This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author here shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their nuances; expands on investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still being validated—these may not necessarily be direct wealth indicators, but may simply be the questions themselves; shares observations gained during interactions with industry practitioners; and those materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of members of the Odaily editorial team, does not accept any form of business advertising, nor does it constitute investment advice (after all, we are just as experienced in losing money). Its purpose is merely to expand perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, official X account) to engage, question, and joke around.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Introduction: Vegetables, in multiple studies

Share: 1. Recently, my operations have become slightly more frequent than before. I took a small-scale opportunity in Crypto during the downturn a few days ago (mainly BTC), but the entry points were overall quite high (6.2-6.6), resulting in basically no profit; on the US stock side, I made a small additional investment in HOOD, as explained in an article written a couple of days ago. Additionally, I'm engaging with the World Cup prediction market while doing some small, high-frequency following (trying out a new tool, feeling pretty good about it temporarily, will recommend it after a few more days) + making large, low-frequency proactive orders.

2. HYPE has performed well recently, but I'm increasingly feeling that “the more expensive HYPE is, the more detrimental it is to Hyperliquid.” The reason being, the most imaginative narrative around Hyperliquid was to build a multi-type asset trading ecosystem around HIP-3, but now trade.xyz dominates the HIP-3 project, with Felix and Ventuals shutting down in succession... The excessively high HYPE price has in fact become an obstacle to the expansion of the HIP-3 blueprint (building custom markets based on HIP-3 has a staking requirement of 500,000 HYPE, which amounts to over 35 million dollars at the current price). The previous market vision was “Hyperliquid + countless custom markets,” but the current situation is “Hyperliquid + trade.xyz.” If the upper-tier market solidifies into only trade.xyz, it clearly does not meet the market expectations of user outreach and prospects.

Suzz (@aidongshoupai)

Introduction: Just sold off SK Hynix

Share: The market is never short of opportunities, but it is always short of calm funds and mindset. Capital markets are perpetually fluid, and the market does not end simply because one has missed an opportunity. Today’s missed short-term surges, missed hot sectors, missed bottom trends, are just insignificant points among countless opportunities in the market. The market operates day by day, with new and old themes alternating, cycles of rising and falling recurring; missing this ride means the next opportunity will come soon. Investing does not require seizing every market movement; we only need to grasp opportunities within our own understanding range and risk control. Obsessing over past opportunities and being consumed by anxiety is the biggest trap in investing. Rather than wasting energy on missing out, it’s better to improve oneself, enhance awareness, and wait for the next opportunity that belongs to us.

In addition, reviewing past trading history, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: when we look back from a hindsight perspective, we easily find excellent opportunities everywhere. Looking back at last year, last month, or even a few weeks ago, we can always clearly see which assets were at low points, which sectors were about to explode, and which trends were worth investing heavily in, as if there were profitable opportunities available everywhere back then.

But falling into "hindsight thinking," we always see the market clearly after the fact, yet feel confused and helpless in the present. In fact, this phenomenon precisely validates a core truth: there have been countless opportunities in history, and there are indeed always opportunities in the present. Past opportunities have never disappeared; it was just that we lacked understanding and had a restless mindset then, unable to recognize or dare to seize them; similarly, at this moment, the market still harbors numerous investment opportunities of varying levels and risks.

golem (@web3_golem)

Introduction: Golem's ingenious ideas

Share: On June 16, SpaceX announced the acquisition of AI programming tool Cursor’s parent company Anysphere for $60 billion. This acquisition is essentially a mutually beneficial arrangement; Musk needs the developer data from Cursor to train his AI model Grok, while Anysphere needs the massive computational power behind SpaceX to train its AI model Composer to compete against its former partner Anthropic's model.

However, aside from the strategic significance for both parties, a detail easily overlooked regarding this acquisition is its impact on SpaceX's stock price, as Musk actually spent no cash at all; the acquisition was entirely funded through SpaceX's Class A common stock.

