1. July 11 Today's Core News

1. Macro Federal Reserve & Policy

1. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting were hawkish, and there remains a possibility of interest rate hikes in September. The dollar stays high, suppressing upward movement in crypto assets in the medium to long term.

2. The U.S. CLARITY Act received public support from the CFTC chairman. The implementation of this bill will delineate the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, which is beneficial for institutional funds entering the market in the long term, but there is currently no substantial positive catalyst in the short term.

3. The U.S. bill banning the Federal Reserve from issuing a CBDC has officially taken effect, with the ban lasting until 2030, eliminating long-term concerns about central bank digital currencies diverting funds.

4. The Federal Reserve has suspended the approval of Tier 3 main accounts for crypto institutions until the end of 2026, slowing down the integration pace of traditional finance in crypto payment channels.

2. On-chain Capital Dynamics in the Industry

1. The total global cryptocurrency market capitalization is $2.28 trillion, with a 24-hour increase of 1.2%. BTC accounts for 56.4% of the market capitalization, with capital clustering in mainstream coins and significant fragmentation among altcoins.

2. MicroStrategy has increased its holdings by 1,587 BTC in the last 24 hours while selling 3,588 BTC to pay dividends, indicating increasing divergence in capital between bulls and bears.

3. A large transfer of 8,700 ETH into Coinbase’s institutional account continues, with institutions accumulating ETH at lower prices, showing strong support below.

4. The overall market has balanced long and short liquidations over the past 24 hours, with no large-scale liquidations. The market sentiment is one of caution, with a slight decline in trading volume.

3. Market Sentiment

The Fear and Greed Index has risen to 32, still within the fear range. The rebound is merely a technical correction from oversold conditions, without forming a trend reversal signal.

II. Overall Market Situation

Currently, BTC stands firmly around 64,000, fluctuating, while ETH slightly rises in sync. SOL is weaker than the market, showing a slight correction; all daily-level assets are under pressure from medium to long-term moving averages, indicating a corrective consolidation after a decline.
Main operating thought: High sell and low buy within the range, do not chase peaks, adjust strategy after breaking key levels, and strictly set stop losses.

III. BTC Bitcoin
Technical Analysis
In the short term, the 4-hour moving averages are bullishly aligned, with MACD red bars slightly contracting. The 1-hour RSI is nearing overbought territory, and upward selling pressure is increasing; the long-term daily moving averages are sloping downward, with the prevailing trend still bearish.

Key Support/Resistance
• Short-term Support: 63,000-63,300 (strong intraday support), 62,500 (defensive lifeline)
• Short-term Resistance: 64,600-65,000 (first heavy resistance area), 65,500 (mid-term watershed)

Trading Strategy

1. Short-term Long Position (Stable Low Buy)
Entry Range: Stabilize and go long at 63,000-63,400
Stop Loss: Below 62,400
Take Profit: 64,400 → 64,900

2. Short-term Short Position (Short on Rebound Resistance)
Entry Range: Test short under pressure at 64,600-65,000
Stop Loss: Above 65,600
Take Profit: 63,600 → 63,100

IV. ETH Ethereum
Technical Analysis
Completely linked to BTC, but the independent market is weak, with psychological strong resistance forming at the 1,800 level. The 4-hour upward momentum is continuously diminishing, and selling pressure is concentrated in the 1,795-1,810 range.

Key Support/Resistance
• Short-term Support: 1,740-1,750, 1,710 (strong support)
• Short-term Resistance: 1,795-1,810, 1,830

Trading Strategy

1. Short-term Long Position
Entry Range: Bounce and stabilize at 1,740-1,750 for long
Stop Loss: Below 1,705
Take Profit: 1,790 → 1,805

2. Short-term Short Position
Entry Range: Short under pressure at 1,795-1,810
Stop Loss: Above 1,840
Take Profit: 1,755 → 1,735

V. SOL Solana
Technical Analysis
Volatility is much greater than BTC/ETH, with short-term fluctuations around the 20/50-day moving average convergence point, facing long-term pressure at $80. The transaction heat of on-chain memes is cooling, and capital outflow is evident.

Key Support/Resistance
• Short-term Support: 76.0-76.8, 73.5 (strong support)
• Short-term Resistance: 79.5-80.5, 82.8

Trading Strategy

1. Short-term Long Position
Entry Range: Stabilize for low buys at 76.0-76.8
Stop Loss: Below 73.8
Take Profit: 79.2 → 80.2

2. Short-term Short Position
Entry Range: Short under pressure at 79.8-80.5
Stop Loss: Above 83
Take Profit: 77.2 → 76.2

VI. General Operating Risk Control Reminders
1. In a volatile market, avoid heavy positions and high leverage; no single currency position should exceed 20% of total capital;
2. All trades must have stop losses set; frequent price spikes make trading without stop losses highly prone to significant losses;
3. If there is a volume breakout above resistance or below support, abandon the original range strategy and observe in the direction of the trend;
4. Market liquidity tends to be weaker on weekends, and short-term fluctuations are prone to price spikes, so avoid frequent trading.
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