The information flow is too fast, and in-depth analysis articles are easily overwhelmed by hot topics. The "Weekly Editor's Picks" column sifts through these judgment-worthy contents from a vast amount of information, helping you filter out noise, retain insights, and provide inspiration.
Macro Situation
Yen Approaches 40-Year Low: The Bank of Japan Has Raised to 1%, Why Can't It Stop?
This time, both interest rate hikes and interventions have failed simultaneously.
There is already a consensus within the Bank of Japan - 1% is still not enough. But the market does not believe it dares to continue raising." Not changing domestic monetary policy while intervening in the exchange rate is like stepping on the brake while flooring the gas pedal - the best result is that passengers bump slightly, and the worst result is burning out the brake pads." - which is the current situation.
The Bank of Japan is in a dilemma: not raising interest rates leads to continued depreciation of the yen, worsening imported inflation; raising interest rates causes soaring interest expenditures on government debt, making fiscal policy unsustainable.
Three variables that will determine the future direction: whether the Federal Reserve will really raise interest rates again, the actual progress of US-Iran negotiations, and the attitude of the Bank of Japan's July meeting.
Investment and Entrepreneurship
Rented Faith: How Much of the Bitcoin ETF Fund Flow Is Real Money?
On a week-to-week basis, ETF fund flows are mainly driven by a hidden arbitrage trading strategy, rather than faith. The fluctuations of Bitcoin that week could hardly explain the fund flow. ETF fund flows overestimate the "volatility" of faith, rather than its "level." This trade is exiting, and it has lasted for two years.
SPCX Pre-market Drops Below $150 Listing Price, But Don't Rush to Buy
$20 billion in bond financing is merely a trigger for the decline, and SpaceX's share price pressure is also affected by the global correction of AI concept stocks. Coupled with the exhaustion of retail buying, the negative impact of unlocked equity is realized in advance.
Why Is It No Problem for Nvidia to Issue Bonds, but SpaceX's Bonds Plummet?
The market is beginning to reassess SpaceX's future capital expenditure pressure. Meanwhile, Nvidia's bond issuance received strong demand at the same time, providing a contrary reference point: the AI narrative has entered revenue and profit verification, while SpaceX's space narrative still requires more phased proof.
Web3 & AI
Super Invincible Spiral Explosion, Micron's Financial Report Reignites Semiconductor Long Bull
Compared to the repeatedly discussed HBM over the past year, one point worth noting in this financial report is that the impact of AI has already begun to spread throughout the entire storage industry chain. From a business structure perspective, almost all of Micron's core businesses are growing synchronously.
Micron has currently signed 16 long-term strategic customer agreements (SCA), covering data centers, consumer electronics, and automotive clients. Most of these agreements have a duration of up to 5 years, with some automotive client agreements lasting 3 years, extending coverage to the end of 2030. These agreements already cover about 20% of DRAM shipments and about one-third of NAND shipments.
For the past few decades, the operational logic of the industry has always been "expand production first, then wait for demand to digest;" but now, Micron is gradually shifting to another model - locking in orders first, then expanding production capacity.
The current expansion behavior is more like executing already locked orders, rather than traditional expansion based on demand forecasts.
Institutions Earn 100 Times, Is Zhipu's Stock Price Peaked?
Institutions and employees are the big winners in this round of wealth creation. The density of wealth creation ranks among the top in the history of Chinese tech companies going public.
Zhipu's most solid income is from localized deployments. As long as there is a continuous AI budget in governments and enterprises, Zhipu's income ceiling will not be too low. The shareholder structure is also endorsing this business. What ignited the second wave of sentiment is the rediscovery of GLM-5.2 in the English tech circle. Dissemination is very important for Zhipu. Chinese investors see Zhipu as having the Tsinghua system, state-owned assets, governmental and enterprise deployments, and scarce AI targets in Hong Kong stocks; the English tech circle sees GLM-5.2 and asks another question: can it replace some of Claude and GPT? Can it be deployed locally? Is it open source? Is the cost low enough?
On July 8, the most certain batch to be unlocked is about 25.68 million shares of cornerstone investors. This is not a trillion-level impact, but it is enough to change the supply and demand of chips.
Zhipu now needs to prove two things. First, can the developer voice brought by GLM-5.2 turn into real income? Second, after July 8, can the market absorb the newly available chips so that the stock price can switch from "low circulation drive" to "fundamentals drive"? If these two things are achieved, Zhipu's high valuation still has room to continue.
The Ending of AI Is Light: A Map of the 10x Stock Industry Chain That Most People Overlook
As the industry upgrades from 800G to 1.6T, and even further to 3.2T, the first to reap excess returns are often not the hottest star companies in the forefront, but suppliers like Corning, Amphenol, and Ciena that all giants cannot bypass, as well as upstream materials and testing sectors.
Prediction Market
From Signal Monitoring to Strategy Following, How Does PPP Lower Polymarket's Trading Threshold?
No Matter Whether You Understand Football, Buying Draws Is the Best Strategy for This World Cup?
