Written Before the Federal Reserve's June Meeting

At two o'clock in the morning on Thursday, the Federal Reserve's June meeting will take place. First, the interest rate will not change; it will neither increase nor decrease, remaining at 3.75%.

Secondly, at two o'clock, the dot plot will be released, and this dot plot is very important.

The priority is to look at the interest rate adjustment expectations for 2026. If it is less than 1 time, then the market sentiment will not be friendly, as the March dot plot still expected a rate cut in 2026.

If it is equal to 1 time, it indicates alignment with the March forecast, and the Federal Reserve will believe that oil prices can drop once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, so they can maintain their previous stance. However, this is very similar to the political outcome of being less than 1 time, where Trump's supporters are few within the Federal Reserve.

But if it is greater than 1 time, then it is good news for the market, indicating one of two situations: either Federal Reserve officials believe that inflation will be controlled in the future, allowing them to adopt an optimistic approach towards easing, or that Trump's faction has gained the upper hand, though this possibility is not very high.

Next, look at the interest rate adjustment expectations for 2027. In March, it was also projected to be a rate cut of one time. Similarly, if it exceeds 1 time, it indicates that the Federal Reserve is relatively optimistic about falling inflation. If it is 1 time or less, the market might become quite conflicted.

Finally, there is Waller's speech. Personally, I expect Waller to adopt a neutral but slightly dovish stance today, as Trump at the very least needs to signal the possibility of easing. If Waller maintains a neutral but hawkish stance like Powell, it could be very unfavorable for Trump, especially since it will be Waller's first public appearance, and he should provide Trump with a passable answer.

Of course, there is no need to excessively "flatter" Trump; maintaining neutrality and focusing on data is quite normal. However, as long as some readiness for easing is suitably communicated while remaining neutral, it will be interpreted as slightly dovish. There may be many reporters asking foolish questions during this Q&A session.

Let's listen and then speak. I will continue to provide full translation live.

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