By around 2026, multiple industry and financial media reports indicate that the total market value of global stock markets has risen to approximately 137% of global GDP, nearing historical highs, with overall risk assets in a high valuation range. In this macro context, one side sees a continuation of the intensified narrative around AI in traditional markets, with ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood openly stating that Tesla and SpaceX are her top picks for AI-related stocks, further pushing up the expected premiums of related assets; on the other side, there is a cooling of upgrade signals in the crypto world and structural reorganization at the platform level: Galaxy's research director stated on X that the Bitcoin proposal BIP-110, based on the current growth rate, is expected to have a signal support rate far below the 55% mandatory activation threshold at the time of the activation block, and to be more than 51 percentage points below that threshold at activation, indicating that this upgrade proposal is encountering a "cold treatment" on the miner side; at the same time, Binance Square announced it would rectify signaling without positions and low-quality content, while BitMart planned to shut down all trading services starting August 26 and officially end operations on January 31 of the following year, illustrating how the strengthened governance of major platforms and the orderly exit of smaller platforms together outline how risk is being redistributed and repriced between the stock market and the crypto market in an era of high valuations.

Total Market Value of Stock Markets Soars to 137% of GDP: High-Risk Accumulation

According to several industry and financial media reports, by around 2026, the total market value of global stock markets has risen to approximately 137% of global GDP, nearing historical highs. The ratio of stock market total market value to GDP is often viewed by financial institutions as an indicator measuring the overall valuation of traditional capital markets: when this ratio is significantly above the long-term average, it often signals that stock prices have greatly front-loaded expectations for future profits and growth, with the “story” of the capital markets and the leverage layer continuously thickening, diverging from the actual value created by the real economy. At this stage, any revisions to growth assumptions, downturns in profit cycles, or reversals in interest rate expectations can be magnified through valuation compression in stock prices, leading to a natural increase in macro risk discussions.

In such a high-valuation environment, risk appetite and hedging needs may also see a rebalancing: part of the capital still chases growth and thematic opportunities in the traditional stock market, while another part tends to increase defensive exposure to cash, government bonds, or diversified assets, while assessing whether “non-traditional” allocations, including crypto assets, can help mitigate the valuation correction risks of a single market. As a result, crypto assets obtain a clearer reference in the macro narrative—they are no longer merely high-risk targets that fluctuate synchronously with the stock market, but are placed within the "global balance sheet." As the total market value of the stock market approaches historical highs and risk premiums may be repriced, their independent pricing logic and correlation with traditional assets become key variables for investors to observe and test.

AI Stock Narrative Heats Up: Tesla and SpaceX Receive Bets

In the context of the global stock market total market value nearing historical highs, risk appetite has not significantly receded; instead, it continues to warm up around AI-related sectors. ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood has clearly stated in public that Tesla and SpaceX are her top picks for AI-related stocks, viewing these two companies as core carriers to capture the new round of intelligent infrastructure and application dividends. Tesla's investments in autonomous driving and self-developed computing power platforms allow it to have attributes of consumer-facing AI applications while possessing infrastructure characteristics at the computing and data levels; SpaceX's layout through satellite internet and data transmission networks is interpreted by some institutions as an underlying pipeline for future large models and edge intelligence. With the strengthening of such viewpoints, recent market and media attention on AI themes, related publicly listed companies, and private enterprises has clearly increased, establishing the AI sector as an independent risk asset narrative in traditional capital markets.

For crypto assets, this round of AI stock narrative both constitutes competition and provides a coexistence space. Both are highly dependent on stories and cutting-edge technology, and in a phase where global stock market valuations are high and investors weigh marginal risk exposures, some capital and attention may shift from certain cryptocurrency sectors to AI publicly listed companies, which are easier to understand and have cash flow and regulatory frameworks. This means that the crypto market faces short-term pressure from the diversion of "narrative resources." However, from a longer cycle perspective, AI infrastructure stocks represent a centralized path of computing power and data networks, while crypto assets represent a decentralized path of value settlement and institutional design, suggesting there is complementary potential between the two in terms of technology stacks. The key lies in whether the crypto domain can reaffirm its independent pricing logic and risk compensation in the digital economy through clearer on-chain application scenarios, governance mechanism iterations, and fee structures, once the AI theme becomes the new mainline of the traditional stock market. This will become an important variable to observe the evolution of competition and co-existence between the two asset systems.

BIP-110 Signal Far Below Threshold: Bitcoin Upgrade Encounters Cold Reception

Within the Bitcoin network, the current on-chain signal performance of BIP-110 forms a stark contrast with the aforementioned traditional stock market, which is accelerating bets on new themes under high valuations. The director of research at Galaxy pointed out on X that, based on the current signal growth rate, the expected signal support rate for BIP-110 at the scheduled activation block will be far below the approximately 55% mandatory activation threshold, and more than 51 percentage points below that threshold. This indicates a significant gap from the required support level to "passively complete a protocol upgrade." It can be judged that current miners or broader network participants show clearly insufficient support for this upgrade, and the upgrade path itself is fraught with uncertainty.

