Bitcoin 62500 was directly broken through, temporarily opening the channel of the previous fluctuation range. However, the first strong technical resistance above is stuck at 63000-64000. If it can stabilize above 63800 with increased volume later, there will be momentum to continue upwards to 65500, or even challenge below 6800. Overall, it will move in a wide fluctuation pattern between 58000 and 68000.

Next, pay close attention to 65400, this key resistance level. Only an effective breakthrough of 63800 will provide a chance to reach this level. It can be clearly seen from the four-hour chart thatthe price-volume divergence shows that the trading momentum on both the long and short sides is continuously shrinking, indicating that there is actually a hidden demand for a pullback in the short term, but the possibility of a short-term rebound reaching 65500 still exists.

This weekend, this large volume bullish candle directly broke through previous highs, and all the bearish logic previously held has become invalid. However, there is still no complete signal to confidently go long, and the short-term direction of the market has become clear, which is to continue the upward rebound.

Firstly, regarding going long, even if consecutive bullish candles and the price breaking previous highs are facts, it is absolutely not advisable to chase the price now. Regardless of exhaustion signals for bears, standard reversal K-line patterns, or volume matching conditions, none are yet in place, and the entry conditions are completely unmet.

Regarding going short, all the logic analyzed previously for bearish positions has been directly overturned by this large bullish candle, and the short signal has completely disappeared. However, the data from CryptoQuant is worth long-term vigilance, as the continuous accumulation of large whales at exchanges poses a hidden risk buried in the market. To reposition shorts, one can only wait for the market to reach a higher pressure zone before waiting for a signal to develop.

Considering all the current signals, my practical approach is to remain in cash and observe. This morning's large bullish candle has directly rewritten the short-term trend structure, but the nearly 50,000 Bitcoin accumulated daily in exchanges hangs over like a sword, with medium-term risks always present.

Additionally, it should be reminded that this breakout of the range cannot simply be concluded based on the weekend's bullish candle; we must wait until Monday's working day when market liquidity returns and trading volume increases simultaneously, to confirm that the breakout is valid. To rashly chase highs now poses a very poor risk-reward ratio and low cost-effectiveness; it is better to patiently wait for confirmation signals to settle before taking action.

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Disclaimer: This is purely an individual analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is extremely volatile, and contract trading carries high risks. Please manage your positions responsibly.

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