Hello everyone, the weekend market saw little volatility, a rare moment of peace, which instead inspired me to calm down and review and analyze. Today, I will write an article about some of my insights and predictions on the current market. Some views may be quite direct, but they are my honest thoughts.

1. Why do I firmly believe that: there will be a "super golden pit" in the second half of 2026?

Let me start with the conclusion: in the second half of this year, Bitcoin is very likely to crash down to a historically significant "super bottom." This price is unlikely to be seen again for many years. If you have been following my articles since the end of October 2025, you should know that my judgment about the rhythm of this cycle has hardly deviated. (What specific price point will be reached? Stay tuned to my upcoming articles for gradual revelations.)

As far back as last October, when Bitcoin surged to $126,200, I clearly pointed out in my article: This is the top area of this cycle! At that time, many laughed at me, claiming I missed the boat, saying Bitcoin would surge to $150,000, $180,000—it's a super cycle. Now looking back, was $126,200 not the top? The market has already provided an answer.

So, where exactly is this bottom? When will it come?

My judgment range is: June to November 2026. How did I derive this prediction? Read on.

2. Bitcoin halving cycle rules: history will not simply repeat, but it is always astonishingly similar.

Let me state a heartbreaking truth: Among those who constantly draw charts, channels, and waves, nine out of ten may not even be as technically skilled as you. Hence, my articles seldom discuss technical indicators; they generally focus on macroeconomics. However, the traffic is troubling. In fact, candlestick patterns are results of prices, not causes. The truly determining factors for Bitcoin's major directional trend are three hardcore factors: macroeconomic cycle + global liquidity environment + intrinsic rules of halving.

Let's follow Jiang Feng's line of thought to review Bitcoin's historical performance after halving; data does not lie:

First halving (November 2012): top appeared in November 2013 (12 months apart), bottom appeared in January 2015 (25 months apart).

Second halving (July 2016): top appeared in December 2017 (17 months apart), bottom appeared in December 2018 (29 months apart).

Third halving (May 2020): top appeared in November 2021 (18 months apart), bottom appeared in November 2022 (30 months apart).

Fourth halving (April 2024): top appeared in October 2025 (18 months apart) ✅ verified

Did anyone notice a very stable rule?

Time for top appearance after halving: 12-18 months; time for bottom appearance after halving: 25-30 months.

Using this rule in reverse, with the April 2024 halving, counting forward 25-30 months gives us the time window: June to November 2026. However, nearly half a year is still too broad. We need to use macroeconomics as a "ruler" to further refine this window, so let’s look further 👀

3. Macro economy: The largest "bearish hammer" is on the way in the second half, but when bearish sentiments are exhausted, it will signal the largest bullish opportunity.

The next part is very important, and it is also something many retail investors overlook easily.

If you think Bitcoin's fluctuations are entirely dependent on market manipulators, you will never escape the fate of being harvested. The real big money acts according to the Federal Reserve's signals. What is the biggest uncertainty in the market right now?--The shadow of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes is gathering again.

According to the latest prediction data from CME (as of the end of June 2026):

On September 16, 2026, the Federal Reserve's meeting has a 46.8% chance of a 25 basis point hike, a 12.6% chance of a 50 basis point hike, and an almost 60% probability of an interest rate increase!

It’s worth noting that just two months ago, the market expected 2-3 rate cuts this year. Now, it has started pricing in rate hikes. This 180-degree turn in expectations is the fundamental reason for the persistent pressure on U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market recently.

Why has the expectation of rate hikes suddenly heated up?

Because U.S. core inflation has exceeded expectations for three consecutive months, and energy prices and service costs are surging uncontrollably. Federal Reserve officials have lately become increasingly hawkish, with some even discussing openly that "even if the economy slows down, inflation must be crushed."

This means that in the second half of 2026, global risk assets will face a "stress test":

1. Liquidity contraction: Rate hikes mean that easy money in the market will become increasingly scarce, and leveraged funds will withdraw, either actively or passively.

2. Decreased risk appetite: Institutional funds will prioritize selling volatile assets (like Bitcoin) in favor of safer assets like U.S. Treasury bonds.

