports: both being "insurance policies" against geopolitical conflicts and currency devaluation. When the Strait of Hormuz was threatened and oil price risk premiums continued to rise, this narrative had ample emotional soil—should there be further accidents in the energy shipping corridors, funds would have reason to shift some chips to digital assets "distant enough from the reality in the Middle East." However, when Hormuz was announced fully open on June 12, and the U.S. and Iran electronically finalized the ceasefire-related memorandum on June 15, with Trump’s bold declaration that "oil prices have dropped significantly while the stock market is rising," the urgency of this "war insurance" was swiftly diluted.

As the risk-averse narrative recedes, Bitcoin has been drawn back to its old position as a "high-beta risk asset." With SpaceX surging more than 10% on June 16 and its market value pushed to about $2.33 trillion, it became a hallmark example of this risk preference recovery, and the "momentum chasing story" of these tech growth stocks had often resonated in tandem with the sentiment for crypto assets. At this moment, some investors observing the reopening of Hormuz and the ceasefire progress appear to be confirming the premise of "the war is temporarily controllable, energy pressure is marginally alleviated," and then leverage both in the stock market and crypto assets, rather than viewing Bitcoin as a safe haven against risks. However, the IMF continues to remind that one should maintain "high vigilance" regarding the situation, as the memorandum text has not been publicly disclosed, trust gaps still exist, and U.S. deployments have not been immediately reduced. Under this structural unease, the crypto market might quickly switch from "risk preference narrative" back to "geopolitical risk narrative" at any new attack or negotiation obstruction news, oscillating between these two narratives.

Agreement undecided, military force not withdrawn: undercurrents in an optimistic market

Surrounding this memorandum related to the ceasefire, the market follows a familiar path: first rushing to trade optimism in the headlines of "hostilities cooling, Hormuz reopening," then stopping to wait for details. The decline in oil prices and Bitcoin unwinding risk premiums both illustrate the "first trade sentiment, later wait for text" pattern. The problem is that until June 16, 2026, the complete terms had still not been made public, while the U.S. simultaneously stressed that it would not reduce its troops in the Middle East before achieving a final agreement. This indicates that the memorandum resembles more of a ceasefire framework for starting discussions rather than a peaceful resolution capable of altering the balance of power in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian has publicly warned domestic entities not to bet on economic prospects in this agreement and explicitly stated that the plan is based on distrust of U.S. past behavior; the IMF acknowledges that global growth has not noticeably slowed while maintaining a high alert on the Middle Eastern war, reminding that there is a time lag in recovering energy supplies and shipping orders. The result is that after the first wave of optimism, there is both a space for retracement and a risk of secondary pricing for oil prices and crypto assets: the formal signing ceremony in Switzerland on June 19, the actual rhythm of shipping recovery in Hormuz, and whether subsequent negotiations move towards a final agreement or revert again will jointly determine whether the current "risk preference recovery" represents a new cycle beginning for oil prices and Bitcoin or a temporary reprieve under the shadows of war.

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