In the 2026 dot plot, the distribution of the predictions for interest rates by 19 FOMC participants at the end of 2026 is as follows:

1 person expects an increase of 75 basis points.

5 people expect an increase of 50 basis points.

3 people expect an increase of 25 basis points.

8 people believe the current interest rate midpoint should be maintained.

Only 1 person expects a decrease of 25 basis points.

Overall, there are 9 participants who expect an increase, the most of which is 8 who expect no change, while only a very few, precisely 1, clearly expect a decrease. The median ultimately falls around 3.8%, indicating an overall inclination to maintain higher levels, with very weak expectations for rate cuts.

This data shows that Trump has almost no say within the Federal Reserve.

I will try to live-translate the interest rate meeting at 2:30 below.

Official live stream link (English): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKllbvCaWvo

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