Yesterday, the Nasdaq rebounded strongly after filling the weekly gap, rising about 2%, providing a breather for risk assets overall. However, in sharp contrast to U.S. stocks, the cryptocurrency market displayed obvious weakness despite a synchronized recovery. Both the upward space and the intensity of fund follow-up are far inferior to the Nasdaq, indicating that market confidence remains insufficient at this stage.

From a structural perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has entered a high zone. If this rebound fails to break through the previous high and form effective volume, it is likely forming a phase top. Recently, every rebound in the market has shown characteristics of "rising with no volume, retreating with volume," where the bulls have consistently failed to form sustained attacks.

On the macro level, the hawkish signals released by the Federal Reserve's June meeting continue to ferment. The high-interest-rate environment may persist longer than the market expects, and the continued net outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds indicates that institutional risk appetite has yet to recover significantly. Liquidity contraction and insufficient incremental funds remain core issues suppressing the market.

Technically, the daily chart has formed a typical "Three Black Crows" bearish pattern, with prices continuously operating below the main moving average system. Although there has been short-term recovery following the Nasdaq, the overall rebound strength is weak, resembling a technical pullback during a downward process rather than a trend reversal.

Regarding Bitcoin, the small cycle has formed a fairly obvious step-like downward structure. Bears still hold the pricing power in the market; before effectively breaking through and stabilizing in the 63800—64300 area, any rebound should be regarded as short-cycle repair. The 62000 area below has become the current key support band; if it fails, the market may test lower ranges again.

From the volume observation, the volume has continued to shrink during the rebound process, indicating a significant lack of chasing funds. The biggest characteristic of the current market is:

Prices are rebounding, but funds are on the sidelines;
Indices are rising, but confidence has not returned.

Overall, the market is still in a weak pattern dominated by bears, and before the trend is completely reversed, the high-pressure area remains noteworthy.
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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to the inherent delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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