BTC falling below 59000 is just the beginning? The target of 56500 remains unchanged, while ETH may face a deep adjustment.
Hello everyone, I am Jin Zhechuan.
Today is June 26, 2026, 9:31 AM, let's take a look at the latest market trends for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
BTC's rebound is weak, the target of 56500 remains unchanged
Yesterday, the market experienced a rapid decline, with Bitcoin plunging to around 58000, before quickly rebounding to the 62000 level, completing nearly a 4000-point fluctuation in a short time, making the market quite exciting.
Reflecting on yesterday morning, I repeatedly emphasized that the 61500—62000 area is an important observation point and openly suggested entry opportunities near Bitcoin's 61700. At that time, the structure was complete, and the market delivered, yielding good returns.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is reported at 59200.
From the hourly chart, the overall downtrend has not changed. Although there has been a rebound, it largely belongs to the repair process during the decline. The hourly level has once again closed in the red, and both the daily and weekly K lines show weakness, with market trading volume continuously shrinking, and bears still dominate.
Therefore, the daily target I proposed yesterday—56500—remains unchanged.
Of course, a bearish trend does not mean there are no opportunities. In contract trading, high-quality rebounds can also occur during a decline. For instance, the rebound from 58000 to 62000 yesterday is a typical swing opportunity. The key is to follow the trend and grasp the rhythm rather than blindly guess the bottom.
ETH breaks through key support, bulls have yet to see a turnaround
In terms of Ethereum, the price has once again touched and fallen below the previously emphasized key level of 3150.
From the daily and weekly K line structure, bullish momentum continues to shrink, while the overall trend still goes south.
If it cannot regain stability in the key support area in the future, then from the perspective of the long cycle on the weekly K line, the market cannot rule out the possibility of searching for long-term support around 1143.
At this stage, Ethereum remains in a weak structure, and any rebound needs to first observe whether there is a substantial change in trading volume and trend.
The Fed's real weapon may not be the rate hike itself
Recently, I have written several analyses on macro policies.
I believe the more important task for the Fed currently is to stabilize the dollar and suppress inflation expectations by releasing hawkish expectations. Many times, it does not need to actually raise or lower interest rates; just through official speeches, meeting minutes, and managing market expectations is enough to achieve regulatory purposes.
Therefore, we still need to keep an eye on subsequent policies.
From the current situation, expectations for a rate hike in December this year have increased. From a political cycle perspective, Trump clearly prefers to see an environment of rate cuts. Thus, a true liquidity turning point may only gradually appear after 2027 or after some major meeting.
Volatility returning is the greatest opportunity for traders
For contract traders, we never need the market to only rise without falling.
What is truly important is volatility.
The current level of market volatility has gradually returned to the state of 2000-3000 points of daily fluctuation as seen in 2025. Such an environment is more favorable for trend trading and swing trading.
The direction can be right or wrong, but volatility will always provide opportunities for those who are prepared.
Finding rhythm within the trend, capturing profits within the volatility. The market does not reward emotions; it only rewards execution.
I am Jin Zhechuan, see you next time.
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