Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Azuma (@azuma_eth)

With the outbreak of the World Cup, the prediction market has welcomed a historic explosion of data.

Match outcomes, progression paths, championship allocation, golden boot rankings... Massive amounts of capital are passionately competing in the prediction market, pushing trading volumes and user participation to historic peaks. However, amidst the festivities, most ordinary users face an awkward reality — staring at a screen full of probability fluctuations, unsure how to operate to achieve continuous profits.

In search of certainty in profits, many users track the movements of "smart money" on social media or news platforms, but in reality, the method of "waiting for signals and then manually following" can easily fall into passivity. Because the probabilities in the prediction market fluctuate in real-time, the opportunity cost often vanishes in an instant, making it difficult for manual operations to keep pace.

To address this issue, some users have begun to turn their gaze toward ordinary copy trading tools available on the market, however, this hides a more concealed "smart money trap." Many tools only display so-called smart money addresses using a single standard of "total profit" or "recent win rate," and users, seeing these "experts" with dazzling earnings of millions of dollars, blindly follow, resulting in losses upon entry.

“Not all profitable addresses are suitable for copying.”

When discussing the reasons for this situation, we recently encountered a prediction market strategy platform PPP (Prediction Position Platform), which provided the above response.

PPP explained that some addresses may gain profits due to special information, extreme positions, single market movements, or advantages in capital scale, and ordinary users who only look at profit rankings can easily overlook factors like drawdowns, liquidity, position style, and actual followability; once they blindly copy, unexpected results often occur. In other words, "profit" itself does not equate to "copyable."

“An address truly suitable for ordinary users to copy must achieve stable profits under large samples over a long period, with win rates, maximum drawdowns, strategy stability, and position allocation... each indicator is indispensable, and only addresses that withstand the tests of these dimensions have profitable logic that is replicable.”

AI Modeling + Manual Review, Filtering Truly Reusable Strategies

According to PPP, the biggest problem facing current prediction market users is how to filter out the truly "replicable, verifiable, and sustainable" smart money addresses from a sea of trading addresses, and to track related address dynamics in a simpler way, thus participating in copying.

To this end, PPP is attempting to build a complete system — to filter and structure complex address data and trading signals, ultimately transforming them into strategies that ordinary users can understand and use.

PPP team member Lorne stated: “The market is not lacking in monitoring work or in copy trading tools, but there is a lack of a system that can structure, clean, and transform complex trading behaviors into a strategy mechanism that ordinary users can understand, dare to use, and find easy to operate.”

Lorne added that PPP employs a dual mechanism based on AI modeling and manual verification, and conducts comprehensive analysis of specific addresses based on multiple dimensions, including but not limited to:

• Profit performance and stability;
• Win rate structure;
• Maximum drawdown and risk exposure;
• Capital scale and position ratio;
• Activity level and trading frequency;
• Holding periods...

After comprehensive modeling of these indicators through AI, the system first eliminates "random profits" and "anomalous trading samples," and then, combined with multiple rounds of manual review, selects a batch of trading addresses that are statistically more stable and have ongoing research value.

PPP emphasizes that its AI algorithm model itself is not made public, but the platform will provide users access to the model’s parsing capabilities through an "AI address analysis tool." Users can post the addresses they are tracking on PPP, compare them with the smart money address database, and identify their profitability, information advantages, drawdown resistance, and win rate levels, thus judging whether the address has stable strength.

Strategy Layering: Meeting Diverse Needs

After completing the basic filtering, PPP will further layer these replicable smart money addresses and build two core product systems aimed at different user needs.

The first is the "Strategy Square." According to Lorne, the Strategy Square aggregates stable trading strategies that have been validated over a longer period. Addresses entering this system usually need to meet stricter screening criteria, specifically including:

• At least six months of historical trading verification;
• AI multidimensional scoring;
• Manual verification to confirm strategy consistency;
• Focus on risk-return ratio and drawdown control;
• Emphasis on strategy replicability and long-term stability;

In summary, the Strategy Square can be understood as a filtered long-term strategy pool, aimed at providing more sustainable options for users wishing for stable copy trading. PPP also conducts regular reviews of strategies in this section to ensure their ongoing effectiveness.

The second is the "Trading Rankings." Lorne explains that, unlike the Strategy Square, the Trading Rankings focus more on capturing short-term opportunities. This ranking is generated by PPP through AI multidimensional modeling and manual verification, primarily screening traders who have performed outstandingly in the last 30 days, with key focus dimensions including:

• Speed of profit growth;
• Trend of win rate changes;
• Activity level and market participation;
• Characteristics of short-term capital behavior;

In this system, high profits are often accompanied by higher volatility, and PPP has also made it clear: “This ranking is more suitable for users seeking short-term opportunities rather than long-term stable copy trading strategies.”

