TL;DR

After the price reassessment of Zhidu, the market derives a $10 trillion valuation for Anthropic, but the revenue base and scarcity premium of the two differ.

• The Binance Anthropic Pre-IPO perpetual contract estimates the equity based on 1 billion shares, with a current implied market cap of approximately $1.7 trillion, but this cannot be equated to the actual clearing price of common stock.
• Related assets: Anthropic, Zhidu, Amazon, Google, AI private equity asset trading platforms, RWA/tokenized stocks sector.
• The domestic large model Zhidu has been the absolute focus of the capital market in recent days, having just completed a milestone of 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars in the Hong Kong stock market after a continuous rise without correction.

Zhidu's commercialization path is entirely aligned with Anthropic, as stated by CEO Zhang Peng. A few months ago, Anthropic just completed a round of financing of $65 billion, with a post-money valuation of approximately $965 billion.

So a few months later, can we calculate how much Anthropic is worth through Zhidu's surge?

First, calculate using PS

According to SCMP, Zhidu’s 2025 revenue is expected to be 724.33 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 131.9%, with a total loss of 4.72 billion RMB and an adjusted net loss of 3.18 billion RMB. It is still in a stage of low revenue base and significant losses. The sharp reassessment of stock prices and market value in 2026 involves not only the current profit and loss statement but also the progress of domestic large model capabilities, the alternative imaginations brought by Claude Fable and Mythos’s restrictions on overseas model access, the scarcity of Hong Kong stock AI assets, and the amplification of public market liquidity on hot assets.

Based on Zhidu's projected revenue of about $100 million in 2025, its market cap once corresponded to several hundreds of times PS. This multiple is already much higher than traditional high-growth software companies, and exceeds the valuation framework that most mature tech stocks can sustain.

Now applying this multiple to Anthropic.

If calculated based on Anthropic's annual revenue growth rate of over $30 billion to $47 billion, the theoretical valuation corresponding to several hundreds of times revenue would enter the trillion-dollar range, far exceeding the current price given by private market financing.

But $10 trillion is clearly a distortion.

On-chain Pre-IPO has pricing, but also has equity discontinuities

On-chain Pre-IPO assets are provided by the platform in a token form for tradeable access. Currently, the most well-known trading venue for Anthropic's Pre-IPO assets is Binance.

When Binance Futures launched the ANTHROPICUSDT contract on June 2, it disclosed that the contract used 1 billion shares and clearly stated that this share count is for reference only and does not represent the real post-IPO equity or constitute Binance's endorsement of the implied valuation.

According to the latest market data on June 22, the latest price for ANTHROPIC is approximately 1718 USDT. The estimated share count used by this platform is 1 billion shares, roughly calculating the on-chain contract price corresponds to an implied total market cap for Anthropic of about $1.72 trillion. The issue is that liquidity is very poor, with only $1 million in trading volume over 24 hours.

Anthropic's anchor lies in revenue growth and cost curves

Apart from the $10 trillion calculated by PS and the $1.72 trillion from low liquidity, are there any other methods?

For example, identifying the two most critical variables for AI companies: can the revenue continue to grow rapidly, and can costs continue to decrease?

Traditional software companies often use revenue multiples for pricing because marginal costs are very low. The cost of selling software to the millionth customer does not increase linearly. But large model companies are different. With each invocation of the model, there are costs associated with computing power, electricity, chip depreciation, and cloud resources, which is the inference cost (the cost of computing power when using the model).

If inference costs do not decrease quickly enough, higher revenue might lead to higher cash burn. This is also why Anthropic's ARR (recent annualized revenue speed) and gross margin are more significant than simple revenue. ARR is not the audited revenue for the entire past year, but annualizes the revenue from the most recent month or quarter to observe the company's current commercialization speed.

Valuation can start from a simple formula: Anthropic's ARR multiplied by a revenue multiple, then discounted or given a premium based on gross margin and cloud costs.

Focusing on the IPO window, the core variable is how much ARR Anthropic can achieve before going public. International buyers have mainstream expectations for Anthropogenic + OpenAI's total ARR by the end of 2026 to be concentrated above $140 billion to $200 billion. If Anthropic maintains its current revenue share of about 59%, its corresponding ARR would be around $82 billion to $118 billion or more. Assuming a 10x ARR, that corresponds to valuations of $820 billion to $1.18 trillion or more; assuming a 15x ARR, that corresponds to $1.23 trillion to $1.77 trillion or more; assuming a 20x ARR, that corresponds to $1.64 trillion to $2.36 trillion or more.

This represents a relatively reliable valuation method for Anthropic.

The market is willing to give Anthropic a nearly trillion-dollar private valuation, essentially betting on three premises simultaneously: the demand from enterprises and developers for Claude continues to grow, scenarios like Agents and code assistants can generate high-quality revenue, and the rate of decline in inference costs is fast enough to bring gross margins closer to those of software companies.

None of the three anchors is the answer

So returning to the initial question, Zhidu, Pre-IPO, and ARR multiples, all three methods can calculate a number, but none can stand alone as an answer.

Zhidu indicates the emotional ceiling. It shows that the market is willing to pay a high premium for scarce AI assets, but directly applying it to Anthropic will yield a clearly distorted result of $10 trillion.

Binance provides the trading price. $1.72 trillion seems closer to reality, but it corresponds to the low liquidity of the Pre-IPO contract, not the actual clearing price of common stock.

ARR multiples are relatively more reliable, but they are only a framework. Whether Anthropic’s post-IPO valuation can hold will ultimately depend on whether several conditions can be met simultaneously: revenue continues to grow rapidly, enterprise and developer demand stabilizes into repeat purchases, scenarios like Agents and code assistants bring high-quality revenue, and inference costs and cloud costs decrease quickly enough.

If these conditions are met, a valuation close to or exceeding a trillion dollars could be supported. If any one of these falls short, the market will re-evaluate Anthropic rather than continue to believe in a single attractive valuation anchor.

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