Several cryptocurrency media outlets have recently cited the viewpoints of on-chain analysts, pointing out that Bitcoin has entered a typical "surrender phase": on one hand, some analysts compare the MVRV overlapping curves of various cycles after the halving to the current position, believing that the current market value relative to the holding cost is nearing a range that historically only appears in the second half of the cycle, during extremely pessimistic sentiment; on the other hand, on-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that chips in a loss state on the UTXO dimension are being concentratedly sold off, with the proportion of loss transactions exceeding that of profit transactions. This "realizing losses to exit" transaction structure often corresponds to a collective surrender phase in past cycles. With multiple on-chain signals aggregated, a mainstream interpretation is forming: Bitcoin is likely already entering the vicinity of the bottom of this cycle and is accumulating momentum for subsequent phase rebound, although these signals indicate a range of volatility rather than precise price levels. Historical experience also reminds investors that even close to the bottom, Bitcoin's price may still experience significant short-term fluctuations.
MVRV After Halving Signals Bottom
While several on-chain indicators are interpreted as a "surrender phase," Murphy focused on the overlapping MVRV curve after the halving. The so-called MVRV after halving refers to placing different Bitcoin cycles on the same halving timeline, overlapping the MVRV trends from each cycle to compare the current price with the general range of historical positions during the same phase. Through this overlapping observation, the current curve of this cycle is drawn back to the same time window after previous halvings, allowing investors to visually see how close the current position is to historical market conditions, be it at the end of a sharp decline, in a consolidation range, or during a rebound phase.
Murphy concluded that this overlapping curve indicates that Bitcoin is approaching the historically corresponding "weak rebound range," meaning that in previous cycles, similar MVRV positions often correspond to a gradual recovery from the bottom area but with limited momentum, rather than the starting point of further significant declines. Within this judgment framework, he believes the probability of the price once again testing around $50,000 is small. This view clearly diverges from some voices in the market that still expect "further declines to lower prices," making the MVRV after halving a key piece of on-chain evidence repeatedly referenced in the current bottom conjecture.
UTXO Loss Transactions Amplifying Surrender Sentiment
If the MVRV after halving characterizes the overall profit and loss state of the entire holding group on a macro level, then the observation based on UTXO leans more towards a micro level: each unspent transaction output has an approximate "cost price" scale on-chain. When this UTXO is spent (i.e., a transaction occurs), on-chain analysis can categorize it as a profit transaction or a loss transaction by comparing the current price with the historical cost, thus determining whether more people are taking profits or passively realizing losses to exit.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost based his surrender judgment on this framework: he observed that the proportion of transactions in a loss state in the current market is significantly higher than that in a profit state, and the UTXOs being spent are more often being sold at prices below their costs. Historically, when this state of "loss transactions outweighing profit transactions" becomes concentrated and amplified, it often corresponds to a phase of emotional collapse among market participants, collectively realizing losses and exiting—the reputation of such concentrated loss-taking behavior typically appears when prices have already dropped to the vicinity of the current bottom area.
On-Chain Signal Resonance: Defining the Bottom Range
When looking at Murphy's overlapping MVRV curve after halving alongside Darkfost's triggered signal based on UTXO loss transaction proportions, two types of indicators of different natures point in the same direction: the former provides a range judgment from a valuation perspective indicating "the current cycle is close to the historically weak rebound range, with a low probability of further declining to around $50,000," while the latter illustrates a surrender characteristic from a behavioral perspective of "concentrated amplification of loss transactions, with investors collectively realizing losses." Several media outlets reported by juxtaposing these two types of on-chain signals, viewing them as mutual corroboration that Bitcoin is approaching the bottom region of this cycle, rather than isolated single indicator noise.
It is crucial to emphasize that these types of on-chain indicators are closer to marking a "bottom band," rather than providing a specific price point that can be precisely hit for bottom-fishing. Historical experience shows that even when entering the vicinity of the bottom, Bitcoin's price can still experience sizable short-term fluctuations. Additionally, MVRV, UTXO, and other on-chain data essentially reflect statistical characteristics of past trading behaviors, which can contain noise and lag characteristics. If interpreted independently from the current price trend and macro environment, it can easily lead to amplified misinterpretation. Therefore, this research brief is marked as a degraded model of failed generation and explicitly reminds readers to maintain a cautious attitude towards the conclusion of "bottom resonance," using on-chain surrender signals merely as a reference for judging the bottom range, rather than relying solely on them for precise buy-sell decisions.
Controversy and Risk Space Around Testing $50,000
The current discourse surrounding whether there will be a "further decline" to around $50,000 is more of a narrative game rather than data consensus. On one hand, Murphy firmly judges the probability of Bitcoin further testing around $50,000 as low based on a comparison of the overlapping MVRV curve after halving, thereby reinforcing the market impression that "we are currently in the bottom range"; on the other hand, the brief did not provide supportive or opposing data from other analysts regarding this price point, which means that $50,000 seems more like a reference coordinate chosen by the market rather than a hard boundary price verified by multiple parties. Considering that this research brief is labeled as a model of failed generation, any inferences about a price floor should naturally be discounted.
Even if one accepts the framework of the "bottom range," the price path may still be extremely tortuous: historically, Bitcoin has often shown significant short-term withdrawals when nearing the bottom region, and the on-chain surrender signals usually correspond to a range rather than a single precise price point. For investors, the real need is to assess the risk space rather than a specific absolute number—besides the on-chain indicators, macro liquidity tightening or releasing, unexpected regulatory events, etc., may amplify volatility, causing the price to zigzag dramatically within the range perceived as the bottom. Therefore, any operational hypothesis based on "will not drop to $50,000" must also take into account the potential disturbances of these external variables.
Script After Surrender: Rebound or Bottom Grinding
Considering the rising proportion of loss transactions, the collective realization of losses among investors, and the historical weak rebound range outlined by the overlapping MVRV curve after halving, the current on-chain picture suggests an increase in the probability of sentiment releasing near the lows and the price oscillating within the bottom range. The resonance of multiple signals indicates that the current phase can be viewed as "approaching the bottom and possibly seeing some degree of rebound," which is not without data support. However, these conclusions are primarily probabilistic propositions in a statistical sense rather than assurances of a determined future path, and certainly not an absolute endorsement against "not dropping to around $50,000." Historically, when Bitcoin approaches the bottom range, it has experienced both slow ascending phases along the weak rebound zone indicated by the MVRV as well as lengthy horizontal grinding processes within the same region that repeatedly swept out losses. The real differences lie in the pace of macro liquidity and emotional recovery, rather than the shape of a single on-chain indicator. Thus, under this analyzed framework marked as "brief generation failed," a reasonable strategy is to regard on-chain surrender and bottom signals as inputs for building scenarios: on one hand, reserving positions and expectations for possible weak rebounds; on the other hand, preparing psychologically and in terms of risk control for prolonged bottom grinding, amplified volatility, and potential retests of the bottom range.
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