3. Chain liquidation risk: If Bitcoin's price continues to decline under the pressure of rising interest rate expectations, mining operations, long leverage, and DeFi lending protocols will face liquidation pressures, forming a death spiral of "decline → liquidation → further decline."

   

Therefore, my judgment is: in the second half of 2026, especially from July to September, will be the most challenging and darkest moment for Bitcoin. Market sentiment may be extremely fearful, and at that time, those who deceive will likely be proclaiming "Bitcoin will go to zero," "the bull market is over."

At that time, it may truly be the "diamond bottom."

4. However! When bearish sentiments are exhausted, it is the time for the bull market to restart.

Note, this is the most important logical turning point in my entire article, please make sure to read it three times.

Retail investors see interest rate hikes, see declines, and perceive panic and despair. But seasoned veterans who truly understand macro cycles see a glimmer of dawn after the "bearing sentiment exhaustion."

1. The end of interest rate hikes is the starting point of the bull market. History has repeatedly proven that at the end of each rate hike cycle, the market fully digests the impact of the last rate hike, sentiments are cleared in despair, and when the market sentiment reaches its "absolute zero," it often marks the beginning of a new bull market. When everyone confirms, "this is the last rate hike," the smartest money will enter the market early to seize the opportunity.

2. The narrative of the halving in the cryptocurrency space continues. In April 2028, Bitcoin will undergo its fifth halving. Historical rules tell us that in the 12-18 months before each halving, the market will preemptively kick off a "halving expectation" trend after lying low at the bottom. Bottoming out in the second half of 2026, oscillating and correcting in 2027, and soaring again before the halving in 2028—this timeline is nearly perfect.

3. Global liquidity will eventually shift. The Federal Reserve cannot raise rates indefinitely, and the U.S. federal government's massive debt interest costs are becoming unbearable. By the end of 2026 or early 2027, the U.S. economy may begin to show signs of fatigue under continued high pressure, at which point market expectations for "stopping interest rate hikes" or even "restarting rate cuts" will ignite once more. Once expectations reverse, global liquidity will flood back into risk assets like a torrent, and Bitcoin will be the first asset to surge. If you miss the opportunity to invest by the end of this year, you will miss the bonus period again.

As I write this article, I want to say a few heartfelt words to everyone.

Why do I say "the second half of 2026 may be the only chance for ordinary people to change their destiny"?

Because in the financial market, ordinary people aim to make small leaps across classes not by chasing gains and cutting losses on a daily basis, but by having the courage to remain calm when others panic and daring to take action when others despair during critical moments of the macro cycle.

In the second half of this year, when everyone derogates the market and cuts losses to exit, if you can withstand the pressure and gradually buy those battered assets, then forget the account, and patiently hold until around the 2028 halving, you will almost certainly outperform 90% of people.

But I must also remind everyone:

Do not try to catch the absolute bottom; even the gods can't do it. Use a dollar-cost averaging approach, divide your funds into 6-12 portions, and gradually enter the market between July and November. Do not gamble all your wealth; only use idle money that you will not need in the next two or three years.

In the second half of 2026, my core analytical path is as follows:

Expectations of macro interest rate hikes rising → market facing pressure and declining → extreme panic in sentiment → formation of a super bottom → bearish sentiments exhausted → expectations of macro liquidity turning around → quiet initiation of the bull market into the halving in 2027-2028, with the bull market peaking in 2029.

This path is my judgment, and it is merely my judgment. The market is always full of uncertainty, and no one can predict with 100% accuracy. However, this logic is at least cross-verified from historical patterns, macroeconomics, and market cycles, and I am willing to take responsibility for it with my understanding.

If you recognize this logic, then in the second half of this year, please control your impulses, maintain your patience, prepare your resources, and wait for the most fearful, darkest, but also the most promising moment.

Remember: Bull markets are born in despair, grow in hesitation, and end in frenzy. In the second half of 2026, we are approaching the end of "despair," which is also the starting point for new beginnings. May we all hold our positions in the darkness before dawn.

Let’s encourage each other; let’s meet at the top of the mountain.

This representsonly Jiang Feng's personal views and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is risky; decisions must be made cautiously.

If my article has inspired you, feel free to like, share, and let more friends who are still confused see it. Your support is my motivation to continue providing in-depth content!

Written by: Jiang Feng Capital

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