Odaily editorial team tea party (July 1)

CN
3 hours ago

This is an "informal" column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares immediate thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, trending events, and their nuances; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses that are still under validation—they may not necessarily be direct wealth codes, and could just be the questions themselves; shares observations gained from communication with industry practitioners; and presents materials that have genuinely enhanced our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observational experiences of Odaily editorial team members, does not accept any form of commercial advertising, and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are equally experienced with losing money). Its purpose is merely to expand perspectives and supplement information sources, rather than to create consensus. You are welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, official X account) to exchange ideas, question, and joke around.

Wenser (@wenser2010)

Introduction: A junior tea server, crypto soy sauce party, media observer

Sharing: 1. Circle (CRCL) was hit hard by Open USD, the stock price has fallen below lower levels, but I personally feel that OUSD seems to have gathered more than 140 institutions; in reality, it cannot win the large-scale application battle against stablecoins because the more institutions involved, the harder it is to integrate and coordinate. In the short term, it still heavily relies on cooperation between institutions, and considering how institutions cooperate, just think about the processes of traditional banks. So I prefer to pick up some shares around 56-60, and then wait for a rebound to around 85-90; even though the current performance is poor, the long-term target for CRCL remains at 150, mainly depending on the passage of the clarity bill.

2. Previously, Citrini's Jukan said memory is more important than graphics chips, and I personally agree with this view, so Micron, SanDisk, SK Hynix, and Samsung still play monopolistic roles in the industry; this includes Changxin, which went public earlier this month; looking at a current pullback of 20%-25% from the recent highs, it's close to the bottom fishing and rebound phase.

3. Strategy has proposed a plan to sell coins worth $1.25 billion, suddenly it seems that the re-anchoring of STRC is hopeful, because once the market sentiment reaches a certain point, there will be no more 'meat' to cut; coupled with the progress of subsequent dividend payments, it can still rise a bit, and can be viewed as a wealth management strategy, a small investment to test the waters. This is not investment advice, just a personal opinion for reference.

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Introduction: Beginner, learning multiple disciplines

Sharing: Recently, my attention has mainly been on the US stock market.

1. Semiconductors are still the main line of the world. The benefits of the semiconductor expansion cycle on the entire upstream equipment industrial chain are the main line among the main lines. The lithography oligarch ASML, etch dominator LRCX, deposition giant AMAT, and inspection powerhouse KLAC all collectively hit historical highs last night. While they are certainly expensive, there’s a reason for that, and the benefits are highly certain; thousands of billions of dollars in expansion orders will flow to these equipment suppliers (refer to South Korea's 800 trillion won expansion plan).

2. Hynix is set to go to the US soon; the recent performance somewhat reflects a valuation suppression (to make the post-listing performance look better), but it's also a good bottom-fishing opportunity; Micron (MU) is not being considered for now, as after Hynix goes to the US, the scarcity premium of Micron as the only HBM stock in US markets will be weakened, not to say it won't rise, but in terms of cost-performance, it won't be as good as Hynix.

3. I picked up some Rocket Lab (RKLB) around 80-85; I initially intended to buy more, but did not expect the share price to soar after the acquisition news of Iridium came out. Currently, RKLB is still in the stock-selling window declared by the CEO, and if there’s another pullback, I will continue to add shares.

4. Continuing to hold Robinhood (HOOD), nothing much to say. In June, it reached a historical high in stock trading volume in just three and a half weeks, with predicted market revenue also soaring; the performance support is strong enough, so just leave time for the price to break through.

5. Circle (CRCL) is temporarily not looking good, as Open USD is coming in strong. On the payment front, Stripe has always been an obstacle in front of Circle, and this time Open USD clearly bears the shadow of Stripe (with the founder of its subsidiary Bridge serving as the CEO of the Open USD issuing company), effectively making Stripe actively choose to challenge Circle. Circle should have been caught off guard last night, and its CEO came out and talked a lot of nonsense; let's see if any defensive measures are taken.

Asher (@Asher_0210)

Introduction: Regular routine, long-term investment

Sharing: 1. I have not taken large positions in US stock trading, patiently waiting for a bottom in the crypto market. Recently, US stock trading has been little more than attempts along with friends in the group, but since I bought little, the losses or profits don’t really feel significant. I personally believe that the US stock market exhibits characteristics of a late bull market, and at this stage, I do not plan to take positions; I won’t take that last bite. Regarding crypto, I'll stick with my previous viewpoint, patiently waiting for the bottom, and will start dollar-cost averaging when BTC drops below $50,000; and ETH drops below $1,400, while also dollar-cost averaging into promising altcoins, for example, HYPE, PUMP, etc.

2. The main focus remains on prediction markets; recently, I’ve been obsessed with predictive following trades. As an early project airdrop participant, I remain focused on prediction markets in the second half of this year; predict.fun is the main line, and projects heavily tied to Binance need not elaborate on their value; Polymarket is currently trying to profit in conjunction with the following tool PPP (recommended reading for using PPP tool: From signal monitoring to strategy following, how PPP reduces trading barriers on Polymarket, link: https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/post/5211528), temporarily experiencing a day of profits and a day of losses, with the following strategies still being optimized. In other words, trading on predict is solely for the sake of airdropping; trading on Polymarket is only for potential profits.

Qin Xiaofeng (@QinXiaofeng888)

Introduction: Options enthusiast, Meme buyer

Sharing: In terms of operations, last Friday I picked up Spacex around 150. The buying logic is due to its inclusion in the Russell Index and the Nasdaq 100, with the latter's effective date being July 6, and I plan to sell before expiration.

Additionally, last night, the first stablecoin stock Circle faced a wave of FUD—Open Standard, supported by 140 firms, came in aggressively, planning to issue OUSD to divide the stablecoin cake, leading to a 17% drop in CRCL. In my view, OUSD will not significantly impact USDC, and CRCL is worth buying at a low: firstly, the stablecoin reserve earnings promoted by OUSD are attributed to its partners, a model previously used by Paxos; since launching USDG in 2024, its cumulative issuance has been less than 3 billion, only 4% of USDC's market cap, the future prospects of OUSD are currently exaggerated; secondly, the compliance thresholds of USDC put it one cycle ahead of its competitors; even if competitors replicate the business path, they would need at least 5 years to succeed in going public; before that, CRCL is the only stock in the stablecoin concept worth buying.

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