According to the latest report by Blockworks researcher Luke Leasure, Bitcoin may be at or near the low point of this cycle, as several high time frame indicators have coincidentally fallen into a historically rare range, according to a single source. This judgment is not merely theoretical; whale traders have recently chosen to close short positions and quickly switch to long positions, while still clearly emphasizing their bullish stance in the medium to long term, believing that the opportunities to see Bitcoin below $60,000 in the future will become increasingly rare, according to a single source. However, these suspected bottom signals from high time frames and large positions have coincidentally emerged at a time when the macro environment is becoming increasingly oppressive: the United States has implemented new tariff arrangements since July 24, with rates covering about 60 economies in the range of approximately 10%-12.5%, while Trump has publicly signaled the possibility of resuming large-scale military action against Iran. Tech stocks have corrected, U.S. stock indices have declined, and international oil prices have risen, putting overall risk assets under pressure, according to a single source. Bitcoin is pushed to a contradictory convergence point—on one hand, high time frame indicators and whale positions suggest clues of a cyclical bottom, while on the other hand, tariffs and geopolitical tensions present headwinds. The market is using price and position fluctuations to answer whether this is indeed the bottom of this cycle.
Extended Bear Market and Price Retracement: Bitcoin Drops by Half
If we look solely at the price, Bitcoin has delivered a striking performance: it has retraced approximately 50% from its historical high, effectively wiping out half of the gains accumulated during the last boom period. According to a single source, this downtrend has persisted for over 40 weeks since it began, approaching a third of a natural year cycle. This is not the kind of emotional fluctuation that bottoms out in a few weeks but rather a deliberately prolonged war of attrition in terms of time, forcing chips to continuously change hands amid low-level fluctuations. Investor patience for this cycle has also been gradually squeezed out.
More notably, Bitcoin is not falling in a vacuum but is particularly “lagging behind” in comparison to traditional assets. According to a single source, this month it recorded the most severe oversold reading relative to Nasdaq in history and had also reached an oversold record relative to gold in February of this year—while tech stocks and precious metals remain relatively strong, Bitcoin has repeatedly dipped below both benchmark asset curves. When we put together the prolonged fluctuation of over 40 weeks, the approximately 50% price retracement, and the extreme overselling relative to Nasdaq and gold, one fact becomes clear: the market has paid a considerable time cost and price drop cost for this cycle, making the discussion of cyclical bottoms under both “time + amplitude” dimensions unavoidable.
On-chain Cost Zones: Defense at 53k and 50-60k
If the time and price retracement outline the “outer contour” of this cycle, then the on-chain cost structure represents where the bottom chips truly stand in the “internal organs.” According to a single source, Bitcoin's current realized price is approximately $53,000. This metric is not a spot price at a given time but the weighted average transaction price of all on-chain holders, representing the overall cost basis of the market. In other words, around $53,000 is the tipping point where the vast majority of chips have turned from profit to loss. Once the current price remains below this line, it means the pressure of “overall unrealized losses” is accumulating, and it also means that with every further $100 drop, more historical buying points will be hit.
Intersecting with the holders’ costs is the miners' survival line. According to a single source, whale traders believe the current mainstream mining costs are concentrated in the $50,000 to $60,000 range, creating a multi-layered cost “moat” when combined with the $53,000 realized price: above is the average cost line for holders, below is the production cost range supported by computational power and electricity costs, and between them is a defense range that is difficult to break below yet has been repeatedly tested. Last month, the price once dipped to about $58,000 but was quickly pulled back by buying pressure, as the breaking point coincided with the miners' cost range, in fact, it was a test of this moat—ultimately, the water level that briefly submerged the wall retreated quickly, indicating that at the $50,000-60,000 range, the resonance between on-chain holders and the production end costs still provided effective support for the current price.
