On July 24, 2026, when the "seven giants" of the US stock market recorded their worst single-day performance since April 2025 due to a sell-off in the AI sector, Bitcoin remained steady around $65,000, showing a rare divergence from high-valuation tech stocks. On the surface, it seems resilient, but the deeper contradiction lies in the fact that the selling pressure has significantly released, yet the buying force has not genuinely re-engaged. According to CryptoQuant data, the 30-day moving average of realized losses for Bitcoin surged to around $1.37 billion in February this year, a peak that was about 19% higher than the previous cycle in 2022, indicating a more aggressive selling scale during the current adjustment period; this indicator has now dropped to about $597 million, a decline of approximately 56.5%, showing that active stop-loss and panic selling have clearly tapered off. However, despite the easing of selling pressure, incremental buying has not formed a trend of return. Morgan Stanley chose to increase its holdings at this position by adding 57.319 BTC through its spot Bitcoin ETF, raising its total holdings to 6,039 BTC, with a corresponding market value exceeding $393 million, as a traditional giant increased its positions against the tide amid market turbulence. The on-chain whale “Set 10 Major Goals” first closed short positions before rebuilding long positions, emphasizing that the $60,000 level serves as both a boundary for the last bull market and current mining cost support, openly stating the target price of $100,000 around March next year. Institutions and whales have already bet on the future during the price correction, but in the absence of retail investors and broader funds following suit, Bitcoin remains locked in a stalemate of "reduced selling pressure but insufficient buying."

Morgan Stanley Increases Holdings, Bitcoin Stabilizes Amid AI Crash

During the same round of adjustment when on-chain whales decided to go long above $60,000, traditional institutions did not exit the market. Morgan Stanley counterintuitively bought 57.319 BTC through its spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT), crossing the threshold of 6,000 BTC for the first time and reaching 6,039 BTC, corresponding to a market value of about $393 million. The timing of this increase was not during a euphoric breakout window but after Bitcoin fell back to around $58,000 last month and then fluctuated between $60,000 and $65,000, still above the mainstream mining cost zone yet with bullish confidence not fully restored. Morgan Stanley chose to continue adding through the ETF rather than reducing positions or waiting, which represents a bet that Bitcoin will serve a role as an asset allocation tool in the medium to long term, balanced between cost support and cooled selling pressure.

More significantly, this increase occurred during the window when the seven giants of the US stock market faced heavy sell-offs in AI-related sectors, recording the worst single-day performance since April 2025. Overvalued tech stocks experienced severe corrections within a day, while Bitcoin fluctuated slightly around $65,000 without experiencing a similar single-day crash. As stock market risks heated up, institutions did not view Bitcoin as a high-volatility asset needing immediate stop-loss measures; rather, through MSBT, they continued to increase allocations, seeing it as an asset capable of performing some risk hedging and diversification functions in a macro portfolio. The on-chain whales reversed direction, and Morgan Stanley made counter-cyclical purchases in the secondary market, together reinforcing a narrative: Bitcoin's image of pressure resistance is being reshaped during the current adjustment period, and traditional financial capital has begun to view it as a macro allocation target that needs to be positioned for the long term.

Whales Close Shorts and Go Long: $60,000 Becomes Defense Zone

During the same period when Morgan Stanley chose to increase its position contrary to the trend, the whale account "Set 10 Major Goals" completed a directional shift on-chain: it publicly stated that it has fully closed previously bearish Bitcoin short positions and began to re-establish long positions, reallocating chips back to the bullish side. Unlike purely emotional statements, this whale provided specific logic—around $60,000 is the key boundary area of the previous Bitcoin bull market, and he sees this price point as a "midline" structurally for the medium to long term. Only after breaking above it did the market truly enter the previous high-level range, indicating that currently holding above $60,000 during the correction means the main trend has not been broken in his framework.

