1. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Risks

◦ The situation between the U.S. and Iran has escalated again, with the U.S. military launching a new round of strikes against Iran, increasing risks in the Strait of Hormuz and causing oil prices to rise. Global risk assets are generally under pressure, but the crypto market shows resilience stronger than tech stocks, with no panic selling occurring.

◦ At 2 PM Eastern Time today, the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes will be released, with the market paying close attention to the policy stance of the new chair, Waller. Dovish signals will be beneficial for risk assets, while hawkish statements may intensify short-term volatility.

2. Policy and Regulatory Trends

◦ The White House has confirmed that the strategic Bitcoin reserve has entered the formal construction phase, collaborating with the Treasury Department and other agencies to study the operational framework. The U.S. government currently holds about 328,000 BTC seized through legal means, promising not to sell, and Congress is pushing a bill to allow the government to actively purchase Bitcoin, which will constitute a significant long-term positive.

◦ The U.S. SEC has released its regulatory agenda for 2026, aiming to advance the trading of tokenized securities and the establishment of rules for crypto brokers, with the regulatory framework gradually becoming clearer.

3. Institutional and On-chain Dynamics

◦ Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) sold 3,588 BTC (approximately $210 million) for the first time since going public, causing short-term panic in the market. BTC temporarily fell below $61,300 but the market quickly absorbed the negative news, with prices returning above $63,000.

◦ Tether transferred 500 million USDT to Binance, with significant inflows of stablecoins into the exchange. The market is watching to see if this will translate into buying power.

◦ Asset management giant Vanguard is publicly recruiting a head for digital assets, focusing on tokenization, stablecoins, and blockchain infrastructure, as traditional finance continues to push into the space.

4. Overall Market Data
◦ The total global crypto market cap is approximately $2.25 trillion, with a 24-hour decline of about 1%. BTC's market share remains at 56.5%, with funds showing a defensive allocation, and altcoins overall weaker than major coins.

◦ In the past 24 hours, over 100,000 accounts liquidated across the network, with a total amount of about $400 million, as long and short positions fiercely contended within the $63,000-$64,600 range; $60,470 is the "lifeline" for bulls, with a break triggering about $1.5 billion in long liquidations, and $66,740 is the key resistance for bears, with a breakthrough possibly causing a short squeeze.

II. Overall Market Overview
The current market is in a phase of consolidation after a rebound, with geopolitical risks suppressing risk appetite, but expectations for BTC's strategic reserves and long-term institutional layouts provide bottom support. In the broader trend, the mid-term bearish pattern has not yet been completely reversed, with a short-term approach treating it as range-bound volatility; positions should be strictly controlled to avoid chasing highs or panicking during falls.

III. Analysis and Trading Strategies by Coin Type
1. BTC (Bitcoin)
Technical Aspect: The 4-hour level is in a rebound consolidation phase, showing a rectangular oscillation structure. The support level below is $62,600 for short-term bulls, and the pressure range above is $64,000-$65,000; on the daily level, it has not broken the descending channel, making the rebound qualify as a corrective trend.

Key Levels
• Support: $62,600 (short-term entry reference), $61,000-$60,500 (strong support/bull-bear divide), $59,700 (stop-loss reference)

• Resistance: $64,000-$65,000 (first resistance zone), $65,500, $68,000 (mid-term bull-bear divide)

Trading Strategy
• Short-term Long: Enter lightly if it stabilizes within the $62,500-$63,000 range on a pullback, with a stop-loss below $61,800 and targets at $64,000 and $65,000.

• Short-term Short: If it faces resistance in the $64,500-$65,000 range during a rebound, set up a short position, with a stop-loss above $65,800 and targets at $63,000 and $62,000.

• Mid-term Thought: Do not confirm a trend reversal until it effectively stands above $68,000; if it rebounds above $65,000, consider gradually reducing spot positions, and plan to gradually buy back if it pulls back near $60,000.

2. ETH (Ethereum)
Technical Aspect: The performance is weaker than BTC, continuously pressured by the 50-day moving average (approximately $1,803), with insufficient volume and weak rebound momentum, generally following BTC's volatility but with lower elasticity.

Key Levels
• Support: $1,750 (short-term support), $1,720-$1,700 (strong support zone), $1,650 (mid-term defense)

• Resistance: $1,800-$1,810 (first pressure), $1,836, $1,900

Trading Strategy
• Short-term Short (main strategy): Set up a short position if it faces pressure in the $1,790-$1,810 range during a rebound, with a stop-loss above $1,840 and targets at $1,750 and $1,720.

• Short-term Long (auxiliary): Lightly enter on a rebound stabilization in the $1,710-$1,720 range, with a stop-loss below $1,690 and targets at $1,770 and $1,800.

• Suggest maintaining a position lower than BTC as ETH lacks independent catalysts and should primarily follow market trends.

3. SOL (Solana)
Technical Aspect: After previously rising to $82.75, bullish momentum has weakened. After continuous pullbacks, it has entered the oversold area at the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands, with short-term moving averages turning downward and maintaining a range-bound volatility pattern, with larger fluctuations than mainstream coins.

Key Levels
• Support: $78.6-$79.0 (short-term support), $76-$77, $72-$73 (strong support zone)
• Resistance: $80.8-$81.3 (first pressure), $82.75 (previous high), $86

Trading Strategy
• Short-term Long: If it stabilizes on a pullback in the $78.5-$79.0 range, enter lightly for long, with a stop-loss below $78 and targets at $80.5 and $81.5.

• Short-term Short: If it encounters resistance in the $81.0-$81.5 range during a rebound, set up a short position, with a stop-loss above $82.5 and targets at $79.5 and $78.5.

• Treat it overall with a range-bound volatility approach, and only follow the trend after breaking the previous highs or strong support.
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