1. Macroeconomic Dominating Bearish: Fed Hawkish Expectations Heat Up

The new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, made strong hawkish statements, causing the market to reprice rate hike expectations, leading to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a strengthening dollar index, which placed widespread pressure on risk assets. The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan released simultaneous tightening signals, directly suppressing cryptocurrency valuations due to tightening global liquidity expectations.

2. Short-term Catalyst: Billion-dollar Options Expire Today

At 16:00 Singapore time today, Bitcoin options with a nominal value of about $10 billion on the Deribit platform are set to expire, accounting for approximately 37% of the total open interest. Due to the continuous decline in coin prices, the vast majority of call options are currently out of the money, and institutional hedging behavior has amplified short-term volatility, with end-of-quarter liquidity shortages further exacerbating selling pressure.

3. Industry and Regulatory Dynamics

• U.S. Regulation: The SEC and CFTC jointly clarified that 16 mainstream crypto assets including BTC, ETH, and SOL are recognized as digital commodities, establishing a framework for non-security determination, which is a long-term positive for the compliance process.

• On-chain Incident: Coinbase's Ethereum layer two network, Base, experienced a block halt yesterday, interrupting for over an hour, exposing the reliability risks of centralized orderers.

• U.K. Regulation: The Bank of England released a regulatory framework for systemically important stablecoins, allowing compliant stablecoin operations beginning in 2027, with an initial issuance cap of £40 billion per coin type.

4. Funds and Sentiment Data

• In the past 24 hours, a total liquidation of $1.458 billion occurred across the network, affecting over 200,000 people, with long positions liquidating $1.161 billion and short positions liquidating $296 million.

• Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of nearly $3 billion this month, with institutional buying significantly weakened.

• Market panic sentiment is spreading, with funds flowing from mainstream currencies to high-volatility small-cap altcoins, intensifying market fragmentation.

II. Overall Market Overview
All three major cryptocurrencies are in a downward channel on the daily level, with the moving average system in a bearish arrangement, and the technical landscape is clearly weak. The current rebound is only a technical correction from oversold conditions, and no trend reversal signals have appeared.

III. Trading Strategies by Cryptocurrency
Risk Warning: The following is a technical analysis reference and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, so please operate with small positions and set strict stop losses.
BTC (Bitcoin)

Key Levels
• Upper Resistance: 60,500 / 61,200 / 62,200 (Bull-Bear Watershed)
• Lower Support: 59,000 / 57,500 / 56,000

Operational Strategy
• Main Thought: Short on rebounds, do not bottom fish before a trend reversal
• If the price rebounds to the 60,000–60,500 range, consider gradually entering short positions, setting stop loss above 61,300
• Downward targets are 59,000 and 57,500; if 59,000 is effectively broken, bearish space will further open up
• Volatility will be intense before options settlement, avoid chasing highs or lows, and wait for the price to reach key positions before intervening.

ETH (Ethereum)
Key Levels
• Upper Resistance: 1,590–1,620 / 1,650 (Bull-Bear Divide)
• Lower Support: 1,530 / 1,500 / 1,450

Operational Strategy
• Weaker move than BTC, leading declines in mainstream coins, primarily shorting, with minor long positions
• If the price rebounds to the 1,590–1,620 range and comes under pressure, consider shorting with a stop loss above 1,655
• Downward targets are 1,530 and 1,500; if 1,500 is lost, mid-term downward space will open
• Only consider light positions for a rebound if a clear stabilization signal appears around 1,530, with quick entries and exits.

SOL (Solana)
Key Levels
• Upper Resistance: 70 / 80 / 90
• Lower Support: 65 / 60 / 55

Operational Strategy
• Has broken key support at $70, short-term trend is weakening, mainly observe or short in line with the trend
• If support near $65 is effective and buying volume appears, consider light positions for a rebound, targeting around $70
• If $65 is effectively broken, the next support looks towards the $60 mark, at which point consider shorting
• The fundamentals still have long-term narratives such as payment settlement and network upgrades, but are clearly dragged down by the broader market in the short term, left-side bottom fishing is not recommended.
IV. Points of Attention Moving Forward
1. After options settlement at 16:00 today, observe whether the market sees a short covering rebound
2. After clearing funds at the end of the quarter in early July, can the market form a new directional consensus
3. Future remarks from Federal Reserve officials and inflation data to confirm whether rate hike expectations are further strengthened
4. On-chain data: net inflow/outflow from exchanges, whale address movements to judge whether selling pressure is nearing its end.
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