Recently, from the Invesco central bank survey to the latest report from the Bank for International Settlements, then to Japan's retail sales and changes in energy and the situation in the Middle East, several seemingly scattered data sets are pointing to the same conclusion: the world is re-pricing high debt, geopolitical risks, and the AI boom. Invesco disclosed that 61% of surveyed central banks believe that high U.S. debt is weakening the dollar's attractiveness as a reserve asset, and 71% consider "resilience" to be as important as returns against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions; next, the Bank for International Settlements warns of high public debt and financial fragility, and questions the sustainability of the current AI boom. Japanese retail sales grew for the third consecutive month in May supported by wage increases and government subsidies, the U.S. and Iran agreed to stop mutual attacks and plan to hold technical talks on issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, while Putin acknowledged tight domestic fuel supplies in Russia, and the government is considering a total ban on diesel exports, further disturbing global energy supply and demand expectations. Under these overlapping shocks, the market is forced to reassess not only the credit status of the dollar and the sustainability of global debt, AI and the technology investment cycle, energy prices and geopolitical risk premiums but also the risk preferences and trading structures of BTC, ETH, dollar-pegged assets, and high-beta crypto sectors.

Central banks doubt the dollar: reserve diversification accelerates

In this round of reassessment, the most crucial signal comes from the "tilt" of the official reserve side itself. Invesco's latest survey shows that 61% of participating central banks clearly believe that the high level of U.S. debt is weakening the dollar's attractiveness as a reserve asset; at the same time, against the backdrop of rising geopolitical risks, 71% of central banks have deemed asset "resilience" to be as important as returns. The participants are reserve managers directly responsible for official reserve allocations, implying that doubt about the dollar is not merely market sentiment, but has entered the asset allocation framework at the decision-making level: shifting from a "single high liquidity anchor" to a combination optimization of "multiple assets, multiple currencies, and resilience against sanctions and volatility." For the crypto market, this is not just a simple "de-dollarization" slogan but the marginal weakening of the dollar as a global pricing anchor and risk benchmark, thereby changing the risk premium structure of assets highly tied to the dollar.

The current mainstream dollar-pegged accounting assets (such as USDT, USDC) are closely linked to U.S. Treasury bonds and dollar liquidity on the asset side, which means that they are essentially "extended dollar assets" under the pressure of interest rate cycles and Treasury supply. When central bank reserve diversification and increasing resilience become a medium- to long-term trend, the market's assumption of "sustainability of U.S. debt + absolute safety of dollar assets" is discounted, thereby raising the relative attractiveness of two types of assets: first, BTC, viewed as relatively decoupled from any sovereign credit, whose narratives of "digital safe haven asset" and "stateless reserve asset" are more likely to garner risk-hedging premiums in an environment where official credit is discounted; second, on-chain settlement assets not priced or pegged solely to the dollar, which have a better chance of capturing cross-border funding and trade settlement demands when capital intentionally diversifies dollar exposure. In other words, the diversification of central bank reserves is not just a reallocation of Treasury and foreign exchange positions but is structurally increasing the market's tolerance and willingness to allocate towards "non-dollar anchors" and "supra-sovereign digital assets."

BIS sounds the alarm: high debt and AI bubble risks

While the Invesco survey highlights the "discounting of sovereign credit," the latest report from the Bank for International Settlements adds constraints from another perspective: global economic growth is facing multiple pressures from excessive public debt and financial fragility. After multiple rounds of rate hikes in major economies, both public and private sector leverage remain high, and the combination of high interest rates and high debt means that if central banks intervene in a future rate-cutting cycle by "going too fast or too deep," it will immediately trigger concerns about inflation and asset bubbles, thereby raising expectations of a "higher, longer" interest rate central. Under this constraint, the valuation discount rates of traditional risk assets such as stocks and bonds are forced to rise, risk premiums are difficult to compress significantly, and the valuation elasticity of on-chain high-beta assets (especially BTC/ETH) will also be restrained, making them more likely to amplify volatility in the marginal changes of interest rate expectations.

The same report questions the sustainability of the current AI boom, which directly points to the most robust asset sectors over the past period: AI-related tech stocks have become a significant source of gains in global stock markets, but this also means that the "AI + tech beta" trades are highly crowded; once profit-taking does not meet expectations or regulatory and interest rate shocks trigger valuation reassessments, a correction in high-beta tech stocks will lead to a chain of deleveraging. As more and more market funds see BTC/ETH as a high-beta expression of tech growth and liquidity cycles, once the AI theme and growth stocks enter a retraction phase, correlated trading will amplify the sensitivity of crypto assets to tech stock volatility, making BTC/ETH exhibit higher frequency and greater amplitude price fluctuations under dual disturbances of macro interest rates and AI sentiment.

Japan's consumption rebounds and China's employment stabilizes growth efforts

While external doubts arise regarding the sustainability of U.S. high debt and AI valuations, Japan and China's domestic demand and employment signals are marginally improving. Japan's retail sales in May have grown for the third consecutive month supported by rising wages and government subsidies, clearly strengthening market expectations for a "soft landing" of the Japanese economy. For asset pricing, this means that cash flow pressure on Japanese households and institutional sectors is easing, risk premiums on local currency assets are decreasing, which is conducive to supporting the valuation of risk assets priced in yen, and increases the yen funding's tolerance and holding patience for high-beta assets (including BTC/ETH).

