Written by:潮向 Research

Over the weekend, the U.S.-Iran agreement has begun to shake. On Saturday, Iran's IRGC announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and on Sunday, the negotiating delegation angrily left the venue after Trump issued threats. The U.S.-Iran discussions in Switzerland are currently still on pause. U.S. stock index futures fell across the board, and geopolitical premiums began to accumulate again; the direction of negotiations is the most direct pricing variable at today's opening.

Market Performance

Last week, chip stocks were the main focus, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hitting a record high on Thursday. The hawkish tone from the FOMC was overshadowed by the U.S.-Iran signing, and the S&P rose 0.9% for the week. SpaceX completed its market debut with a cumulative rise of 37%, but ended with two consecutive declines, and the $20 billion bond issuance plan was revealed, so the honeymoon period is over. Accenture plummeted 18% on Thursday, making it the worst-performing blue-chip stock last week.

Macro and Outlook

The latest status of U.S.-Iran negotiations: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and the Iranian delegation left the venue on Sunday in protest of Trump's threatening remarks. U.S. media reported that Iranian personnel are still in contact with the U.S., but negotiations have effectively paused. Iran's condition is for Israel to halt military actions in Lebanon, while Trump openly warned about potentially taking control of the Strait of Hormuz and threatened more severe retaliatory actions. Both sides are increasing pressure, and the progress of negotiations before today's opening is the most direct pricing variable for oil prices and energy stocks.

On Monday, Marvell and Flex will be included in the S&P 500. The alignment of weights for most passive funds was completed before last Friday's close, and today's opening will have adjustments in remaining allocations, so pay attention to the liquidity premium of these two stocks in the first few minutes.

On Tuesday, the MSCI annual market classification review will be announced. If South Korea enters the developed market watchlist, tens of billions of passive funds will drive the semiconductor ETF; SK Hynix's ADR application is expected to receive SEC approval as early as this week, and both events will benefit in the same direction, resulting in resonance in the memory sector.

Thursday, June 25, will be the most significant day of the week, as both May PCE and Micron's earnings report will be released on the same day. Core PCE is expected to rise year-on-year from 3.3% to 3.4%, and Deutsche Bank has predicted two rate hikes totaling 50 basis points this year, with the earliest move possibly in July. If PCE data is hot, the probability of a rate hike in September will shift to consensus, endorsing the hawkish tone of Waller; if it softens, the speed of repricing expectations for rate cuts will exceed anyone's expectations.

Micron's earnings report is the most direct litmus test for AI narratives this week. Wall Street currently expects its Q3 revenue to be about $34.5 billion, EPS to be around $19.72, and gross margin to be about 81%. The annual HBM capacity has been locked in by clients until the end of 2026 and extended into early 2027. The market's main focus this time is on the visibility of HBM supplies in 2027, the ramp-up progress of HBM4 production, and whether Micron can maintain its share in NVIDIA's Vera Rubin supply chain. Micron has confirmed its inclusion as an HBM4 certified supplier for Vera Rubin, marking the largest narrative upgrade of the last quarter. Any wording regarding capacity constraints or conservative guidance will be amplified by shorts, as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index just hit a historical high, with very low tolerance.

NVIDIA's shareholder meeting will be held in the early morning hours of Beijing time. The core focus will be on the capacity ramp-up of Blackwell and Vera; any statement below expectations will directly impact the logic of AI capital expenditures. OpenAI's GPT-5.6 is expected to debut this week, moving from model to executable agent. If its release overlaps with Micron's earnings report and NVIDIA's shareholder meeting, Thursday will be the most intense 24 hours of AI narratives this week.

On Friday, the Russell Reconstitution will take effect, and volatility in small-cap stocks will systematically increase.

Trendy Perspective

Last week's answer is temporary; this week is the real test of the pricing framework. Two lines are running simultaneously: the geopolitical line looks at whether U.S.-Iran negotiations can restart, while the AI line looks at Micron's guidance and NVIDIA's capacity. Chip stocks hit a historical high last week; whether this height can be maintained depends on the results of the two pieces of data being released on Thursday. Deutsche Bank has already surrendered to Waller, predicting a rate hike of 50 basis points within the year. If PCE once again turns out hot and Micron gives conservative guidance, the stocks that rose most sharply last week will fall the deepest this week. If both provide the answers the market wants, then the pricing framework for AI narratives will re-establish its direction, and this week's volatility will serve as an entry window.