At the end of the article on July 17, a reader left a message:

“What indicators are there for certainty? Many people have heavily invested in what they believe to be certain, yet they still haven't made money.”

I have thought about this question for a long time, and despite having read many articles by famous personalities and many well-known books, I have never found a convincing answer.

Until I read Munger's book and Duan Yongping's Q&A record.

Munger's book discusses a great method for thinking about problems: reverse thinking.

Duan Yongping's Q&A record specifically uses Munger's method to judge whether a person truly understands the investment they are making.

In this article, I will use the above method to analyze how I judge whether my heavy investments are reliable.

Many times, positive thinking about problems does not easily lead to answers, but reverse thinking can yield surprisingly effective results, and it is much easier to arrive at conclusions.

Specifically addressing the above question, we can rephrase it as:

How to judge whether one’s heavy investments are unreliable or worthy of doubt.

Below are some obvious signs that can prove my heavy investments are very questionable:

Firstly, you are using funds that will affect your life, or even leverage and borrowing to make heavy investments.

Secondly, you originally did not plan to make a heavy investment in a particular asset, but merely because many people online have heavily invested in that asset, you impulsively thought it was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and jumped in.

Thirdly, you originally did not plan to make a heavy investment in a particular asset, but simply because its price suddenly skyrocketed in a short period or its "narrative" suddenly surged, you couldn’t resist and jumped in.

Fourthly, after heavily investing in an asset, you constantly think about checking the price and are concerned about its fluctuations.

Fifthly, after heavily investing in an asset, you go to various forums to leave messages asking if others also have a positive view of this asset.

Sixthly, after heavily investing in an asset, you go to various forums to leave messages desperately telling everyone that this asset is great.

Seventhly, after heavily investing in an asset, you feel anxious whenever you see an article denying its value, let alone be able to reasonably refute the arguments made in the article.

Eighthly, after heavily investing in an asset, you often wake up at night, feeling suddenly distressed, and can’t help but revisit the opinions of those big influencers who once favored this asset to see if they still do.

Ninthly, if the price of your heavily invested asset drops, you immediately lose your composure and wonder if you should sell it.

Tenthly, if the price of your heavily invested asset drops, you quickly go online to look for various articles, especially those by people you trust, to see if they still have a positive outlook on the asset.

Eleventhly, if the price of your heavily invested asset drops, you promptly go online to see whether more people are still holding the asset or have sold it, to gauge which side is stronger.

Twelfthly, if your heavily invested asset is suddenly sold off by a major "figure," and that major "figure" provides a bunch of reasons for the sell-off, after reading those reasons, you find yourself with no counterarguments.

Thirteenthly, if your heavily invested asset suddenly becomes the subject of rampant rumors regarding troubles, at that moment you do not take the time to carefully gather information to verify the truth of the matter to see if your initial reasons for investing have changed, but rather either look for information to comfort yourself that the trouble does not exist or seek information on when to sell quickly.

Some of the above are derived from Duan Yongping’s Q&A record, while others are my own summaries.

That's all I could think of for now; I will continue to add more as I think of them.

If a lucky gambler encounters those signs of being "unreliable," it may also lead them to hit it big, but such cases are beyond the scope of my discussion.

I can only say that, for ordinary people who rely on average luck, generally speaking, as long as they strike any of the signs mentioned above, they should seriously examine their heavy investments and ask themselves whether they are gambling or truly understand what they are heavily invested in.

Of course, this "unreliable" does not refer to the unreliability of the asset itself, but rather to the behavior of heavily investing in that asset, which deserves careful scrutiny:

Either the asset is good, but you do not actually understand its value, so ultimately, you cannot hold on;

Or there is a problem with the asset itself, and you did not think it through when you made the heavy investment;

Or you initially invested heavily purely as a gamble, and you do not actually know whether the asset is good or not.

In short, such heavy investments generally do not yield ideal outcomes, or as the comment states, you won't make money:

In the best scenario, perhaps you can earn a small profit;

In general cases, breaking even would be good;

In severe cases, losses and even substantial losses are very possible.

But if none of the above signs are present, does that mean your heavy investment is very reliable?

Of course not; there must be more and more precise signs that I have not discovered or do not know about, and hitting those signs may also indicate that the behavior of heavy investment is worthy of doubt.

It's like humanity’s quest for truth; we can never find absolute truth, but we can always strive to approach absolute truth infinitely—doesn’t the progress of human society rely on this spirit of constant exploration?

Similarly, we may never find absolute and complete standards for judging whether heavy investments are reliable, but we can work hard to approach that standard—this is also the fundamental drive that promotes our continuous progress and improvement.

Therefore, start by looking at these standards, use these standards to re-examine your questionable heavy investments, and even deal with them.

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