Yesterday, Bitcoin officially entered a daily-level adjustment phase, and the overall pullback range belongs to a normal correction range, which has not damaged the current large-scale structure. Although the daily line is still at a relatively high position, the adjustment of the 12-hour (half-day) cycle has not yet ended, and the short term still needs time to complete the chip exchange.

From the cycle perspective, the short cycles below 12 hours have basically completed the adjustment, re-entering the low area, while the daily line has formed a long lower shadow, which also conforms to the common characteristics of holding phases in the weekly and monthly lines, indicating that there is actively capital picking up each drop, and the overall market still maintains the rhythm of bottoming and repairing.

However, the current external environment remains complex. The geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and U.S.-Iran relations continue to repeat, and the uncertainty in news still may amplify market fluctuations, disturbing the short-term trends. Therefore, the recent market probability is still mainly fluctuating back and forth, rather than directly starting a unilateral trend.

From a medium to long-term perspective, the bottom logic of the weekly and monthly lines has not changed. After a long period of adjustment, the market has gradually entered a value layout area, but a real rise still requires more capital cooperation to confirm.

The operational thoughts remain unchanged:

• BTC falling to around $60,000, prioritize attention on low absorption opportunities;

• ETH falling below $1,600, still an important area for medium-term layout;

• Currently, BTC is running around $62,500 and ETH above $1,750, which is more suitable for waiting to short after a rebound at higher positions, avoid blindly chasing up.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: Intraday rebound is biased to the downside, amplify high sell low buy in the cycle.

The current cycle continues to differentiate:

• 1 hour, 2 hours, 12 hours are still in the adjustment phase;

• 4 hours, 6 hours, 8 hours have gradually entered the bottom area, with the possibility of strengthening again.

In today's early session, the price once again hit the 2-hour pressure level but failed to break effectively, followed by a quick pullback, indicating that the selling pressure above remains evident, and the shorts hold some advantage in the short term.

Currently, the K-line rhythm is relatively chaotic, and the market regularity is decreasing, making it easy to experience rapid surges and quick pullbacks in wide fluctuations. Therefore, short-term trading is more suitable for high selling low buying around key support and pressure, rather than blindly chasing ups and selling downs.

Overall, before the daily line adjustment ends, the market will still maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern. Patiently wait for a larger cycle to form resonance before following the trend, the probability of success will be higher.

Support attention: 61,000-61,300, 60,000-60,500

Pressure attention: 63,100-63,500, 64,000-64,600

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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】, representing only personal views. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice; please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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