1. Macroeconomic and Policy Aspects
• The tensions between the US and Iran have eased, leading to a rise in market risk appetite, with global risk assets surging, particularly US tech stocks, with the Nasdaq up over 2%, prompting a synchronized rebound in cryptocurrencies.

• US Fed's May PCE inflation rose to 4.1%, exceeding expectations, and the market has postponed interest rate cut expectations to 2027, with even a possibility of rate hikes within the year; the tightening dollar liquidity continues to suppress the crypto market.

• The Senate vote on the CLARITY Act and the ETF fund flows in July will become core deciding variables for the direction in the third quarter.

2. Institutional Fund Movements
• BlackRock today transferred 7,432 BTC (about $446 million) and 8,150 ETH to Coinbase Prime, raising market concerns about institutional selling pressure.

• In June, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw cumulative net outflows of over $4.06 billion, setting a record for the largest single-month outflow since their launch; last week saw a single-week net outflow of $1.79 billion, marking the third-largest in history.

• Strategy Company (MSTR) announced a Bitcoin monetization and capital restructuring plan, alleviating short-term market selling concerns and pushing the coin price back above $60,000.

• Solana ETFs recorded net inflows, differentiating from the continuous outflows from BTC/ETFs, with funds starting to focus on niche sector opportunities.

3. On-chain and Ecological Data
• The Crypto Fear and Greed Index reported a score of 15, indicating extreme fear, hitting a low of 12 yesterday, the lowest level since 2024.

• Long-term Bitcoin holders (holding positions for over 155 days) have accumulated over 2 million additional coins during this round of decline, bringing total holdings to a historical record of 16.3 million, contrasting sharply with institutional short-term selling.

• Bitcoin's market dominance climbed to 57.89%, with funds continuously flowing back from altcoins to BTC for hedging purposes.

• The Solana RWA ecosystem's scale surpassed $3.03 billion, with a 30-day growth of 13.2%, and monthly transaction volume surged by 120.5%, becoming a structural highlight.

4. Contract Market
• Approximately $315 million to $333 million worth of liquidations occurred globally in the past 24 hours, predominantly from short positions (about $239 million), with the rebound mainly driven by short covering.

• Market trading volume surged by 36%, with open interest rising by 2.57%, as leveraged funds re-entered to capitalize on the rebound.
II. BTC Market Analysis and Trading Strategy

Current Price: About $60,000 (Day Range: $58,900 - $60,660)

Technical Analysis

• Trend Qualitative: The daily long-term bearish pattern remains unchanged, with prices running below the 50/200-day moving averages; the short-term movement is a technical rebound after overselling, not a trend reversal.

• RSI 33.8: Nearing the oversold edge, with short-term recovery momentum, but no strong bullish signals.

• MACD: Green bars are shrinking, with downward momentum weakening, but the fast and slow lines remain in a bearish arrangement.

Key Levels
Strong Resistance: 61,000 – 61,500, a densely packed area during the current decline, the first resistance for the rebound.
Turning Point: 60,600, the dividing line for bulls and bears intraday; stabilizing above this level may open up rebound space.
Intraday Support: 59,000, today’s correction bottom line; a breakdown here returns to a weak position.
Strong Support: 58,100, the 52-week low, the core bottom for this decline; a breakdown opens up greater downward space.

Trading Strategy
• Focused on Short Positions: If a rebound occurs to the 60,600-61,000 range, consider shorting in batches, targeting 59,000 and 58,100, with a stop-loss above 61,800.

• Cautious Bullish Speculation: If a dip occurs near 59,000 without breaking, consider a small position for a rebound, targeting 60,000-60,600, with quick entry and exits, avoiding prolonged trades.

• Mid-term Observation: Until the critical support at 58,100 is effectively maintained, it’s not advised to aggressively bottom-fish on the left side; if it breaks effectively, the next target range looks at 54,000-56,000 (network average cost area).

III. ETH Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Current Price: About $1,590 - $1,610

Technical Analysis
• Trend Qualitative: Bearish dominance on daily charts, with ETH/BTC exchange rate continuously weakening; funds prefer BTC as a hedge, limiting Ethereum's independent upward momentum.

• The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are tightening, with volatility narrowing, demonstrating overall low-level range fluctuations, indicative of only technical recovery.

• RSI in the oversold range, with downward momentum diminishing, but sellers still dominate order flow.

Key Levels
Strong Resistance: 1,700, the daily dividing line for bulls and bears; stabilizing above may potentially reverse the downward structure.
Short-term Resistance: 1,600 – 1,640, the pressure area for rebounds today.
Intraday Support: 1,548 – 1,560, dense transaction area at today’s lows.
Strong Support: 1,500, psychological barrier plus market bottom support for spot buying.

Trading Strategy
• Focused on High Shorts: If a rebound occurs to the 1,590-1,610 range, consider shorting, targeting 1,550 and 1,500, with a stop-loss above 1,660.

• Bearish Scenario (High Probability): After a rebound hit the pressure, testing 1,550, extreme dive into the 1,500 level.

• Recovery Scenario: If BTC drives a strong increase and stabilizes above 1,600, it could reach 1,640-1,660, but still faces pressure at 1,700.

• Mid to Long-term Bearish: Continuous net outflows from spot ETFs, demand diversion from the L2 track, and budget cuts from the Ethereum Foundation create persistent selling pressure.

IV. SOL Market Analysis and Trading Strategy
Current Price: About $75 (performing stronger than BTC/ETH today, with a 24h increase of about 6.5%)

Technical Analysis
• Relatively Strong: Leading the mainstream coins today, driven by RWA ecosystem benefits and oversold rebounds; in 4-hour price tightly runs along the upper Bollinger Band, further opening up the upward trend.

• Has recorded monthly declines for eight consecutive months, which is historically rare; according to the pattern, there’s a high probability that a cyclical bottom recovery will appear in the ninth month.

• However, mid-term moving averages are still in a bearish arrangement, and the overall downward trend has not been completely reversed.

Key Levels
Strong Resistance: 78 – 80, near the 50-day moving average, an important short-term threshold.
Short-term Resistance: 76, the first resistance level intraday.
Intraday Support: 72 – 73, the platform where the rebound starts.
Strong Support: 68 – 70, the recent bottom support range.

Trading Strategy
• Short-term Bullish Thoughts: Consider small positions for buying near 72-73, targeting 76 and 78, with a stop-loss below 69.

• If it effectively breaks above $78 and stabilizes, it could look up to around $86; if unable to break the 76-78 resistance range, it returns to weak oscillations.

• Risk Awareness: SOL is highly elastic and volatile; the rebound is mainly driven by ecological benefits and sentiment, lacking consistent institutional fund inflow support, hence it is not recommended to heavily chase high prices.

• Extreme Downward Scenario: If breaking below the $70 support, look down to $65 and $60.
V. Overall Summary and Risk Warning
1. General Direction: The medium-term bearish layout remains unchanged, currently falling within a technical rebound after overselling, not a trend reversal. The high-interest rate environment set by the Fed and continuous ETF fund outflows are the core suppressing factors.

2. Divergent Market: BTC's dominance continues to rise, with funds flowing back for safety at the top; coins like SOL that have ecological catalysts exhibit greater elasticity, but also carry higher risks.

3. Time Window: With June's monthly close coinciding with the end of the quarter, funding is cautious; in July, it is crucial to pay close attention to whether ETF fund flows improve, the progress of the CLARITY Act, and signals from the Fed regarding policy.
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