According to SEC filing documents, SpaceX implemented the merger with Anysphere through its wholly-owned subsidiary X67 Inc., which will merge into Anysphere, with Cursor becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of SpaceX. Upon completion of the merger, all common and preferred shares of Anysphere will convert into SpaceX Class A common stock, with the exchange ratio calculated based on the volume-weighted average price over the 7 trading days prior to delivery.

Clearly, in this acquisition, Musk gained a larger advantage by using SpaceX stock for payment, allowing him to leverage the company's currently high market capitalization to complete the acquisition with relatively small equity, thus the actual cost of the acquisition is much lower, mostly just bubble valuation...

Now, the key question arises: as of June 16, the date the merger agreement was signed, only 3 trading days had passed since SpaceX went public, so is it possible that the "Musk interest group" will proactively stabilize SpaceX's trading volume and market cap at high levels to make the acquisition cheaper and with less equity?

Of course, there is no strong causality between the two; it is merely an analytical speculation affecting SPCX's stock price.

SPCX's current price is primarily driven by market sentiment. According to data from Vanda Track over the past few days, SpaceX remains the most sought-after stock among retail investors, topping the net inflow list of U.S. stocks for several days in a row. However, the enthusiasm of retail investors is bound to fade, and "belief" does have a price; at that time, institutions will need to be the ones to take over the baton and become the main force stabilizing SPCX's price.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Introduction: Tea servant, crypto soy sauce faction, media observer

Share: 1. BTC rebounded slightly. The Iran-US situation has eased; I still hold a bullish view overall and will consider shorting at 68k-69k;

2. The SpaceX IPO ended, but it did not close above the $2.2 trillion market cap that day, resulting in a loss of $10; however, I expect to see over 250 after it enters the Nasdaq in July;

3. I’m doing some small-scale testing in the World Cup, noticing that there were many upsets or draws in the first two days of the group stage, especially the 0:0 match between Spain and Cape Verde, which probably surprised many. Over the past few days, the strong teams’ winning rates have improved; currently, I’m optimistic about France, Argentina, Germany, and Norway, and will focus on them going forward.

4. The stock markets in Japan and South Korea continue to surge, and the trend of the strong getting stronger is still evident. The next key event is the Fed interest rate hike or the Anthropic/OpenAI IPO. Personally, I believe Anthropic is likely to achieve another record IPO after SpaceX, with a market cap potentially rising to $2-3 trillion. Recently, I saw a post shared by a group member stating that "the AI industry, like real estate, is a capital-intensive industry"; I found that reasoning quite insightful, so considering defensive investments in selling shovels is a good idea.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Introduction: Options enthusiast, meme flipper

Share: In terms of operations, last week HYPE dropped to around 56 dollars, I pushed for a long position and gradually sold off after reaching 70 dollars. Selling was not out of pessimism, but rather I believe there will be difficulties in a major breakthrough in the short term; however, in the long term, I think 50-60 dollars will become an important support area, and I plan to continue buying at this level for two reasons: first, in this wave of traditional assets going on-chain, Hyperliquid has basically reaped the largest dividends, with transaction fees continuously skyrocketing and HYPE repurchase volume surging, averaging over 60 million dollars in repurchases per month over the past six months. It should be noted that 97-99% of transaction fee revenue on the Hyperliquid platform is directly used for repurchasing HYPE in the open market; currently, no other exchange does this, which is the largest growth wheel. The second reason is that since the listing of the HYPE spot ETF, it has accumulated a net inflow of 180 million dollars, with an average daily net inflow of 7.5 million dollars, and traditional capital's preference for HYPE is evident, which is a treatment not seen with other crypto ETFs.

Regarding ETH, the market is experiencing a very strange situation: pure crypto investors are utterly disappointed with ETH—because the price performance over the past few years has been very poor, leading to lost opportunity costs; traditional investors, particularly those on Wall Street represented by Tom Lee, are instead continually increasing their investment in ETH, believing it to be an undervalued "Amazon." Neither side can convince the other, so let time decide. Personally, I believe ETH has really fallen to "cabbage prices"; your current entry cost is even lower than Bitmine.

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