To meet users' diverse operational needs,PPP will provide simple, easily understandable abstractions and descriptions of the specific styles of strategies and addresses in the Strategy Square and Trading Rankings (e.g., “high implied win rate strategy, significant volatility”), to help users better understand differences between strategies and make selections.

In addition to the above two standardized ranking systems, PPP also offers a one-click trading function and address copying function — the former helps users copy trades immediately upon receiving trading signals; the latter allows users to input any address they are concerned about for copying.

Striking Luck During the Trial: Daily Returns Exceeding 60%

Lorne revealed that PPP has recently officially launched its Telegram Bot product, currently serving as the primary interaction entry point for users, with the website and other products actively being prepared.

Under Lorne’s guidance, we also attempted the complete user process as ordinary users.

Upon first entry, users need to log in and create a wallet through the Telegram Mini App. PPP's wallet system is non-custodial, meaning users will always have control of the wallet (private keys can be exported following the process, please keep them safe) — this means any potential future earnings from this wallet, such as airdrops from Polymarket, will all belong to the users.

The next step is the recharge and subscription phase. PPP operates on a subscription service model, requiring users to subscribe in advance to unlock full functionalities. The monthly subscription fee is 59 USDC, but a limited-time discount is currently being offered at a subscription fee of 1.99 USDC, allowing the first batch of users to experience it at a low price.

After completing the subscription, users can see the fully unlocked services on PPP’s homepage, including the previously mentioned Strategy Square, Trading Rankings, address copying, AI address analysis, etc., along with "Wallet and Assets" to check balance, "Existing Copies" for querying current holdings, and "Signal Detection" to follow the latest market trends... PPP has also launched a dedicated section for the World Cup, allowing users to view the latest match status in real-time, andPPP will continue to update relevant smart money movements and key trading signals to quickly identify where capital is being bet.

As for the specific copying operations, once users select a strategy, they can view the core indicators across various dimensions of that strategy; after confirming it meets their needs, they can select the copying amount or set custom settings to initiate copying. Here, it's worth mentioning the "Copy Settings" function, where users can actively adjust parameters such as trigger amount, copying amount, slippage, take profit, and maximum holding limits for different strategies to control the execution boundaries of copying.

Personally, I invested $100 to test it for a day, following two strategies and addresses from the Strategy Square and Trading Rankings; the next day, I was shocked when I checked — the account net value at one point reached 164 USDC, with a daily return exceeding 60%.

However, in subsequent testing, the account experienced some drawdowns; summarizing the problem mainly stemmed from not setting different copying amounts for different risk-oriented strategies, leading to excessive losses from low-probability events.

Lorne admitted: “Although PPP has conducted rigorous screening and verification of the historical performance of selected strategies and acknowledged the capability of the address under multidimensional modeling, the platform also cannot guarantee future profitability for the strategy accounts. Therefore, we advise users to try within acceptable risk limits and to avoid getting overly excited.”

Seeking Certainty in an Uncertain Market

After using it for a few days and engaging in depth conversations with Lorne, our most intuitive feeling is that PPP should not be simply understood as a "copying tool"; it is more like an attempt to construct a structured "compilation" path from trading signals to actionable strategies.

Smart money indeed exists, but it is dispersed among countless addresses, strategies, and short-term fluctuations; profit records are also real, but the underlying risk structures, capital behaviors, and strategy stability are often obscured by simple profit numbers. This also explains why "following smart money" often proves unstable in practice — users see the results, but the market operates through the process; users wish to replicate profits, but often overlook the path.

What PPP attempts to solve is precisely this gap. By deeply combining AI’s complex algorithms and manual verification, it reduces noise and structures the originally chaotic and random on-chain trading signals, extracting truly "replicable" smart money strategies and delivering them to users in the form of a very low-threshold TG Bot. This acts as an effective defense against the "smart money trap" and helps eliminate information asymmetry in the prediction market.

Of course, as Lorne emphasized, no historical backtesting or strategy screening can make a 100% promise of future profits. High profits in the prediction market inevitably come with high volatility and high risks, PPP may provide a set of deeply processed "weapons" that can help users improve their win rates, avoid obvious pitfalls, but it still ultimately depends on the user's own ability to manage capital and their risk preference whether they can succeed in the long-term competition.

As the prediction market continues to evolve, whether PPP can test its methodology in future market competitions remains to be seen. But at least for now, it provides a more certain entry point for those ordinary users who want to share in the World Cup wave but do not know where to start.

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