While the signals are still in the collection and activation debate stage, this "more than 51 percentage points below the threshold" quantitative expectation is not just a technical detail; it reflects the reality of technical orientation and governance preferences within the Bitcoin ecosystem: on one hand, mainstream hashing power and nodes remain cautious or even indifferent towards new proposals, reflecting high threshold requirements for changing existing consensus rules; on the other hand, the vast disparity between the mandatory activation mechanism and actual signal support rates also reminds the market to incorporate the real level of on-chain support into the pricing logic when interpreting the Bitcoin upgrade story, rather than simply viewing each proposal as a technical benefit that is bound to be implemented.

Binance Rectifies Signaling and Strengthens Internal Security: Exchanges Self-Defense and Control

In the context of a cool reception towards Bitcoin upgrade signals, leading exchanges have begun tightening their internal systems from both content and security aspects. Binance Square has clearly stated that it will rectify the signaling behaviors of accounts without holdings or trading data, implementing downgrades for inducing interactions, traffic manipulation, low-quality, and false content, while reducing the recommended flow of such content for a period. For retail investors who rely on square information for decision-making, this is equivalent to adding a layer of "information risk control" at the transaction front: accounts lacking real trading records are suppressed, helping to reduce the interference from baseless signaling on following traders, but it also means that the platform emphasizes verifiable behavior over mere influence in the allocation of discourse power.

The tightening on the security side is more direct. Binance's Chief Security Officer Jimmy Su revealed that the internal red team of Binance conducts simulated phishing attack tests on employees monthly; employees who fail the tests multiple times may face termination. These high-frequency and strict discipline tests do not target specific on-chain addresses or funding paths, but instead reinforce the security boundaries of the exchange as a custody and matching entity, reducing the potential attack surface caused by insufficient employee security awareness. From the user perspective, content rectification reduces the probability of being misled by marketing information, while internal security drills decrease the risk of the platform being breached; combined, these form a tougher "control" and self-defense strategy, as the exchange hopes to redraw the line between traffic and security to ultimately lower the overall risk level of the platform to a more controllable range.

BitMart's Orderly Shutdown: Clean-Up Wave for Small and Medium Exchanges

Compared to leading platforms that control the scene through strengthened content and security governance, BitMart has chosen a different path—an orderly exit. After carefully assessing the company’s operational status, market environment, and future strategic direction, the platform publicly announced that it would terminate its operations and provided a relatively clear timeline: according to the announcement, BitMart plans to close all trading services starting August 26, stop its matching and trading functions, and officially end its operations on January 31 of the following year, gradually exiting the market. This arrangement reflects its attempt to compress uncertainty by planning ahead and disclosing time nodes, aiming to minimize the impact on existing users and partners in terms of information and pace.

For users, a scheduled shutdown means they must finalize accounts and migrate assets before the trading closure, forcing a reshaping of trading habits and platform paths; for project parties and business partners, BitMart’s exit implies the disappearance of a channel for listing and operations, necessitating reassessment of layouts and resource investments on other platforms. From the perspective of industry competition, one end sees leading platforms like Binance continuously ramping up content governance and internal security drills, while on the other end, small and medium platforms like BitMart choose to exit orderly under pressure and uncertainty, both pointing to the trend of increased concentration in the exchange landscape, with the survival space for small and medium platforms continuously squeezed by governance costs and risk exposure.

Crypto Market in an Era of High Valuation: Signals to Watch Next

In the context where the total market value to GDP ratio of global stock markets is about 137%, approaching historical highs, overall risk assets are in a "high valuation era." The traditional market’s enthusiasm for AI themes (e.g., Tesla and SpaceX receiving significant bets) has crowded out the space for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin in narrative and attention; at the same time, on the Bitcoin upgrade front, Galaxy’s research director publicly estimated that BIP-110's signal support rate is expected to be far below the 55% mandatory activation threshold at the activation block, highlighting the reality of insufficient miner consensus on the technical path. In terms of exchanges, on one end, Binance strengthens platform control through content governance and internal security testing, while on the other end, BitMart orderly exits according to its established timetable. This set of signals reflects a differentiation, mapping the trend of increased exchange concentration and the structural adjustment of rising compliance and security costs. Overall, the crypto market is in a re-shuffling phase where narrative competition, technological evolution, and platform landscapes intersect, and in the short term, more attention is needed on whether Bitcoin's subsequent upgrade paths will adjust or restart consensus promotion, how the relative heat of traditional AI and crypto narratives evolves, and the contraction and repositioning of business models for leading and smaller exchanges under regulatory pressure; with limited information available, investors need to approach these signals with cautious assumptions and continuously track the public developments of these key lines.

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