The third week of June is about to close, and from the weekly structure, the market still retains obvious characteristics of a bottom consolidation. Although there has been persistent weak volatility recently, the strength of the bears in driving down prices further is weakening. However, there is still room for adjustment at the daily level, as the time cycles and price structures have not yet fully repaired.

There is a clear divergence in the cycles. The 15-minute, 8-hour, and 12-hour cycles are still in an upward phase, while most intraday cycles are maintaining a corrective rhythm. This state of opposing long and short cycles often indicates that the market is waiting for a new directional choice. Until the cycles form a unified resonance, the oscillation will remain the main theme.

The macro level remains unimpressive. Recent hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve have reinforced expectations for high interest rates, and the market has even begun discussing the possibility of further rate hikes in 2026, putting overall pressure on risk assets. At the same time, the current Bitcoin mining cost has risen to about $78,000, which is higher than the current market price, compressing the profits of some miners and leaving room for potential selling pressure to realize profits.

From a funding perspective, roughly $600 million in long contracts were forcibly liquidated across the network in the past 24 hours, rapidly clearing market leverage. While this is favorable for releasing risks in the short term, it also means that volatility may be amplified at any time. Especially in the current environment of insufficient liquidity, a stimulus could easily lead to a rapid spike or a sharp drop.

The market is currently still in a range-bound oscillation pattern, with neither side gaining a decisive advantage. Today's movement is more likely to first test resistance with a push up, then decide the subsequent direction based on the funding situation. Before the trend becomes clear, it is often more important to patiently wait for confirmation signals after significant movements than to guess the direction in advance.

Overall, the market has entered the eve of directional choice. Short-term oscillation will continue, but the range of volatility is gradually expanding, and the real turning point may be getting closer.
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This article was originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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