1. Macroscale
Today is the Independence Day holiday in the United States, and the US stock market is closed all day, with market liquidity being weak. In June, the US non-farm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations, marking a new low in nearly four months. The market subsequently lowered its expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate hikes this year, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, which in turn drove a collective rebound in risk assets such as gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies. Citigroup has lowered its 12-month target price for BTC to $82,000 and ETH to $2,240; the prediction platform Polymarket shows that the probability of BTC returning to $70,000 this year has risen to 65%.

2. Funds and Regulations
In the past three weeks, over $4.21 billion has flowed out of BTC spot ETFs, indicating weak institutional spot demand. This rebound is primarily driven by short covering and short-term capital speculation rather than a trend-based influx of funds. Morgan Stanley has submitted a SOL ETF issuance application, with compliance expectations supporting the resilience of the public chain sector; the XRP ETF recorded a net inflow of $22.99 million last week, outperforming BTC in terms of fund performance. The EU's MiCA cryptocurrency regulatory legislation officially took effect on July 1, leading unlicensed platforms to continue purging, which will suppress market liquidity in the medium to long term.

3. Sentiment and Cycles
In the past 24 hours, over 80,000 people have experienced liquidation across the network, with the concentration of short positions being the main driving force behind this rebound. The Fear & Greed Index previously dropped to an extreme fear range of 15; even after the rebound, it remains in the fear range, indicating overall weak market confidence. Institutional views suggest that we have now entered the latter stage of the current bear market, with historical cycle models indicating that a potential bottom may gradually form in the coming months.


Second, Overall Market Qualification
The daily level large cycle bearish trend has not been reversed, and this belongs to a technical rebound after an oversold condition. The trading volume has not continued to expand, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable. There is a clear differentiation among cryptocurrencies, with ETH and SOL showing significantly stronger resilience compared to BTC. The trading strategy should focus on short-term fluctuations, with prioritizing short positions on resistance during rebounds over aggressively buying highs, and avoiding heavy bottom fishing.

Three, BTC Bitcoin Market and Trading Strategy

Key Levels
• Short-term Support: 60,600 (day intra short and long split), 59,000 (strong support, this round's adjustment bottom)
• Short-term Resistance: 62,500-63,000 (first selling pressure range), 65,000 (strong resistance level)

Technical Analysis
The daily bearish structure remains unbroken, with MACD bearish momentum continuously narrowing, and RSI leaving the deep oversold area, which provides conditions for a rebound. The $60,000 level is an important psychological support; a rebound can continue if it stabilizes above 60,600; if it effectively drops below 59,000, a new round of decline will begin.

Operational Strategy
1. Short-Term Short (Preferred Idea): Enter short positions in batches as the price rebounds to the 62,500-63,000 range, with a stop loss above 63,500 and targets at 61,000 and 59,500.

2. Short-Term Long: Enter light long positions as it bounces back to stabilize in the 60,600-60,800 range, with a stop loss below 60,200 and targets at 62,000-62,500, and take profits in a timely manner without holding long-term.

3. Medium-Term Idea: Maintain a bearish judgment until it stabilizes above 63,000, without setting up medium-term long positions.

Four, ETH Ethereum Market and Trading Strategy

Key Levels
• Support: 1,680 (short-term support), 1,640 (strong support)
• Resistance: 1,760-1,780 (first selling pressure), 1,800 (daily trend reversal point)

Technical Analysis
The rebound in the past two days has approached 6%, showing significantly stronger resilience than Bitcoin. The ETH inventory on exchanges continues to decline, supporting the medium to long-term fundamentals, and in the short term, it follows the overall market rebound. The $1,500 level is the weekly critical line, if not broken, there is still room for medium-term repair.

Operational Strategy
1. Short-Term Long: Stabilize low buys as it pulls back to the 1,680-1,700 range, with a stop loss below 1,660 and targets at 1,750-1,760.

2. Short-Term Short: Short as it rebounds to the 1,760-1,780 range under pressure, with a stop loss above 1,800 and targets at 1,700-1,680.

3. Medium-Term Idea: The 1,640-1,660 area can be used to gradually build a small medium-term position, defending the $1,500 level and targeting 1,900-2,000.

Five, SOL Solana Market and Trading Strategy

Key Levels
• Support: 78.0, 75.5 (strong support)
• Resistance: 83-84, strong resistance at 87

Technical Analysis
SOL belongs to high-resilience public chain cryptocurrencies, with volatility far greater than BTC and ETH. Driven by the expected catalyst of Morgan Stanley's submission of the SOL ETF, this rebound leads mainstream coins, currently running above previous consolidation platforms, with a strong bullish sentiment in the short term.

Operational Strategy
1. Short-Term Long: Stabilize as it pulls back to the 78-79 range for long positions, with a stop loss below 76 and targets at 83-84.

2. Short-Term Short: As it rebounds to the 83-84 range and encounters resistance, enter short, with a stop loss above 85.5 and targets at 80 and 78.

3. Medium-Term Idea: The 75-76 area is a good quality accumulation zone for gradual entry, strictly setting stop losses, and controlling total positions.
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