On Monday, the market showed a clear reduction in momentum after a unilateral rise, and the high was followed by a decline, leaving a long upper shadow on the daily chart. As mentioned in yesterday's night analysis, the market has entered a 1-hour adjustment cycle, and currently, the adjustments at the 1-hour and 2-hour levels are nearing an end, with short-term opportunities expected to return for a recovery.

From the perspective of cycle structure, the current market is still in a clear stage of bullish and bearish divergence. The 12-hour cycle maintains a bullish structure, meaning the logic of large-scale recovery has not yet ended, and there is still an expectation of continued upward testing of resistance areas today. The 4-hour enters a neutral oscillation area, while the 6-hour and 8-hour maintain a bearish cycle, resulting in multiple cycles pulling in different directions, causing the market to fail to form a unified direction for a prolonged period.

Therefore, the most significant characteristic of the recent market is:

Rising lacks sustainability, while falling has not triggered a crash.

Every rise encounters selling pressure, and every pullback can obtain some support, as both bulls and bears are continuously competing for market pricing power.

From a funding perspective, the BTC funding rate has risen to a nearly three-week high, indicating a clear warming of bullish sentiment. However, at the same time, the demand for bearish protection in the options market remains strong, with put and call premiums exceeding twice, indicating that institutional funds are still highly cautious about the future market.

In the past 24 hours, approximately $326 million was liquidated across the network, with both bulls and bears being washed out, further indicating that there is no absolute advantage for either side in the current market.

Overall, the major direction still belongs to a weak recovery phase. After the short-term adjustments are basically in place, it is preferable to pay attention to long opportunities confirmed by low-level pullbacks; if it rebounds and hovers near critical resistance areas without gaining upward momentum, it is necessary to be cautious of another high-level decline.

The best strategy in the current market is not to chase rises and sell falls, but to wait for key positions to provide signals before participating in line with the trend.
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This article is originally published by [Huiying Community] and represents personal views only. Due to the certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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