1. Today's Core News Summary

1. Macroeconomic Geopolitics: Oil prices soar + interest rate cut expectations cool, risk assets face pressure
The expectation of escalating Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts has heightened, leading to a rapid increase in international oil prices within the day. Market concerns about secondary inflation have reignited, resulting in rising US Treasury yields and a rebound in the US dollar index. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September has significantly declined, with even signs of an increasing expectation of rate hikes. Global risk assets have broadly declined, and the cryptocurrency market has weakened in sync, with mainstream coins correcting across the board.

2. Regulation and Industry: Intensified domestic regulations + established exchanges announce shutdowns
Several illegal crypto media accounts have been permanently shut down in Shenzhen recently, as domestic regulation continues to maintain a high-pressure stance. Established crypto exchange BitMEX announced that it will officially cease operations on September 23, immediately closing new user registrations and charging monthly management fees on unwithdrawn assets. At the global level, multiple countries including Japan, South Korea, and Nigeria continue to improve their crypto regulatory frameworks, accelerating the compliance process in the industry.

3. Capital Market: Weekly ETF inflows reach a stage high, but short-term buying power is weak
In the past week, US Bitcoin spot ETFs saw net inflows of nearly $1 billion, marking a new high for single-week inflows in three months, with ongoing institutional demand for long-term allocations. However, day trading spot buying has significantly weakened, short positions in the derivatives market have increased, and in the last 24 hours, the market’s long liquidation scale surpassed shorts, terminating the short squeeze. The crypto fear and greed index has fallen to 28, returning the market to the "fear" zone, with cautious sentiment significantly warming.

4. Sector Performance: Mainstream coins decline, DeFi sector strengthens against the trend
The total market capitalization of the global crypto market has fallen back to $2.3 trillion, with a 24-hour drop of approximately 1.3%, and mainstream coins generally corrected. The DeFi sector rose against the trend by 9.8%, becoming one of the few bright spots of the day; Polkadot and XRP ecosystem coins have shown relative resilience, while niche altcoins are experiencing increased differentiation, leading to weak overall profitability.


2. Daily Strategy and Entry Points for Mainstream Coins
The following is a summary of technical analysis and market viewpoints, intended for discussion and reference only, not constituting any trading basis.
1. Bitcoin (BTC)

Market Position: Daily-level continuous rebound ends, the $65,000 level turns from support to resistance; 4-hour MACD forms a death cross, short-term bearish momentum is released, with around $64,000 being a key strong/weak boundary due to prior concentrated trading.

• Key Support:
◦ First support: $64,200 – $64,300 (short-term support level for the day)
◦ Strong support: $63,800 – $64,000 (the dividing line between bulls and bears; a break below indicates a weakening short-term trend)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First resistance: $65,300 – $65,500 (day's resistance on rebound)
◦ Strong resistance: $65,800 – $66,000 (previous platform top; if held, the correction ends)

• Daily Reference Thoughts:
◦ Short positions can be taken lightly if a rebound reaches the $65,200–$65,400 range and faces resistance, with stop-loss placed above $65,900
◦ If a drop to the $64,000–$64,200 range shows signs of reversal, consider going long, with stop-loss placed below $63,500

◦ If it effectively breaks $63,800, it is recommended to mainly observe and not blindly bottom-fish.

2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market Position: Leading mainstream coins in terms of adjustment magnitude, with the key support of $1,900 breached, and short-term rebound structure damaged; the price has dropped to near the lower Bollinger Band on the 4-hour level, with $1,870 as short-term moving average support. A further drop below will open up downward space.

• Key Support:
◦ First support: $1,870 – $1,880 (day's short-term defensive level)
◦ Strong support: $1,840 – $1,850 (previous range support, core support for deeper corrections)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First resistance: $1,900 – $1,910 (pressure area post-break)
◦ Strong resistance: $1,930 – $1,945 (day's dividing line between bulls and bears; stability here indicates a return to strength)

• Daily Reference Thoughts:

◦ Short positions can be taken lightly if a rebound reaches the $1,895–$1,905 range and faces resistance, with stop-loss placed above $1,935

◦ If stabilizing occurs in the $1,845–$1,855 range, consider going long, with stop-loss placed below $1,820

◦ If a volume drop below $1,840 occurs, it is advisable to target around $1,800.

3. Solana (SOL)
Market Position: Following the broader market correction, failing to hold the upper edge of the $77 range, returning to the $75-$77 oscillation box; trading volume has slightly increased today but bears are dominating, with $75 serving as a short-term strong/weak dividing line. A break below will further lower the range's center of gravity.

• Key Support:
◦ First support: $75.0 – $75.3 (day's short-term support level)
◦ Strong support: $74.0 – $74.3 (lower edge of the box; a break below indicates a short-term weakening)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First resistance: $76.5 – $76.8 (day's resistance on rebound)
◦ Strong resistance: $77.5 – $78.0 (upper edge of the box; a break above indicates a return to a rebound trend)

• Daily Reference Thoughts:
◦ Short positions can be taken lightly if a rebound reaches the $76.3–$76.7 range and faces resistance, with stop-loss placed above $77.8
◦ If a drop down to the $74.8–$75.2 range supports a reversal, consider going long, with stop-loss placed below $73.8

◦ If it effectively breaks below $74, it is advised to avoid as the lower space will open up towards around $72.
Operational Reminders
1. The geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, and market fluctuations can easily amplify; it is recommended to trade with light positions and strict stop-losses, controlling each position to lower levels.
2. Core variables to observe today: trends in international oil prices, performance of tech stocks after US market opening, and real-time capital flows of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
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