As of June 22, in 40 group matches of the World Cup, there were 13 draws. If $1000 were placed on each draw, the total investment would be $40,000, and the calculated total payout would be about $81,914, resulting in a net profit of about $41,914 after deducting the total investment, yielding a return of nearly 105%. Only looking at trading profits, the most profitable script in group matches is not necessarily a big win by a strong team, but those that repeatedly appear as 1-1, 0-0, and 2-2.
Coding's Betting Panel Made Money, But Polymarket Is Really Not a Good Place for "Arbitrage"
Previously, on-chain arbitrage had mostly clear rules, and price discrepancies could be locked in, but Polymarket is different; it really tests your logical understanding of different betting directional shifts (which is difficult to express accurately in words). For example, regarding the political and economic dynamics related to East Asia, Chinese users may indeed have certain informational advantages, which is worth exploring, but this does not mean you will definitely win.
Polymarket ultimately does not settle according to "your understanding of reality," but according to market rules and designated data sources (there are frequent issues with UMA manipulation as well).
Moreover, the fact that you think something is set in stone in the Chinese context does not mean the definitions in English rules are the same, especially since each betting rule setting often has some hidden traps.
Therefore, based on my actual experience, PM doesn't offer that many arbitrage opportunities; it mainly relies on information differences and position dispersion, and even high-confidence bets can encounter black swans. For Polymarket, do not treat it as a stable income tool, don't equate a high win rate with a good trade, don't disregard tail risks, and don’t engage in pseudo-diversification. Polymarket is actually a very good training ground for judgment.
Also recommended: 《Landing at No. 3 on the Race Track, Rothera Is Disrupting the Prediction Market Pattern》《Insurance Industry Welcomes the Biggest Competitor, Is the Prediction Market the "Barbarian at the Gate"?》《WSJ: Fake Websites, Fake Trades, Real Promotion, Polymarket's Traffic Scam》.
CeFi & DeFi
Wall Street's New Move, US Stock ETF Dividends Automatically Reinvested in Bitcoin
Franklin Templeton has submitted a proposal to the SEC to launch two new Bitcoin DRIP ETFs, which feature automatically reinvesting stock dividends into Bitcoin.
In product design, Bitcoin has become a long-term gain factor in the US stock bubble. A 5% allocation to Bitcoin essentially adds a layer of insurance to the portfolio; if the AI bubble bursts and global capital flows back to safe-haven assets, Bitcoin may also see a rise.
Also recommended: 《If STRC Doesn't Peg, BTC Won't Have a Bull Market》.
Ethereum and Scaling
Stripe wants everyone to use Tempo, JPMorgan wants to promote its own chain, Circle wants to promote Arc — the giants will never build on each other’s turf. This is precisely the opportunity for Ethereum: when everyone refuses to yield to any company's infrastructure, the only choice left is a neutral layer that no one controls.
Also recommended: 《Epic Restructuring at EF: 20% Layoffs, Budget Cut in Half, Is Ethereum Going Lite?》《Is the Ethereum Foundation Splitting?! An Article to Understand Ethlabs' "Bright Future"》.
This Week's Hot Topics Review
Policies and Macro Markets
Korea and Japan Stock Markets "Black Tuesday": Korean stocks circuit broke, Nikkei plunged, AI boom welcomes a phase adjustment;
SK Hynix plans to raise over $29 billion by going public on NASDAQ;
SpaceX(SPCX.O) will join the NASDAQ-100 index on July 7, 2026;
Opinions and Voices
"White-haired stock god" Serenity reviewed numerous Asian tech stocks and NAV discount opportunities, focusing on Wistron and other targets; Missing the AI Supercycle could come at a huge cost, photonics, storage, and Neoclouds are worth paying attention to;
Bernstein: raised Micron Technology (MU.O) target price from $510 to $1300;
Analysis: Apple's price hike rings the alarm for AI cost, the market reassesses AI stock logic;
Analysis: Rumors of OpenAI IPO Delay impacted market sentiment, US stock futures fell, tech stocks and semiconductor sectors led the decline;
Adam Back: Strategy will not go to zero, being bearish on STRC has no basis;
Analysis: ETH has been severely oversold, the $1070-1370 range may be a strong buying point;
Institutions, Large Companies, and Leading Projects
CBOE launched CBOE Predicts prediction platform;
Ethereum Foundation: restructured and laid off about 20%;
ICE Intercontinental Exchange and OKX established a joint venture;
Data
Bitcoin dropped below $60,000 again;
Galaxy Research: Bitcoin miners have entered the surrender stage, mining difficulty down over 20% from peak;
a16z crypto: World Cup and multiple events resonance boosted weekly trading volume of prediction markets to a historical high;
Hong Kong SFC Annual Report: Last year's IPO fundraising soared 2.7 times, average daily trading volume of Hong Kong Stock Connect increased by 84%;
Security
AP: Anthropic's Mythos model discovered vulnerabilities in US government secret systems;
Famous MEV Bot address Jaredfromsubway.eth encountered "anti-MEV honey pot attacks" (interpretation)...
Attached is the "Weekly Editor's Picks" series link. See you next time~
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