China concurrently released the "Implementation of Employment Priority Strategy 14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing broadening flexible employment and new employment channels, and improving relevant guarantees, essentially stabilizing medium- to long-term growth and social expectations through the employment side. Improved employment expectations will weaken the motivation for "defensive savings" and elevate consumption and investment demand, supporting valuations of risk assets priced in yuan from a macro perspective. Both Japan and China are significant players in global crypto trading and mining; within this context, improvements in growth expectations for major Asian economies will help stabilize the sources of crypto funds priced in yen and yuan, easing passive sell-off pressures from the region during a global deleveraging phase; on the other hand, when the attractiveness of dollar reserves is questioned and global funds seek regional and asset diversification, Asia, with its growing resilience, is likely to attract some incremental allocations, a portion of which may flow into crypto assets such as BTC/ETH via local fiat currency, increasing their sensitivity to Japan's consumption and China's employment data in future cycles.

South Korea injects 200 trillion won to ignite AI tech beta

With the relative resilience in Asia's fundamentals, South Korea chooses to leverage its "flagship industry strategy" to the extreme in the tech cycle. According to South Korean media, as part of President Lee Jae-myung's flagship industry strategy, Samsung and SK Group are expected to invest up to 200 trillion won, approximately $130 billion, over the next decade, focusing on high-end manufacturing sectors such as semiconductors and AI. As one of the core producing countries for global memory chips and certain key semiconductor supply chains, such a scale and long-term capital expenditure essentially provides a clear long-term investment curve for "global AI infrastructure," strengthening the market's theme trade of "computing power + chips + large models" integration, and raising expectations for the valuation elasticity of global high-beta tech assets.

In terms of asset pricing, traditional tech stocks and some crypto AI concept tokens have recently been classified by market consensus as high-beta assets. Such extremely large semiconductor and AI investment plans will push capital to first go long on "upstream AI hardware cycles" in South Korean and U.S. semiconductor and AI sectors, then spill over along the risk curve to on-chain sectors related to computing power and AI, increasing the β of these tokens relative to BTC/ETH. At the same time, when the AI and chip indices experience amplified fluctuations due to Korean investment expectations, BTC/ETH's nature as a "tech cycle option" will also be traded repeatedly, potentially increasing its correlation with global tech stocks and chip indices; it is necessary to observe whether the trading volume proportion of AI-related on-chain sectors and BTC/ETH's β to chip index fluctuations continue to rise, thereby verifying whether this round of South Korea-led AI capital expenditure can form a sustainable tech beta premium in the crypto market.

Middle East easing and tight Russian oil: energy repricing

Geopolitically, the U.S. and Iran have agreed to stop their mutual attacks and plan to hold technical talks in Qatar regarding the memorandum of understanding and issues related to the Strait of Hormuz, effectively cooling the risk premium for this critical crude oil and refined product transport route. The market originally had high expectations for shipping interruptions and oil price surges; this development compresses the geopolitical risk premium towards the Middle East, which helps suppress short-term oil price shocks, somewhat easing inflation expectations. However, almost simultaneously, Putin acknowledged tight domestic fuel supplies in Russia, with long lines at gas stations, and the Russian side is considering a total ban on diesel exports to prioritize domestic supply, once again raising uncertainty over global refined oil supplies, making the energy risks that might have trended down due to Middle East easing become directionally ambiguous again.

The result is that the path of crude oil and refined product prices is no longer a unilateral "risk premium contraction," but rather a counterbalance between the easing in the Middle East and tightening Russian oil, leading to an increase in the divergence of inflation and interest rate expectations: on one end, the decreasing risk in the Strait of Hormuz alleviates CPI pressures, while on the other end, potential tightening of refined products like diesel raises transportation and production costs. For BTC/ETH, this path uncertainty is more crucial than a singular oil price shock: if refined oil disturbances dominate and inflation rises again, expectations of "high rates for longer" will suppress the overall valuations of risk assets, but at the same time strengthen certain funds' motivations to view BTC/ETH as a hedge against medium- to long-term inflation and debt risks; if the market places more trust in Middle East easing dominating and energy inflation pressures dulling, interest rate expectations will be favorable for a rebound in risk preferences, and BTC/ETH may behave more like high-beta tech assets, moving in sync with the stock market. For crypto trading, the current situation resembles a volatility market surrounding the "inflation-interest rate path" game rather than a simple bet on a one-sided upward or downward trend in oil prices.

BTC and ETH trading under multiple macro signals

In an environment where high U.S. debt leads to decreased reserve attractiveness (as 61% of central banks indicated in the Invesco survey), and energy and geopolitical risks continue to fluctuate (uncertainty over the Russian discussion on banning diesel exports and U.S.-Iran easing), BTC appears more like a cross-sovereign "digital asset balance sheet" in asset allocation: one end anchors the debt and credit risks of fiat currency systems, while the other end anchors the long-term hedging demands against energy, inflation, and geopolitical premiums. Alongside this, the Bank for International Settlements’ warnings about debt and financial fragility, Korea's plans for ultra-large-scale AI and semiconductor investments combined with Musk's elevating expectations for Grok 4.5, suggest simultaneous increases in AI-related capital expenditures and bubble risks, with ETH and high-beta sectors thus being more deeply tied to tech valuations and liquidity cycles. Operationally, in the short term, it is necessary to concurrently track the three main lines of U.S. interest rate expectations (repricing of debt and inflation), AI sentiment (strength of tech and computing styles), and energy prices (Middle East and Russian supply changes), dynamically adjusting the relative weights of BTC/ETH, and the proportion of crypto vs. fiat currency positions, seeing BTC more as an exposure to sovereign and inflation risk factors, while treating ETH and high-beta tokens as exposures to tech and liquidity risk factors.

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