There are not many trading days left this month, and my long-term friends who have been following me closely understand that the overall trading strategy during this period has been mainly bearish in line with the trend. Occasionally, there are short-term rebound opportunities in the market, even if trading with a small position to gamble on a long position, all have adhered to quick in-and-out trades, absolutely not holding long-term positions, without any luck in holding losses.

There are no ambiguous swing judgments, nor blind chasing after fantasies of reversals; all trading strategies are implemented in real trading. This complete profit and loss calendar for June is the most intuitive and real verification of the trading rhythm during this period.

Looking back at the current market, Bitcoin has tested the key support level of 58000 three times without being broken by bears, and the daily line has produced three candles with long lower shadows. If the daily line breaks below 58000 with increased volume, it will trigger 1.6 billion dollars in long liquidations; naturally, bulls will defend with full effort, and the pressure from bears will noticeably weaken, making a short-term rebound almost expectable. The current price is around 60060, with insufficient liquidity over the weekend, making it highly probable that the market will experience narrow fluctuations and gather momentum, with a real rebound only expected to start next week.

From the market perspective, the four-hour chart has formed a balanceddoji, with trading volume shrinking by nearly 94%. Both bulls and bears are observing, and no one is actively breaking the balance. Although the daily line is stabilized by the 58000 support, this rebound has only lifted about 2000 points, not even touching the 0.382 Fibonacci resistance level. If the support strength is sufficient, the rebound should at least reach 61500-62000, but the current inability to rally indicates that there is only passive support below, lacking proactive inflow of bull funds.

According to Polymarket prediction market data, 60000 is currently the dividing line between bulls and bears. The probability of the market stabilizing above 54000 is close to 99%, the probability of holding 58000 is 86.8%, but the probability of stabilizing above 60000 is only 48.4%, with a probability of breaking through 62000 below 11%, indicating that the market does not favor bulls in continuously pushing higher, while the possibility of a significant drop in the short term is relatively low.

The strong resilience of the 58000 support is the result of multiple structural overlays; this is the support level transformed from a previous downtrend trend line and overlaps with the 58000-60000 accumulation area, which has had funds supporting it during three tests. However, the support is only considered effective if it holds; once the daily line's body breaks below 58000 on increased volume, this range is simply a continuation of the downtrend, and the market will directly aim for 52000-54000.

Considering the settlement window factor, the weekend market will likely continue to fluctuate around 60000. The current rebound belongs to passive defense from the bulls, lacking incremental funds to boost it; thus, even the upward space is very limited. Next week's rebound mainstream range is expected to be 60500-61000, with a maximum possible rise to 61200-61500, and it is challenging to reach 62200, as the trading volume is insufficient to support a significant increase.

Here’s a summary of the current practical trading strategy: if the four-hour chart closes with a strong volume entity candle above 60500, a small position can be taken to go long, targeting 61500-62000, with a stop loss at 59000; if the price rebounds to 61500-62000 and forms a long upper shadow or bearish candle, it indicates the end of the rebound, so short positions should be taken, looking for a drop to 59000-60000, with a stop loss at 62500; once the four-hour entity candle breaks below 58000 on increased volume, short positions should be pursued, with a mid-term target of 54000-55000.

Weekend operations must be conservative, controlling positions at 5%-8%, and always include stop losses; avoid holding losses. At the 60000 level, the market is balanced at fifty-fifty for both bulls and bears, with no clear signal for a one-way direction, making it unnecessary to go heavy in gambling on direction. When the market is chaotic and unclear, keeping hands off and watching more is the prudent way; wait for clear signals before entering the market to significantly reduce unnecessary losses.

Public Account: Big Bull Talks Market

Disclaimer: This is only a personal market review and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries extremely high risks; please manage your positions reasonably.

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