Whales Shift from Short to Long: Betting on No More Sightings Below 60,000
As the price is repeatedly polished within the $50,000-60,000 range, someone must make a directional choice at the defense zone. Whale traders have completed a complete position reversal during this phase: first, they closed all short positions, ending bets on breaking below the cost zone, and then quickly rebuilt long positions in a nearby area, betting that this zone will hold and that it will be increasingly difficult to break down in the future. In their words, the medium to long-term perspective has never changed—always bullish on Bitcoin—this adjustment merely shifted their previously more defensive short hedge into an active embrace of rebound and new upward space. It is important to emphasize that this trader's specific position size and past trading records have not been publicly disclosed; we can only regard this series of “first close shorts then open longs” actions as a public stance of an individual large holder rather than a quantifiable group behavior.
Near the possible cyclical low described by Luke Leasure, on one side is the realized price of about $53,000 and the miners' costs concentrated in the $50,000-60,000 defense line, while on the other side is the subjective judgment that “it will become harder to see below $60,000 again in the future.” This whale has chosen to bind the two together through their positions. They have not provided an exact timeline but have drawn an implicit dividing line from a medium to long-term perspective: viewing the currently repeatedly tested cost zone as the last genuinely “discounted area” in this cycle, and the subsequent price evolution is more imagined as fluctuating and expanding above the cost zone. From the perspective of signals, this is merely one voice, but it resonates narratively with on-chain costs, defense buying, and high time frame oversold readings—at this moment, their action of flipping from short to long is viewed more as a public stance on the current cost range rather than a short-term bet on the next candlestick.
Tariffs and the Shadow of War Pressing on Bitcoin
However, standing on the side of the cost zone does not mean one can ignore the macro shadows above. The U.S. started new tariff arrangements on July 24, with rates generally falling in the range of 10%-12.5%, covering about 60 economies, while Trump has publicly stated that he is seriously considering resuming large-scale military action against Iran. This combination of “tariffs plus war expectations” directly impacts global risk appetite: tech stock corrections drag U.S. indices lower, while international oil prices rise amid heightened tensions. In the same picture, overall risk assets face pressure, and the environment Bitcoin finds itself in is naturally leaning towards tension and caution.
On one side is the realized price of about $53,000, mainstream mining costs concentrated in the $50,000-60,000 range, and whales beginning to publicly position themselves near the cost zone, while multiple high time frame signals point towards “approaching the cyclical bottom”; on the other side, the dissemination of tariffs and geopolitical conflict expectations pull down the valuations and sentiments of global risk assets. At this intersection, the so-called “bottom” looks more like a time interval that can be extended rather than a singular price reversal moment. Whether Bitcoin has indeed reached the low point of this cycle depends on whether on-chain signals can hold up amid persistent macro headwinds, rather than just appearing sporadically in brief technical overselling.
What to Watch for After Rare Bottom Signal Resonance
Multiple high time frame indicators have rarely resonated, the realized price and mining costs are firmly stuck in the $50,000-60,000 line, and whales turning from shorts to going long with the public statement “it will become harder to see below $60,000” all together form a strong candidate range for this cycle's bottom. However, Luke Leasure only provided the direction of “rare readings” without disclosing specific indicators. Although the on-chain cost band overlaps with last month’s low point of about $58,000, it is still under the headwinds of U.S. tariff dissemination, exacerbating geopolitical tensions, and weakening tech stocks and risk assets. This suggests that if a bottom has emerged, it is likely a wide range that is continuously “tested” by macro noise rather than a clean reversal at a singular price point. What is genuinely worth paying close attention to next are the changes of three lines: first, whether the amplitude of unrealized losses between the realized price and spot price narrows, and whether the miners' cost band continues to act as price support; second, how tariff policies spread, whether the situation in Iran escalates, and whether the risk appetite of U.S. stocks further cools, thereby changing the macro pricing environment for crypto assets; third, whether whales like “first set ten big targets” maintain long positions and continue to accumulate near the cost band rather than frequently flipping shorts, which will together determine whether this series of rare bottom signals will evolve into a solid bottoming period or be entirely disrupted by macro winds in a fleeting technical resonance.
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