As expected, the interest rates did not change.

The focus is on the dot plot. Waller indeed did not submit his own dot plot; among the 19 members, there are only 17 dots, so it is expected that Waller did not submit.

From the display, this time's dot plot is more on the tightening side, and the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has been eliminated.

Trump will probably be very disappointed; however, given the current trend, it seems normal, and there is still September. If inflation can really decline, there should be a chance for a new dot plot in September, and there may even be a rate cut in the fourth quarter. After all, the fourth quarter is the mid-term election.

However, the expectation of a rate cut in 2027 has been retained; this data is the same as in March, indicating that the Federal Reserve still thinks that inflation will decrease by 2027. Of course, that is still a bit early, but the data for 2026 may disappoint the market.

Next, we will see Waller's speech. From the current trend, after the dot plot was released, both the S&P and Nasdaq experienced slight declines, and the market's expectations are slightly pessimistic. It remains to be seen whether Waller will say something that can boost the market.

I personally estimate that Waller is likely to be neutral to slightly dovish, which can stabilize the market a bit; I’m not sure if my expectations are correct.

We will meet again at the press conference at 2:30 PM.

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