This week we focus on the non-farm payroll data to be announced on Thursday. The current market situation is not merely due to panic selling, but rather a dual pressure from institutions cashing out profits and a hawkish monetary policy. Therefore, the true bottom is still some distance away. I advise contract players not to rush into bottom-fishing!
Today's thought summary: Continue to hold short positions, paying close attention to the resistance level of Bitcoin at 60600, with the next resistance at around 61200 to 62700. For Ethereum, the resistance is around 1685, with the next resistance at 1610 to 1620 to 1650. These levels are the main pressure points for this cycle!
Spot buying levels: BTC: range of 53000 to 45000, ETH: range of 1380 to 1180 to 1120, Sol: just wait for around 53.5 to participate in the spot market! (This is expected to occur around August to September, at the latest by November)
Next, let me share my thoughts. Friends who are not patient enough to read a long article can skip to focus on the above several resistance levels for trading! Those who want to follow Jiang Feng’s thoughts to get involved in the market can continue to read!
Why have I been bearish since the end of October last year? One reason is the narrative of the halving cycle, and the second is the geopolitical turmoil that has increased risk aversion. Bitcoin has slowly declined from a safe haven asset to a high-risk asset. It ultimately could not maintain the title of digital gold. Now that geopolitical tensions are escalating, it drops when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates; it drops when gold rises. The more such logic drives it, the better we can grasp its specific movements. In the current economic environment, it is difficult to reverse the trend of Bitcoin's decline anytime soon! Fundamentals determine direction; next, we will find specific entry points from the market.
Bitcoin: (The indicators have certain lag, and I'm actually not very eager to discuss them in detail due to the macroeconomic fundamentals being concerning, unfortunately)
On the daily level, the moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, the lower Bollinger band is opening downward, further opening up the space for decline. The MACD red energy bar is shrinking and approaching the zero axis, while the fast and slow lines form a golden cross diverging upward, indicating some rebound demand (in fact, this is just the indicators appearing after a slight rebound in price. Remember that the candlestick and indicators are just results of price, not the cause of price).
On the four-hour chart, there is currently resistance around the EMA21 moving average near 60200 and the middle Bollinger band. The SRI is turning down and expanding. The dense resistance area is around 606000 and near the 61200 golden ratio 618 position. This is worth monitoring; if it effectively breaks through the upper resistance level, it will come to around 62700. So today, just focus on the above several points for layout!
Ethereum:
The trend is basically synchronized, but since I am operating Ethereum daily, the points may be more precise. Based on the previous publicly shared points, everyone should know that the recent high short points deviate by less than 10 points (generally only 1-5 points). Basically, they immediately drop once reaching the entry points. Interested friends can refer to previous articles!
Today’s specific reference upper resistance levels:
Bitcoin: resistance at around 60600 to 61200 to 62700, support levels below to monitor: 59000 to 58600 to 57500 to 53000.
Ethereum: resistance around 1610 to 1620 to 1650, hold onto the shorts from the weekend's 1585 if you reduced your position; support levels below to monitor: 1550 to 1510 to 1450 to 1370.
Finally, regarding the short positions entered based on previous article strategies: BTC: shorts at around 65600 to 63200 to 60800, ETH: shorts at around 1600 to 1780 to 1585. Friends who reduced positions after hitting targets can continue to play accordingly. The above were precise high short entry points from last week; there is no need to mention them again this week; just manage based on your actual position!
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