After a slight rebound during the day, Bitcoin began to test its lowest point, reaching around 64500 in the evening. Ethereum rose to around 1810 before retreating to around 1740. The overall market briefly entered a rebound mode in the evening, and it may initially welcome a small rebound before continuing the downward trend. The specific approach is as follows.

First, from a fundamental perspective:
The Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate meeting is currently in progress, with the decision to be announced on June 18 at dawn. The market almost fully expects the interest rate to remain unchanged, but the focus is on the statement regarding future policy directions at the meeting chaired for the first time by the new Fed Chair, Waller. The market's probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve within 2026 has dropped to 0%, while the probability of a rate hike of at least 25 basis points in December has reached about 70%. Federal funds futures indicate that investors expect the probability of a rate hike before December 2026 to exceed 80%.

On June 15, the US and Iran confirmed to have reached a ceasefire memorandum, with the official signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Geneva. Boosted by this, Bitcoin experienced a rebound, as the easing of geopolitical risk premiums provided some support for risk assets. Therefore, recent short positions still need to exercise caution and trade lightly for speculation. The most concerning aspect of trading is uncertainty in the fundamentals; according to the charts, there is a demand for a decline, while in the short term, the fundamentals provide support. However, I personally believe that the impact of news is only temporary and will ultimately revert to technical analysis.

In the evening, Bitcoin quickly recovered after temporarily breaking below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. The recent rebound did not change the bearish arrangement of the moving averages, with resistance near the 21-day moving average around 67800. Resistance is also present around 67400 from the four-hour Bollinger upper band and the 144 moving average. The current short-term resistance is around 66300, and there is additional resistance above 66666 to (67400-67800). Strong resistance is around 68500, which is unlikely to reach. These levels can be used to place light short bets again, with the specific strategy as follows.

Bitcoin should pay attention to the resistance near the current price of 66300-66666-67800. A firm stabilization above 68500 must be closely monitored, with a target focus on the lower levels of 65000-64000-63200-62200.

Currently, the fundamentals are dominating the market, and everything should focus on light trading. Do not blindly go all in! Pay special attention to Waller's speech in the morning, which only represents personal opinions.

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