Many people have recently been unable to understand a core paradox: in June, BTC ETF saw a significant net outflow of 4.06 billion dollars, setting a record for the largest single-month outflow since its inception, far exceeding the 3.56 billion in February 2025. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT was the main driver of the exodus, with over 3 billion flowing out in a single month, marking a systematic exit by institutions.

Logically, a selling pressure of tens of billions should lead to a significant drop in price, but BTC instead steadily held support between 58,000 and 60,000, even rebounding past 61,000. There is only one core answer: institutions are selling, while whales and long-term holders are buying; the market is completing a rotation of main capital.

First, we need to correct everyone's misconception: the ETF outflow has indeed been fierce, but the worst phase has ended. From mid-May to early June, the outflow peaked, with 13 consecutive days of outflows, evaporating 4.4 billion dollars. Subsequently, the pace of outflow quickly diminished, from 1.72 billion in a single week plummeting to 226 million, a decrease of 87%. Since July, there has been a continuous weakening, even showing signs of slight reflow, marking the end of the phase of concentrated institutional selling.

The strongest support against price decline comes from the large-scale counter-trend accumulation by whales. In June, during the crazed ETF exodus and panic in market sentiment, the group of whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC cumulatively increased their holdings by 270,000 BTC, valued at nearly 2 billion dollars, achieving the largest monthly accumulation since 2013.

On-chain actions are very clear: on June 11, top whales withdrew 2,341 BTC from OKX, and multiple institutional custody addresses collectively withdrew over 3,000 BTC in late June, with significant holders increasing by over 30,000 BTC in a single week. The main players accurately accumulated coins at panic lows, showing a fully planned accumulation at low levels.

In addition, long-term holders locking in their assets have completely sealed off the possibility of declines due to bearish panic. Currently, long-term holders control 79% of circulating BTC, setting a historical high, far exceeding the 74.5% at the bottom in the previous two years. The activation volume of old chips has fallen to its lowest level since 2012, compared to the mass sales following the unlocking of million-level chips last year; the consensus on current market holdings is extremely strong. Even if the price retraces to 58,000, core faith capital has not fled in panic.

58,000 to 60,000 is absolutely the golden cost zone at this stage. Long-term holders have an average cost of 48,400, while above 58,000 is the core range of concentrated whale accumulation in June, with market makers heavily defending with placed orders. Order book data also supports this, with buy order depth in this zone far exceeding sell orders, providing very solid lower level support.

To summarize the current situation: in the short term, the market is suppressed by the residual selling pressure from ETFs, making rapid price increases difficult; but in the medium term, whale accumulation and long-term locked setups provide extremely solid bottom support. Currently, the 58,000 to 61,000 range is undergoing the final tug-of-war between bulls and bears for capital rotation.

There is no need to guess the direction in advance; simply wait patiently. The strength of support at 58,000 will determine whether the current round of capital rotation is completely over, signaling the start of a new round of unidirectional market trends.

A fan chatted with me, saying they usually play with spot trading, but with BTC’s ups and downs, they're considering engaging in contracts to earn extra profits to increase their spot holdings. I understand the thought but the approach is actually misguided. When the market is trending downwards, simply holding spot means passively enduring drawdowns, and relying solely on going long makes it hard to achieve profits.

I regularly share complete market logic and underlying ideas about rises and falls for free on public channels. However, precise operational entry points are only shared in the member group. In public reviews, I only analyze why the market rises and falls; in the member group, I provide specific entry zones, profit-taking targets, and stop-loss points that can be acted upon directly.

In public analysis, I will say not to blindly catch falling knives; once in the member group, key support levels are clearly marked, providing a complete plan for gradually laying down long positions as the price drops into corresponding ranges. To simplify: public content helps everyone build an objective and comprehensive trading understanding, avoiding common cognitive pitfalls; while the member group guides everyone in real trading, converting learned analytical thoughts into tangible operational profits.

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Disclaimer: This is solely my personal market review and does not constitute investment advice; cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries high risks, please control your positions wisely.

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