Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies is $2.22 trillion, with BTC accounting for 59%, at $1.3 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $309.6 billion, decreasing 0.06% over the past 7 days, with USDT accounting for 59.11%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have decreased with a few increasing, including: BTC up 2.93% over 7 days, ETH up 1.47% over 7 days, SOL down 0.84% over 7 days, HYPE down 3.29% over 7 days, and BEAT up 23.28% over 7 days.
Market Prediction (July 27 - August 2):
RSI index at 46.33 (neutral), Fear and Greed index at 27 (fear), Altcoin Season index at 52 (neutral).
BTC: $60,000 - $65,000 (predicted as mid-year bottom range).
ETH: $1,700 - $2,000 (technical outlook bearish).
SOL: $70 - $85 (technical outlook strong, but affected by the market).
HYPE: $48-$70 (facing significant unlocking selling pressure).
The cryptocurrency market is expected to be dominated by volatility and differentiation next week, with the market holding its breath waiting for the final signals from the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on July 28-29.
Risk Warning:
Federal Reserve FOMC meeting: uncertainty itself is a risk.
The legislative process of the Clarity Act is stalled, with policy dividends waning.
AI bubble and macro link risks; if AI stocks decline sharply, it may trigger a comprehensive sell-off in the cryptocurrency market.
Understanding Now
Trump Gives “Green Light” to the Bill: At the beginning of this week, reports indicated that President Trump agreed to key ethical provisions in the Clarity Act, clearing significant obstacles for this bill aimed at clarifying digital asset regulation boundaries. This positive news propelled Bitcoin to nearly $67,000, setting a new high in over a month, with related concept stocks surging significantly.
New Draft Includes Anti-Corruption “Hard Provisions”: Republican senators subsequently released an updated draft of the bill, which explicitly prohibits the President and federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, with violators facing fines of up to $250,000 per day. The market interprets this move as a direct restriction on the Trump family's prior cryptocurrency projects.
Voting Prospects Change Again: Despite the Senate Majority Leader's plan to quickly push for a vote before the August recess, strong opposition from Democrats regarding the enforcement mechanism in the bill, coupled with ethical concerns about Trump's over $1 billion in cryptocurrency income, make the required 60 votes for passage seem out of reach, cooling market optimism.
Market “Votes with its Feet”: As the probability of the bill passing fell to a low of 32% on the prediction market Polymarket, cryptocurrency-related stocks took a hit, with Coinbase (COIN) falling over 5.5%, Circle (CRCL) down 6.9%, and Bitcoin sliding to around $65,000.
Massive Bitcoin Outflow from Exchanges: On July 20, approximately $686 million worth of Bitcoin flowed out from major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase in a single day, marking the largest single-day net outflow since April. This “moving away from exchanges” behavior is typically viewed as a strong accumulation signal, reducing market selling pressure.
Institutional Funds “Return”: The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw sustained net inflows this week, breaking the outflow trend since June. Notably, a net inflow of $227 million occurred just on July 20, indicating improved institutional allocation sentiment.
Macro Headwinds Suppress Rebound: Bitcoin faced resistance around $67,000, closely related to geopolitical risks. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has caused oil prices to spike, reigniting inflation concerns and diminishing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut, thus suppressing the performance of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Market Cautious Before Federal Reserve Meeting: Prediction market data shows that traders believe there is a 93% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at the meeting on July 28-29. Until policy signals are clear, the market remains in a range-bound oscillation pattern, lacking momentum for unilateral breakthroughs.
Department of Justice Cracks Down on Fraud: The US Department of Justice announced this week that it has seized over $25 million in cryptocurrency linked to a cross-border investment scam targeting residents of the US and Canada. This action is part of America’s “Fraud Center Strike Operation,” with total recovered assets exceeding $800 million.
Alert on Stablecoin Regulation: The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) issued a report warning that the circulation of stablecoins is largely unaffected by traditional capital controls, which may undermine the effectiveness of various countries' monetary policies. This suggests that future global regulatory frameworks for stablecoins may tighten further.
Macroeconomics
As of July 23, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 18 was 187,000, the lowest since the week ending September 24, 2022. Expected was 212,000, with the previous value revised from 208,000 to 209,000.
On July 17, according to CME “FedWatch” data, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate unchanged in July is currently at 61.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point increase is at 38.8%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Malaysia Blockchain Week 2026 will be held on July 29-30 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
ULTRA Web3 Festival 2026 will be held on July 30-31 at The Arch Galeries in Kuala Lumpur. The summit, hosted by Ultra Production, will cover topics including Web3, traditional finance, artificial intelligence, real-world assets (RWA), and institutional capital.
Conviction 2026 will take place on August 14-15 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Coinfest Asia 2026 will be held on August 20-21 in Bali, Indonesia.
Important Events
On July 30 at 02:00, the US will announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision as of July 29 (upper limit).
On July 30 at 19:00, the UK will announce the central bank's interest rate decision as of July 30.
On July 30 at 20:30, the US will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25 (in thousands).
On July 30 at 20:30, the US will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for June.
The fifth round of creditor payouts from FTX will commence on July 31, with an expected allocation of $900 million.
The Chapter 93 Act in Minnesota, USA will take effect on August 1, 2026, allowing state banks and credit unions to provide virtual currency custodial services in a non-trust manner, including custody, control, or management of virtual currency and its private keys.
The Google Chrome Web Store will clearly list prediction markets as a prohibited category starting August 1, 2026, banning extensions that facilitate or support real money trading on prediction outcomes.
Project Progress
Sony Bank will issue dollar-denominated tokenized securities and open subscriptions on July 29.
The decentralized exchange Grvt’s token GRVT TGE has been postponed to July 30.
Bitcoin treasury company Strategy will present its financial results for Q2 2026 after the US market closes on July 30, Eastern Time (which is 4 AM Beijing Time on July 31), and will hold an online seminar at 5 PM (5 AM Beijing Time) that same afternoon to discuss the related performance.
The Cardano ecosystem lending platform Levvy will cease operations at the end of July.
SBI Group’s mining subsidiary SBI Crypto will close its Bitcoin mining pool services on July 31.
The derivatives exchange PINGU will permanently close on July 31.
The interface of the Sei ecosystem Perp DEX Oxium platform will shut down on August 1, with the team stating that users can still access and retrieve funds directly through smart contracts even after the front-end interface is closed.
Token Unlocking
Humanity (H) will unlock 260 million tokens on July 25, valued at approximately $16.11 million, accounting for 8.6% of the circulating supply.
Plasma (XPL) will unlock 88.89 million tokens on July 25, valued at approximately $7.4 million, accounting for 3.4% of the circulating supply.
Falcon Finance (FF) will unlock 102 million tokens on July 29, valued at approximately $6.18 million, accounting for 3.5% of the circulating supply.
Sui (SUI) will unlock 14.14 million tokens on August 1, valued at approximately $10.51 million, accounting for 0.34% of the circulating supply.
Ethena (ENA) will unlock 4,063 tokens on August 2, valued at approximately $3.72 million, accounting for 0.47% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through our “Weekly Insights” and “In-depth Reports”; leveraging our exclusive column Hotcoin Selection (AI + Expert dual screening) to identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Each week, our researchers also engage with you through live streams, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest under a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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