The market has not seen much change; since hitting a new low of 59000, it reached as high as around 67000, and yesterday it surged again to repair up to 65597, currently returning to around 63899. The market fluctuations are not large, which coincides with our earlier estimation that the market would not experience significant fluctuations during the World Cup. Considering Wash's speech upon taking office, it aligns closely with the author's thinking; stability is the key tone and does not hint at any ideas of interest rate hikes or cuts, merely indicating that the dot plot will not remain unchanged. The current financial market is more about speculation on future trends, lacking actual evidence to support it. In contrast, interest rate hikes are approaching in Europe and Japan, but these regions have little impact on the cryptocurrency space, which can almost be ignored, their influence is seen as less significant than that of the gamblers gathered during the World Cup in Lao Cui's eyes. Previously, Lao Cui provided everyone with a thought that after waiting for Wash's speech, the cryptocurrency market would show a trend, and today Lao Cui will discuss the future trends with everyone.

The biggest issue hindering the development of a market has always been the problem of capital connectivity, and the cryptocurrency space is currently facing challenges that Lao Cui has mentioned countless times. The surge in tech stocks and the leading role of AI have driven the market value of many companies to skyrocket, alongside this year's World Cup unlocking hundreds of billions in liquidity; even gold prices are still high (compared to their pre-war levels), and military factors have once again boosted the growth of crude oil (which has now begun to cool down). In contrast, the cryptocurrency space has seen no substantial breakthroughs this year, and even news-driven stimuli are insufficient to support a consensus on value, leading to a siphoning of capital; capital growth will inevitably flow out of the cryptocurrency space towards other markets. Looking at the results, the capital outflow from the cryptocurrency space is undoubtedly a success for those in positions, allowing them to reap considerable profits; this is the symptom of the cryptocurrency space. To resolve this issue, we must look at when capital flow can return to the cryptocurrency space, which is what we hope for in terms of interest rate cuts, hoping the capital will take a glance back at the cryptocurrency space.

Understanding this viewpoint will clarify your trading approach; Lao Cui will not provide specific price points, as this involves many factors. Since we have determined that the short-term decision regarding funds is that they will not flow into the cryptocurrency space, the remaining steps can confirm that all breakthroughs are merely inducing bullish sentiments. Without support from capital, prices will not experience breakthrough increases. Many cryptocurrency enthusiasts believe that Lao Cui turned bearish around 62000, and as the market has momentarily surpassed the 67000 mark, they think Lao Cui's judgment is flawed. The bearish perspective is aimed at short-term or even mid-term thinking; everyone needs to accept that the establishment of a new low at 59000 holds more investment value in its depth of decline than the depth of recovery in increases. Do not fixate on the gains or losses of a single position; the World Cup will siphon off funds from speculative users, while tech stocks will at least withdraw liquidity over three months or even half a year. Everyone can patiently observe the trends; is the current state of technology in the cryptocurrency space similar to that during Trump's election victory period?

Lao Cui summarizes: Overall, the recent release of negative news has been extremely frequent, and the probability of an interest rate hike in September has sharply risen to over 50%. This data cannot be ignored; the key factor in determining whether to raise interest rates remains the influence of oil prices. If the crude oil channel issues with Iran can be resolved before September, there is a high probability of a rate cut; if this matter is postponed, the result will be the opposite. Therefore, in the short term, especially since the primary factor for rate cuts has not occurred, it is advisable to primarily hold short contracts and not to go long. I must emphasize the depth issue again; when shorting, do not fixate on new lows. In the current situation, profit from short positions can be taken. Set short stop-loss positions above ten thousand points; there shouldn't be significant issues, even at the sixty-thousand mark, there are chances for profit. Regarding the selection of spot prices, Lao Cui has explained enough; the sixty-thousand mark remains worthwhile to act upon. This year's new lows may become an unreachable presence for the next three years. The mid-term election issue can be temporarily set aside as there is still some distance to November; the only potential for a significant crash this year arises from interest rate hikes and issues in Trump's mid-term elections; aside from that, the market will return to normalcy. I also remind everyone, as technology approaches its peak, those who are profitable should grasp their exit opportunities.

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