The current market is in a repricing phase driven by multiple macro catalytic factors. Since the beginning of this year, the S&P 500 index has increased by 9%, gold has fallen by 6%, and Bitcoin has decreased by 31%, showing a clear divergence among these three traditionally correlated asset classes. Factors such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and AI infrastructure investment have successively become the dominant narratives in the market, continuously altering the pricing logic of risk assets.

Currently, asset performance is no longer determined by a single factor but is continuously repriced around new catalysts at different stages. From the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance to the escalation of the Iran conflict, and then to the surge in AI infrastructure investment.

The Federal Reserve and War Dominate the Market: Liquidity Expectations Suppress Risk Assets

Since the beginning of the year, the biggest change in the market has come from the reversal of Federal Reserve policy expectations. After Trump proposed to nominate Kevin Warsh, the market began to reassess a more hawkish monetary policy, completely reversing the three interest rate cut expectations for the year. Subsequently, the June FOMC meeting further confirmed the hawkish stance, putting continued pressure on liquidity-sensitive assets like gold and Bitcoin.

At the same time, the United States and Israel launched military strikes against Iran, causing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising oil prices, and a stock market pullback. Gold also saw a decline as the market believed that Middle Eastern central banks might prioritize funds for reconstruction financing rather than continue accumulating gold; Bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000 under significant liquidation pressure, breaking its previous performance pattern during geopolitical conflicts.

The AI Narrative Takes Over the Market: From Infrastructure Frenzy to Slowing Trade Momentum

As tensions eased, the market quickly shifted its focus to AI infrastructure development. NVIDIA announced a $2 billion investment in Marvell Technology, while Anthropic's annual recurring revenue (ARR) exceeded $30 billion, surpassing OpenAI's previously disclosed $20 billion ARR, propelling related Nasdaq indices from 23,200 points to 30,500 points, making AI the new main line of the market.

However, entering June, AI trade momentum began to weaken. "Tokenmaxxing" gradually receded, and companies started paying more attention to token usage costs. Chinese open-source models accelerated entry into the market, OpenAI postponed its IPO to 2027, and Meta planned to sell off excess AI computing power, leading the market to reevaluate AI investment returns. Meanwhile, the U.S. May CPI rose from 3.3% to 3.8%, exceeding market expectations, while Bitcoin ETFs shifted to significant net selling, reducing their holdings by $9 billion; Bitcoin's price dropped from $82,000 back to around $63,000, once again highlighting its high sensitivity to inflation and Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Overall, the market has experienced a shift among three core catalytic factors: Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical situations, and the AI narrative, leading to a clear divergence in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. Looking ahead, we believe that the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance is likely to gradually reverse after summer, gold has already entered a technically oversold area, and Bitcoin is nearing its cyclical bottom target range of $50,000 to $55,000. As the September FOMC approaches, AI usage demand rebounds, and inflation expectations cool, gold, Bitcoin, and AI-related trades are expected to regain upward momentum.

The above opinions are from BIT on Target, Contact us to obtain the complete BIT on Target report.

Disclaimer: The market involves risks, and investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of individual circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.

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