Supporting this logic is his emphasis on the cost range: mainstream Bitcoin mining costs are generally concentrated between $50,000 and $60,000, running above this range implies that miners are still in a relatively safe profit zone, and this cost band is naturally viewed as a defense area for prices. Last month, Bitcoin dipped to around $58,000 during the pullback but quickly regained its footing and stood back above $60,000, providing the latest practical validation for this defense zone's support strength. Based on this, "Set 10 Major Goals" further expressed that Bitcoin is expected to challenge the $100,000 mark around March next year; while this judgment is not a guaranteed fact, it clearly illustrates the whale's risk preference, indicating that the area around $60,000 is gradually evolving from a historical boundary into a defense zone composed of mining costs and bullish whale positions.

Realized Losses Drop by 60%: Selling Pressure Retreats, Buying Has Not Followed

Above the "defensive zone at $60,000" woven together by mining costs and whale bulls, the on-chain data tells a story that is not only optimistic. According to the latest assessment by CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., the peak scale of realized losses for Bitcoin in this cycle was about 19% higher than the 2022 cycle, indicating that during the downturn in February of this year, the chips that were sold in panic suffered even greater losses and concentrated selling pressure. Specifically, in terms of pace, in February 2026, the 30-day moving average of realized losses for Bitcoin peaked at around $1.37 billion, reaching the high range of this cycle, driven by a large volume of funds that forced themselves to realize losses after buying at high positions during the adjustment, laying a shadow for the price fluctuations in the following months.

However, entering the current moment, this "realized loss wave" has significantly receded. According to CryptoQuant data, the current 30-day moving average of realized losses is about $597 million, which is a decrease of approximately 56.5% from the peak in February, corresponding to the market showing a clear reduction in chips willing to cut losses and exit in the $60,000 to $65,000 range, and the active selling pressure on-chain is no longer at a high level. Nevertheless, Axel Adler Jr.’s conclusion does not turn optimistic because he believes that although selling pressure has decreased, the demand side has not synchronized in recovery, and there is still no sign of sustained incremental buying. This explains why, around $65,000, Bitcoin's price remains more caught in a tug-of-war between cost support and institutional/whale counter-trend accumulation rather than being pushed into a completely different price range by new funds; the current market resembles a repair phase after significant selling pressure and has not yet entered a new clear main rising segment.

After Resonating Between Institutions and Whales, Bullish Signals Are Still Unreliable

Morgan Stanley increased its holdings of 57.319 BTC through MSBT during the pullback phase, raising its total holdings to 6,039 BTC, corresponding to a market value exceeding $393 million, forming a distinct resonance with the whale account "Set 10 Major Goals" going long around the $50,000 to $60,000 cost range. On one side, traditional institutions chose to continue increasing positions as prices approached the upper bound of mainstream mining costs, while on the other side, a high-sensitivity large holder re-bet on bullish positions near $60,000, citing the last bull market boundary and publicly forecasting an optimistic outlook for challenging $100,000 around March next year. This bottom-up support of the cost range and top-down optimistic expectations has indeed restored some bullish sentiment in the $60,000 to $65,000 range, making the question of "whether anyone dares to buy after selling pressure peaks" no longer just an empty question.

However, from CryptoQuant's demand assessment, this resonance looks more like a small group of capable and confident players testing the waters, still lacking broad confirmation from on-chain indicators and trading activity: the peak of realized losses has passed, and selling pressure has significantly weakened, but there has not yet been enough new buying following through, keeping prices fluctuating in the $60,000 to $65,000 range, indicating a tug-of-war between supporting strength and wait-and-see sentiment, rather than a fully unfolded major upward movement. In this phase where "signals are not collectively recognized by the market," the subsequent clues are particularly crucial—whether the subscription trend for spot Bitcoin ETFs warms up, whether more large holders adjust their positions to net long in response, and whether on-chain activity can rise in synchrony with price stabilization; whether these three clues can turn positive sequentially will determine whether this counter-cyclical accumulation is just a temporary emotional repair or the true starting point for a new trend.

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