After completing the weekly gap closure yesterday, the Nasdaq recorded two consecutive bearish candles, and the cryptocurrency market simultaneously entered a corrective rhythm. Recently, it has become evident that the correlation between the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market has strengthened again. When the overall risk appetite for risk assets decreases, the cryptocurrency market often faces greater selling pressure.
From a cyclical structure perspective, the cryptocurrency market at the daily level has already entered a high zone. If this round of rebound cannot break through previous highs and form effective volume, it is highly probable that it will enter a topping phase. What the market currently lacks most is incremental capital, and the rebound is more about oversold repair rather than the initiation of a new bull market.
It is worth noting that Bitcoin has retraced nearly 50% from its historical high of $126,000 and has entered a typical medium-term adjustment range. Although the ETF has experienced net outflows for five consecutive weeks, the outflow speed has obviously slowed down, and some institutions have started to accumulate against the trend around the $60,000 level. This indicates that the market is gradually transitioning from panic selling to a stage of value betting.
On the macro level, as the FOMC meeting approaches, the market's divergence regarding future interest rate paths has increased, and short-term volatility may further amplify. The recent typical V-shaped reversal in the oil market followed by another drop also indicates that funds remain cautious about future economic growth expectations. Historical experience shows:
When oil prices rise, inflation heats up, and risk assets are pressured;
When oil prices drop, liquidity expectations improve, and risk assets benefit.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has formed a relatively obvious step-like decline structure in the short cycle. Although the 1-hour, 2-hour, and 4-hour cycles are gradually approaching the oversold area, indicating a demand for technical rebound, the 8-hour and 12-hour cycles still maintain a bearish trend, and the daily chart is starting to show topping characteristics.
Currently, the area of $64,700—$65,000 coincides significantly with the key Fibonacci retracement levels and Elliott wave correction ranges, making it a very important battleground for bulls and bears. If the rebound cannot effectively stabilize above this area, the market will continue to maintain a bearish pattern in high-level oscillations.
Overall:
The overall direction remains bearish, and the main strategy is to sell on rallies;
Buying at low levels is only for short-term auxiliary trading;
Before there is a unified resonance in the larger cycle, the market will continue to maintain wide oscillations.
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This article is published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents only personal views. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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