1. The macro environment continues to be under pressure
The market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates have continually failed, with multiple Wall Street institutions raising their interest rate hike expectations for the year. US Treasury yields are continuously rising, putting pressure on global risk assets overall. Meanwhile, some institutions warn that US tech stocks may reach their peak in the third quarter at the earliest, or could see a significant correction. The cryptocurrency market is highly correlated with US tech stocks, and overall risk appetite continues to decline.

2. There is a clear divergence in industry funding

• The Ethereum spot ETF has seen cumulative net outflows of over $712 million for three consecutive weeks, with institutional buying continuing to be lacking; the Ethereum Foundation has announced layoffs and a 40% reduction in its annual budget, leading to weakened confidence in the ecological market.

• Since its listing, the Solana spot ETF has seen cumulative net inflows of about $1.45 billion, performing relatively strongly among mainstream coins and diverting some institutional funds from Ethereum.

• Bitcoin's market dominance remains above 56%, with a significant trend of funds concentrating on leading assets during the downturn.

3. The current cryptocurrency market is overall in a bearish dominant weak pattern, with expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates failing, and rising US Treasury yields continuing to suppress risk assets. BTC, ETH, and SOL show a high degree of correlation with the market, with an extremely low probability of independent movements. The market primarily adopts a trend-following approach, with weak sentiment towards counter-trend bottom fishing.
1. BTC (Bitcoin)
Market characterization: Daily moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MACD bearish momentum continues to be released, and rebound volume is insufficient, with the overall weak downward structure not reversed.

1. Key price levels
• Support below: short-term first support at $61,000-$61,500, mid-term core defense at $60,000/$59,080
• Resistance above: short-term first resistance at $64,000-$64,680, mid-term strong pressure at $66,370 (multiples moving averages resonance suppression)

2. Mainstream market trading views
• Trend-following bearish approach: The market generally leans towards laying out when the price rebounds to the $64,000-$64,500 range and stagnates, with stop-loss set above $65,000, targets successively at $63,500 and $62,500. If the price falls below $61,000, downside potential could extend to the $60,000 level.

• Short-term bullish approach: Only when the price retraces to the $61,000-$61,500 range and shows clear signs of stopping the decline will the market consider lightly positioning for a bounce after a significant drop, with stop-loss set below $60,500, targets at $62,500-$63,500, and no overnight holdings or long positions.
2. ETH (Ethereum)
Market characterization: Short-term moving averages have formed a dead cross, with the price running closely along the lower Bollinger band. Alongside continued ETF fund outflows and weakening ecological confidence, the bearish trend is clear, and the overall performance is weaker than BTC.

1. Key price levels
• Support below: short-term first support at $1,640-$1,650 (the intraday dividing line for bulls and bears), strong support at $1,600 (annual psychological level)
• Resistance above: short-term first resistance at $1,700-$1,710, mid-term strong pressure at $1,760-$1,793 (three moving averages selling pressure zone)

2. Mainstream market trading views
• Trend-following bearish approach: The mainstream market leans towards laying out when the price rebounds to the $1,700-$1,710 range and meets resistance, with stop-loss set above $1,800, targets successively at $1,650 and $1,600. If it falls below the $1,600 level, downside potential will further open up.
• Short-term bullish approach: Only when the price first retraces near $1,640-$1,650 and shows rapid signs of stopping the decline can a small position be taken for a short-term bounce, with stop-loss set below $1,590, targets at $1,700-$1,750, and exiting upon encountering resistance during the rise.
3. SOL (Solana) strategy reference

Market characterization: Although the spot ETF has seen continued net inflows, it struggles to establish an independent market due to the drag from the broader market. Its volatility is higher than that of mainstream coins, with stronger selling pressure during declines, closely linked to weak fluctuations of BTC.

1. Key price levels
• Support below: short-term first support at $67-$67.3 (recent low), mid-term strong support at $60
• Resistance above: short-term first resistance at $72-$73, mid-term strong pressure at $75-$76 (congested area of trapped positions)

2. Mainstream market trading views
• Trend-following bearish approach: The market generally leans towards following up when the price rebounds to meet resistance in the $72-$73 range, with stop-loss set above $77, targets successively at $68 and $67. If it effectively breaks below the recent low of $67, downside potential could extend to the $60 range.

• Short-term bullish approach: Only when the price first retraces near $67 and shows rapid signs of stopping the decline can a light position be taken for a short-term bounce, with stop-loss set below $66 and targets at $71-$72. It is advised not to bottom fish until the broader market shows clear stabilization.
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