1. Macroeconomic and capital market-driven decline
• Significant reduction in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations: In May, the US inflation rate reached 4.2%, alongside upward pressure on oil prices. The market now prices the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting rates this year at 79%, with the high interest rate environment continuously suppressing the valuation of yieldless crypto assets.

• Continued capital outflow from institutions: The US Bitcoin spot ETF set a record for the largest 30-day capital outflow in history, totaling $6.4 billion, marking six consecutive weeks of net outflow; over the past four weeks, cumulative outflows from Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $5.4 billion, while Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $880 million in the same period, indicating a clear cooling of institutional allocation demand, with funds shifting towards AI and other yield-generating sectors.

2. Market sentiment and volatility data
• Bitcoin once again lost the key $60,000 level, dipping as low as $59,100 during the day, the lowest since October 2024; over the past 24 hours, the scale of long liquidations in the entire network reached $253 million, accounting for 92% of total liquidations.

• The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index dropped to 8, indicating extreme fear, with market pessimism nearing levels seen during the 2022 bear market; Bitcoin's market share continues to rise, with funds clearly shifting from altcoins to mainstream coins for safety.

3. Derivatives risk warning
Tomorrow (June 26), there will be Bitcoin quarterly options expiring with a nominal value of $10.16 billion, one of the largest expirations of the year, with the maximum pain point at $72,000. Currently, about 80% of option positions are in out-of-the-money status, limiting direct selling pressure on the spot market, but market makers' hedging operations around the expiration will amplify short-term price volatility.
Second, analysis and operational strategies by coin type

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Core technical judgment
The bearish trend on the daily chart is complete; after the price broke below the $60,000 level, a volume-less rebound occurred, confirming a retest after breaking critical support, not a trend reversal. The four-hour chart is under pressure from multiple moving averages, and the rebound volume is continuously insufficient, with the bearish structure not yet broken.
• Support below: First support at $59,000 (previous low defense level), strong support in the $57,000–$58,000 range
• Resistance above: First resistance at $61,200–$61,500 (short-term dividing line), strong resistance at $63,000–$64,000

2. Ethereum (ETH)
Core technical judgment
The overall trend follows BTC, with extremely weak independent performance, lagging behind Bitcoin. The $1,600 level has turned from support to resistance, with the daily chart running along the lower Bollinger band, and bearish momentum still being released.
• Support below: First support at $1,500–$1,520 (previous low), strong support at $1,400
• Resistance above: First resistance at $1,630–$1,640, strong resistance at $1,700
• Spot allocation: Positive ecological factors cannot hedge against macro downward pressure, priority is lower than BTC, and bottom-fishing is not recommended at this time; waiting for BTC to stabilize before considering allocation.

3. Solana (SOL)
Core technical judgment
A double top bearish pattern has formed, effectively breaking below the $68 neckline, with a theoretical downward target of around $60; simultaneously, on-chain activity is decreasing, with DEX trading volume and fee income continuously declining, weakening the fundamental support, with greater downward elasticity than mainstream coins.
• Support below: First support at $65–$66, strong support at $60–$62.5 (key support on the weekly chart)
• Resistance above: First resistance at $70–$73, strong resistance at $75 (top-bottom conversion level)

3. Overall operational tips
1. Volatility will increase before and after the quarterly options expiration tomorrow, and contract trading must reduce leverage and strictly set stop-losses to avoid holding losses.
2. Currently in a systematic macro downtrend, the risks of altcoins are much higher than those of mainstream coins, with positions preferentially skewed towards BTC.

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